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#Risks are rising
stale
Added one year ago

After a week from publishing FY24 result, NextDC in the market to raise $750m and then further reports about them raising $2.9b in debt : https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-12/nextdc-seeks-a-2-9-billion-loan-to-expand-data-centers-in-asia

I have put my full thoughts : https://www.growthgauge.com.au/p/nextdc-asxnxt-fy24-result-review

I reduced my holding today in RL and SM as per this blog -- so wait for it to moon. ( hence I kept some )


#Industry/competitors
stale
Added 2 years ago

Interested to see what the commonalities or not would be.

Data centre owner Equinix latest target of Hindenburg

Bloomberg

Short seller Hindenburg Research targeted data centre owner Equinix, alleging that the company manipulates its accounting and is selling an “AI pipe dream”.

Hindenburg’s disclosure of a short position and its allegations raise questions about the future for Equinix, which has been benefiting from the expectation that artificial intelligence companies will need even more data centres to power the technology.

Equinix shares fell on Wednesday in New York and the company pulled a previously planned bond offering after the report hit.

A representative for Equinix said the firm is investigating the claims.

Hindenburg alleges that the nearly $US80 billion ($122.5 billion) real estate investment trust is manipulating its accounting for a key profitability metric — adjusted funds from operations — and overstated that figure by at least 22 per cent in 2023. The short seller also said Equinix trades at elevated levels even if financials are taken “at face value”.

#Data centre demand
stale
Last edited 2 years ago

Bevin Slattery (NEXTDC founder), has written up some thoughts on where the demand cycle goes from here:

Why growth in Digital Infra has only just begun...

His conclusion:

If the effective size of the prize for having the best LLM on the planet is $10T in market capitalisation over the next 5 years, then what’s the right level of investment to get your piece of that pie? 5%? 10%? 20%? Well that’s the arbitrage. Right now, NVIDIA sold US$60B of chipsets last year. That is less than 1% of the AI prize. Let that sink in. If the world needs 50GW of data centres over the next 3-5 years that will cost US$300B to build. That’s about 3% of the prize.

No one is going to complain about GPU or data centre pricing for the next 3 years because the cost of not investing will be a 10-50x destruction of your market capitalisation. If you don’t keep up, you will be left behind. Just ask Intel…

I don't know if his numbers are right, but I put some weight in the broader point. There's a big prize to be claimed and investors will back investment or risk losing it.


#Bear Case
stale
Added 2 years ago

Bear case from none other than Respeculator. Commenting on where NextDC can find the energy supply to provide the GW

I only follow him mainly because of his mathematical mind.

https://twitter.com/respeculator/status/1762713738296414378

1c3f1f696d23ed8322d0a09b7df2316de461f3.png

I'm not sure how correct this is as I don't know enough about the energy marketplace.

I'm sure NextDC can find some source by constructing a few solar panels/wind turbines near their Data Centres? :)