Company Report
Last edited 2 months ago
PerformanceCommunity EngagementCommunity Endorsement
ranked
#18
Performance (39m)
-9.4% pa
Followed by
72
Straws
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#Bear Case
Added 2 months ago

With the sugar hit from high interest rates set to weigh heavily on interest income, it seems the market is taking a dim view of the quality of EML's earnings now, and into the foreseeable future. The share price has copped it quite severely since hitting its highs from earlier in the year.

Is the market missing the forest for the trees in this turnaround story?

#ASX Announcements
stale
Added 8 months ago

Board changes at EML, with the new CEO Kevin Murphy joining as a director, and Conor Haley from Alta Fox Capital stepping down.

I guess the market is concerned about what Alta Fox will do with its stake. Hopefully they stay put to watch the turnaround complete (at a much higher share price too, fingers crossed!).

#Management
stale
Added one year ago

All the directors of the troubled PFS Card Services subsidiary have resigned. Not often you see that, though in this case it's likely a good thing.

#ASX Announcements
stale
Last edited one year ago

That nobody has mused on the results and subsequent rip in EML today is a sad commentary on this former-market-and-Strawman-darling turned giant turd.

Shares are up as the beats on the headline numbers are sizable relative to the top-end of the guidance provided (revenue and "underlying" EBITDA).

The statutory loss is huge largely due to the impairment of goodwill on both PFS and Sentinel, showing what poor capital allocation decisions those were, but the market seems to be overlooking it.

Technically, while it is encouraging that these sizable gains have been locked for the day, there is plenty of overhead resistance yet to come given all the trapped buyers who were repeatedly copping it last year with disappointment after disappointment, and management upheaval.

#ASX Announcements
stale
Added 2 years ago

I guess investors are stoked that the news isn't worse, and that the regulator isn't revoking PFS's license altogether, but today's reaction still seems overly optimistic. Not that I'm complaining - my piddly holding is that teeny bit more consequential in my portfolio now.

#ASX Announcements
stale
Added 2 years ago

Alta Fox has come out with an announcement explaining their sell down, and stating that they won't be selling any more shares and are committed to holding EML "long-term".

Some reassurance for the troubled company and its shareholders.

#ASX Announcements
stale
Added 2 years ago

Unfortunately, the trading halt seems to be related to a letter they received regarding PFS Ireland from the Central Bank of Ireland.

Given how hairy the issues at this subsidiary have been, I would be very surprised if it was good news.

#ASX Announcements
stale
Last edited 2 years ago

Alta Fox filed further increase to 10.24% today. I wonder what their endgame is. Unusual for them to take an interest in such a small concern Down Under.

#Management
stale
Last edited 3 years ago

With the amount of negative surprises thrust upon suffering shareholders over the past couple of years, coupled with a wildly volatile share price performance, the bull case is hanging by a thread here. Insider selling prior to these events is not helping either.

The only positive is this is becoming a more attractive takeover candidate after today's large drawdown, but that is cold comfort to longer-term holders who have been underwater at various junctures over the past few years.

#Valuation
stale
Added 3 years ago

Even if the PCS acquisition is written-off completely (worst case scenario), the shares are trading somewhere close to the fair value for the rest of the company after yet another drop on Friday.

The market will not like such a dire outcome immediately, but ultimately there is value looking out long-term - a decent risk/reward proposition.