As I was too busy today on work, I wasn't able to analyze the transcription speech till now.

Here's a few takeaways.

Africa represented $125m in revenue for FY22.

1HFY23 going to be $75m-$80m compared to $138m 1HFY22. So that's a big chunk of revenue missing as a result of Africa/Sudan.

As we know when a military coup happens, lots of uncertainty unfolds and it looks like Codan may have understimated this impact. I saw this first hand as a former holder of Aquarius Platinum which was driven to the ground by the Mugabe regime as a result of part nationalization before his death and I sold out at a 40% loss (Aquarius was eventually taken over below 20c so I count myself "lucky"). It seems this is playing out in Sudan with the military locking up the mines for themselves. But the big negative is slow disclosure of news when you have to get first hand accounts from African news websites instead of direct from Codan,.

There's also some commentary about timing of revenues outside of minelab for the communications division which is a negative at the end.

Still not sure if this is oversold (given MPL fell 18% on a data breach which would be viewed as worse than this) or not, but the timing of disclosures is a bit worrying for me.

[held]

Officially bagholding after this update

Looks like the update on Sudan not very good and the diversification progress is slower.

Sudan is turning to be the next Zimbabwe mugabe era.

Should have listened to myself and just sold like what i did with aquarius platinum

Held]

Falling Gold price doesn't bode well for the Codan share price.

Add to this the increase in working capital by investing in additional inventory to meet future sales which is uncertain at this moment when consumers could be putting there money in more important things other than metal detectors.

Positive news in the non metal detector part of the the business (ie: communications) could perhaps arrest the slide.

I probably added too much at higher prices, tempted to add more here but everyone knows the golden rule of averaging down - unless there is something that you see which the market has missed.

[held]

CDA being removed out of the ASX200

Being replaced by the likes of CXO, BRN, LKE

Partly explains the indiscriminate selling.

FNArena Weekly Insights from Rudy on ASX200 rebalance

With little information available on who is selling or what is causing the share price decline, I think the only way to play Codan is to check the news on Sudan. Which unfortunately isn't good and doesn't bode well for Codan

This is one of the most recent articles regarding Sudan since the military coup.

https://sudantribune.com/article257560/

Sounds like the military wants to form a new government in preparations for elections.

Sounds positive until I noticed that the UN has been deliberately excluded from the process.

This is almost becoming like Zimbabwe 2.0 like what happened to Zimplats and Aquarius Platinum during the Mugabe Regime. But maybe not as bad as Codan is more diversified.

I've also asked around on the holy grail of broker data or an updated top 20 to pinpoint the selling but it seems unfortunately I am unable to get any data on this.

I don't know how much Sudan contributes to Minelab metal detector revenue but I think it is something like $40m from one of the conference call transcripts.

Value play or value trap? Hopefully we get some guidance soon.

Held

CDA on Ausbiz

Key takeaways: Govt contracts with their mine detectors (countermine). Growth in Africa. Consumer business and communications booming. Peter Leahy a former officer on BOD.

Wasn't added to the portfolio as both analysts thought price too high.