Rick, I think your Scenario #3 is quite draconian and flys in the face of commentary by Alf.
Yes gold is down - but only 9% in USD against a year ago. The USD has appreciated plenty against most countries making the take home pay more valuable in the residential currency of just about all countries. I'd imagine a detectorist in Britain would be might keen to get hold of the new models given the way the pound has been pounded! And given the new models I think your 39c eps down to 20c is a bit heavy handed. I'm thinking 25-27c
Plus Alf is talking bullish on comms side of things so I'd expect some improvement over the previous years contribution. I'm working on 20-22c for comms. Roll on Tuesday and hopefully a peak beneath the bonnet.