Company Report
Last edited 3 years ago
PerformanceCommunity EngagementCommunity Endorsement
Performance (49m)
4.6% pa
Followed by
184
Straws
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#Bear Case
stale
Added 3 years ago

This one's really going to ruffle a few feathers given AVA's popularity on strawman.

 

Please @ me in the forum tab regarding my work for some constructive feedback/discussion, rather than simply downvoting, its what the purpose of the strawman community is for!

 

Happy reading,

Reece

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#Bear Case
stale
Added 4 years ago

*Just a quick note, I am actually bullish on the stock however i'm trying to highlight some of the potential risks this business has.

 

September 11th, 2020;

After digging into the breakdown of AVA & their subsequent division earnings I have found a concern highlighting their quality of earnings, in particular - customer concentration

For AVA global, 39% of earnings came from a single customer and for FFT approx ~29% was from another single customer.

This high concentration of customers effectively puts AVA's earnings-at-risk as the loss of one of these customers will leave a massive dent in the overall earnings. 

I believe a lot of current valuations are not pricing this risk in and getting results closer to ~0.70c of intrinsic value. 

 

Just my thoughts, and it will be interesting to see the direction of AVA in the near future with the supposed sale of the AVA Services side of the business. 

#Overview
stale
Added 4 years ago

Wow! - what a doozy of a business.

 

These operate in a market that will be ever-expanding over time as long big businesses exist.

It seems they have developed a nice economic moat across the 3 sections of their business offering. It will be nice to see some of these turn into ARR (recurring revenues).

 

The major risks at these stage are potential contract related issues due to COVID. In contrast, the instability of the global political landscape may prompt the need for nations to use AVA to protect key assets. (such as the deal signed in India).

 

Definitely one for the watchlist