Company Report
Last edited 3 years ago
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#Bull Case
stale
Last edited 3 years ago

1.Covid allowed for a Renegotiated buy price of 226 to 131m for PFS Card Services.

2.Safekeeping funds injected into PFSUK of 26.6m likely to be released over the next 12m or at the end of this controlled growth period (appeared as a liability in 2021 accounts).

3.EARN out all but eliminated.

4.Allowances for fines ~10m not likely to be needed.



#Valuation
stale
Last edited 3 years ago

I agree with @Thunderhead that "ultimately there is value looking out long-term - a decent risk/reward proposition."


However, I think it might be undervalued (disclosure I hold) when one considers the renegotiation of the purchase price and the fact the earn out bonus that was to be paid is basically gone.

So if we consider the price before the Ireland issue (~6.00), the recalculation of the purchase price of PCSIL, the elimination of the earn out bonuses as a result of this fiasco + the recent significant value the purchase of Sentenial brings and balance this against the possibility of future revenue the Irish component may face, additional regulatory costs and the CIB fines then, it seems to me that EML although facing short term headwinds in Ireland has potentially acquired an asset at fire sale prices.

In the short term the market looks like it will price EML based on the unknown with this CIB investigation. Therefore, until this issue is settled and investors return to focusing on the underlying company fundamentals this is probably going to be a traders paradise. 

#Central Bank of Ireland Update
stale
Added 3 years ago

Today was a great example of how the market does not like uncertainty! As such, the EML share price has suffered accordingly. Unfortunately, at the moment the overall fundamentals are being put aside as the market assesses what the CBI request means to the future revenue generating ability of PCSIL.  

#ASX Announcements
stale
Last edited 3 years ago

The after market close (16:05) sensitive news release. Why does the ASX even allow this? This could have been delivered earlier in the day. I just cannot believe anyone at the company thought this was a good idea.

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02432753-2A1329570?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
 

There could be a short term negative reaction to this before it becomes clear on what it means.  I expect a drop and then a bounce, as the message is digested and then understood. As a holder in my personal portfolio it's sh.t like this that does my head in. Stupid management games at a time when what is required is clear, well explained messages delivered "during" market hours. 

#ASX Announcements
stale
Added 3 years ago

***KEY Information...

Funding of acquisition and transaction costs.

62.2m AUD Cash + Debt Facility

***50.1m AUD Script issued at "$5.01"

64.4m AUD Earn Out! 

Summary: Automatic upside for holders built in!