Consensus community valuation
$4.44
Average Intrinsic Value
17.2%
Undervalued by
Active Member Straws
#Bull Case
Added 3 months ago

Investor briefing was released on Wednesday, stock popped 11%. See briefing here (https://asx.api.markitdigital.com/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02293421-2A1256231?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4)

EML 'creates secure payments solutions for its customers'

Breaking this presentation down;
- Says it is in a Trillion dollar industry
- 46 contracts signed in the last 2 quarters
- 331 contracts in the pipeline
- Projected $5 billion GDV in 3-4 years
- From 2018 - 2020, retained 99.9% of customers

Where to from here? 
IMO, EML is in a good spot, in the technology sector and leading the way into where the world is heading, online/mobile payments.
Diversified its business with the aquisition of PFS, which helped get away from relying on gift cards, now only making up 30% of revenue.
Little customer churn over the last 3 years. 
52 week high of $5.70, ran too hard at this point and came off
52 week low of $1.20 in COVID March lows
Currently $3.52.
If they continue to signs contracts, there is no doubt that the share price will run up from here.  

Disclaimer: I hold EML in my portfolio

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#ASX Announcements
Added 5 months ago

FY20 Highlights

  • Record underlying EBITDA of $32.5m (excludes acquisition costs) up 10% from $29.7m in FY19
  • Incurred one-off restructure costs of $0.6m in March 
  • June (included in EBITDA) for $1.5m recurring savings (FY21 onwards) 
  • Record NPATA of $24.0m up 17% from $20.6m in FY19
  • Group underlying cash conversion of EBITDA at 110.1% with $118.4m of cash on hand at 30 June
  • Strong financial performance during the first 8 months of the year before COVID-19 impacted trading conditions 
  • The Group has a strong balance sheet with significant cash reserves and no senior secured debt ensuring the Group has the resources to successfully execute on our Strategy and be positioned to take advantage of opportunistic M&A
  • Acquired and commenced integration of Prepaid Financial Services (Ireland) Limited ('PFS'), which pivots the group to generating the majority of Revenues from the General Purpose Reloadable ('GPR') segment, a long term strategic priority
  • Reviewed the Group Strategy post acquisition of PFS in April 2020 and launched Project Accelerator to drive the Group's growth over the next three years
  • Signed and launched major new customers in all verticals with sales pipeline momentum evident in all markets
  • Post COVID-19 sales momentum strengthened by companies seeking digital payment solutions as part of a global trend to move away from cash payments
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#Broker / Analyst Views
Added 4 months ago

BUY - Intelligent Investor view on EML

View Attachment

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#Overview
Added 5 months ago

EML is a payments technology company, that provides customised paymentsolutions to their B2B clients. Not a one trick pony gift card company, and Ithink that will be evident in the future period as the wider company grows andthe Mall gift card sector 'potentially' shrinks. There is a bit of amisconception out there with what EML does and I think it can be simply puthere;

  • EML enter into multiyear contracts with customers to provided tailored solutions to improve their customers customers' experience. EML continually improve their technology and product offering and therefore once a customer is captured the churn of these customers is relatively low.
    • This is why payments companies capture a niche in the payment market 
    • This is also why if payment companies fail to innovate, then they can potentially face losing customers - hence the benefit of R&D and Project Accelerator 
    • This is why EML may be able to carve out niches in the LT, through customised/integrated solutions.


Now to the results

The Good:

  • EML have done an amazing job at managing what is in their control. You can't really fault them here. Once you put the COVID impact aside, the PFS renegotiation/product development/resource allocation have all been awesome - hopefully we see this pay off in the future.
  • Growth in new customers and new verticals is positive and I think this may be underappreciated in the market right now.
    • Incentive programs launched:
      • 10 incentive partener contract on PAYS tech
    • GPR programs launched
      • 2 dozen contracts in Banking, Control Pay, Disbursements & Salary
      • Focus here on Sezzle and Laybuy being guided into multiple regions with EML as a processor.
        • I didn’t appreciate the single touch point focus here, but to be able to onboard a customer once and into EMLs 3 regional processors would be very nice
    • VANS
    • AU Business (smallest business) (aus-biz)
      • 4 dozen opportunities being worked on in pipeline
  • July run rate of GDV - there are a few different ways to model this out and I'll try do it simply in aggregation. Note that this is using the July run rate and factoring in no growth from new business / change in revenue mix / impacts from further lockdowns. Basically, I think we can assume 55m EBITDA for FY21 as a baseline scenario. This would equate to ~$40 in underlying cash inflo

 

Option 1 - Total Business Aggregation ($m)

 

 

 

 

 

 

July GDV Performance

July GDV Annualised

GI

$72.00 

$864.00 

GPR

$835.00 

$10,020.00 

VANS

$727.00 

$8,724.00 

Total

$1,634.00 

$19,608.00 

 

 

 

GDV to Rev

 

90 bps

Total Revenue

 

$176.47 

 

 

 

GP Margin

 

70.00%

GP

 

$123.53 

Less Overheads

 

$68.00 

Underlying EBITDA

 

$55.53 

Underlying Cash Inflow - 70%

 

$38.87 

 

The Bad:

EBITDA margins in H2Fy22 had fallen to 21%, with the COVID & PFS impacts on the numbers I wouldreally prefer to wait for a clean set of numbers to see this wash through thefinancials. My baseline EBITDA margins for the business remains at 30%.

 

The Ugly:

Let's face it theimpact on the malls sector was huge. I found some comments suggestion thatMalls GDV was on track to do 1.1b seldom - the G&I segment's actual FY20performance was $1.175b. My assumption here is that maybe $250m in GDV wasimpacted which converts to

  • $15m revenue
  • $12m GP

The flip side tothis is that 

  • As the G&I segment rebases, which will rebase the entire groups financials, then to call EML a gift card business will become very inaccurate
  • $1.175 was the total G&I GDV for FY20 and in July EML generated $72m in G&I (annual $860m) without considering any seasonal effects.
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#FY21 Q1 Results
Added 3 months ago

EML reported their FY21 Q1 Results. Market popped on the Investor Briefing a few days ago but not much from these results, which is interesting. Worth reading this article which breaks down the details for you.

https://www.raskmedia.com.au/2020/10/21/the-eml-payments-asxeml-share-price-looks-like-a-buy-after-fy21-q1/

EML Con event coming up. For anyone interested, you can sign up for this event at emlpayments.com.au

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#ASX Announcements
Added 5 months ago

8common Announces CardHero Launch Following the Signing of EML Agreement

  • 8common has signed a 3-year agreement with EML Payments Limited to issue prepaid Mastercards through the company’s CardHero platform
  • The agreement with EML enables the launch of 8common’s CardHero solution via two products: CardHero and CardHero+
  • The core product CardHero, will be released as both a virtual and physical prepaid card combined with travel and expense management solutions. CardHero is targeted at government entities and large enterprise clients
  • CardHero+ provides an additional fund disbursement platform which aims to support not for profit organisations and educational institutions

View Attachment

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#Management
Added 5 months ago

Monotone CEO gives fair reasoning as to why no guidance for the Christmas period is provided in an ausbiz interview. Whether this is genuine we won't know until later. Given the overly glossy presentation and the slightly hidden negatives in the report, I'm not filled with over confidence, more a slight distrust. Hopefully unfounded. 

Having said that, I won't be selling anytime soon and may even add. Eml maybe looking to stabalise the S.P over the coming months with the hope that a good number of their prospects pay off. This may create a less sentiment driven S.P. that could be pushing $4.50 by Feb. 

I maybe alone in thinking that this Christmas period could actually be really good for the gift card side of the business. It's the side of the business i like least but i can see it pushing EML forward in the short term. Nervously positive on EML! 

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#Bear Case
Added 5 months ago

Does anyone else have any thoughts on how this business copes with the onslaught of trouble brewing in the retail sector? I'm hoping Christmas renews interest in gift card purchases but other catalysts are out there? It's proving to be a real laggard in a recessionary environment. More so than I would have expected it to be

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#Broker / Analyst Views
Last edited 10 months ago

26-Sep-2019:  Livewire.com: "Buy Hold Sell: 5 hot small caps on a high"

The five stocks discussed in this particular "BHS" episode have appreciated by an impressive 243% on average over the last 12 months. Returns like this are usually divisive, with investors on both sides of the trade declaring them either structural winners, or overpriced hype stocks. High prices, high expectations, but with them, the chance of high returns.

Will the prices crash like Blackmores? Or are they set for years of outsized returns like CSL?

Of the five stocks discussed (ISX, JIN, EML, PET & APT) the two guest analysts - being Arden Jennings, Co-Portfolio Manager at Ausbil Investment Management, and Robert Miller, Portfolio Manager at NAOS Asset Management - only agree on one of them being a "BUY" - and that one is EML - which is discussed from the 2:44 mark in the video.

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