EML's full years results came out slightly ahead of guidance with an EBITDA of $29.1m.

Lots of information packed into the report, presentation as well as the 1.5 hour conference call.

I won't go into the details. The main takeaway for me is that there's substantial earnings visibility for FY20 and EBITDA growth of +35% should be archived relatively easily with the details provided:

• EBITDA exit run-rate is already at $33-34m
• ~$4.5m full year contribution from Flex-e
• ~$1m contribution from further onboarding of Smartgroup customers

With upside "risk" of

• Organic growth across all segments
• US betting gaining futher traction as their partners, Pointsbet and Bet365, gear up. As well as further contract wins.
• VANs is gaining traction with a strategy shift, growing 100%+ in FY19 without much fanfare and with further upside expected.

More guidance to home at the AGM in November.

EBITDA $40m, +35% for FY20 should be easily achievable one would expect.

Just going through some of the numbers before reporting season rolls in.

Feels like they're slightly low-balling their guidance of EBDTA $27-28m - I'm having them come in at slightly higher than $29m. So there's a bit of upside there.

As for FY20 guesstimates at this early stage, it's not to difficult to get a 25%+ ($7.5m+) EBDTA growth figure happening:

• Full incremental contribution of the extended Smartgroup contract - guesstimating $3.5m/year (likely to take longer than FY20 to ramp up).
• $4m/year from the FEC acquisition full contribution.
• Bet365 - New Jersey launch this month. Continued Pointsbet USA growth.
• Other organic growth and contract wins

Main consideration is around continued growth past FY20 and the toppy ~20 FY20 EV/EBTDA multiple.

Expansion of a relationship with Smart Group (SIQ) that will add $4-8m in revenue per year - providing salary packaging payment services. 

A few things that may be under appreciated

• The service offering is much more than payments. It’s more SaaS - payments, categorisation, taxes, business logic, incentives, advice. 
• 8 year contract. Uber didn’t exist in Australia 8 years ago. 
• It’s a 8% boost to revenues and due to operating leverage - quite a bit more to EBTDA. 

If the market ever values EML as a SaaS company with a sticky customer base... watch out!

Stripe Issuing was just recently announced: https://stripe.com/issuing

Most threats, especially of large hortizontal plays going after verticals, tend to be overstated. But this looks like a very feasible one. Stripe has taken out the complexity out of issuing and managing cards - all programmatically. Any company with a need, and a dev team, would no doubt evaluate.