Wow! Codan is up 16.6% today to $9.80. I must admit the market reaction has surprised me a little. When I looked at the results they appeared to be in line with analyst earnings forecasts (3 analysts, Simply Wall Street data) for FY24 of 43cps. Earnings for the half were 20.9cps, so it seems to be on track. Although Revenues look higher than FY25 consensus (Pro rata). Let’s look at the highlights from the Half Year Accounts.

• Group revenue of $265.9 million, up 26% versus prior corresponding period (“pcp”)

• Net profit after tax of $38.1 million, up 24% versus pcp

• Performance by Communications businesses in line with 10 to 15% revenue growth target range:

• Communications revenues of $153.6 million, up 12.5% versus pcp, segment profit $37.8 million, up 9% versus pcp
• Communications orderbook of $183 million, +12% versus 30 June 2023

• Metal detection revenues up 49% versus pcp, with all divisions contributing to this growth

• Net debt of $82.5 million at 31 December 2023, having funded $30.3 million for the Eagle and Wave Central acquisitions in the period

• Earnings per share of 20.9 cents, up 22% versus pcp

• Interim dividend of 10.5 cents, fully franked

Sourced from the Presentation

Perhaps all the excitement is over the strong communications order book of $183 million, and the Outlook statement (see below) where management expect to “continue targeting revenue growth in the 10 to 15% range. With the benefit of acquisitions made in FY24, Communications overall growth is expected to exceed the top end of the targeted range.”

…and the Outlook

“When considering the outlook for the balance of FY24:

• After normalising for the large Communications project delivered in FY23 (approximately $20 million), and excluding the benefit of acquisitions, the Company continues to target revenue growth in the 10 to 15% range. With the benefit of acquisitions made in FY24, Communications overall growth is expected to exceed the top end of the targeted range; and

• Minelab is targeting a second half result similar to the first half of FY24, with FY24 revenue growth of 20% versus FY23

The Company will continue to keep shareholders updated as H2 FY24 progresses.”

My View

I’m a big fan of Codan and I’m pleased to see the bounce in the share price today, but I’m still trying to get my head around such huge positivity. @Bear77 is a big fan of Codan too, and I’m keen to hear what he has say about the results.

I think shareholders might be looking back at historical PE ratios and thinking now the company is turning around its now worth a multiple of 23 x FY24 earnings? The last time Codan was trading at a PE of 23x was in 2021 before the Russian Wagner Group all but destroyed artisanal gold mining in Africa. The gold detector business has a higher return on equity than the communications business and we have seen ROE fall from 32% to 17% since 2021 as a result. If someone could get the gold plundering, murderous Russian paramilitary out of Africa then Codan would be back on ROE above 30%. Putin needs the gold to fund the Ukrainian war, so pulling out of Africa is highly unlikely, unless he ends up with some Novichock in his underpants! ( ‘Navalny’ free on SBS is a must watch! A great man murdered by Putin).

Codan is rebuilding and diversifying its business and I expect ROE to improve to low 21% over the next 3 years. I think the current PE multiple is looking a bit high.

Valuation

Once again I’ll use McNiven’s Formua to value Codan assuming ROE 21%, Equity $2.31 per share (1H24 balance sheet), reinvested earnings 50%, and a required return (RR) of 10%, I get a valuation of $8.60. There’s no doubt Codan is a high quality business, but it’s starting to look a bit pricey. It’s one of our largest holdings IRL (9%) and in my top three on SM (14.8%). However, I think it’s HOLD at these prices. I’m certainly not a seller.

Codan have released their half yearly results to the market

CODAN H1 FY24 RESULTS

H1 FY24 HIGHLIGHTS:

·        Group revenue of $265.9 million, up 26% versus prior corresponding period (“pcp”)

·        Net profit after tax of $38.1 million, up 24% versus pcp

·        Performance by Communications businesses in line with 10 to 15% revenue growth target range:

·        Communications revenues of $153.6 million, up 12.5% versus pcp, segment profit $37.8 million, up 9% versus pcp

·        Communications orderbook of $183 million, +12% versus 30 June 2023

·        Metal detection revenues up 49% versus pcp, with all divisions contributing to this growth

·        Net debt of $82.5 million at 31 December 2023, having funded $30.3 million for the Eagle and Wave Central acquisitions in the period

·        Earnings per share of 20.9 cents, up 22% versus pcp

·        Interim dividend of 10.5 cents, fully franked

The HY23 figures are quite an increase on the FY23 figures with revenue and net profit up around 25% with Minelab and the Africa operations improving quite a bit.

My current valuation of Codan is as follows:

Current assumed FYNPAT of $80 Million ($38.1m + $38.1m x 10%)

This is a growth stock and they have delivered significant revenue and earnings growth for a number of years apart from recent reduction in group revenue/ profits due to ongoing disruptions in Minelab’s African market but with this market now coming back and with recent acquisitions and strong R&D believe this will continue to improve over the next year or so.

There are around 181,307,400 SOI,

So With a NPAT of $80m gives us a NPAT per share of $0.44124

Now that there is growth in the company again I have revised my PE to 20,

Assuming a PE of 20 gives a valuation of $1.60 Billion or $8.82 per share

My revised valuation is $8.82 per share

29-Nov-2023: Codan have made an Acquisition-Announcement.PDF this morning. They are paying an upfront cash payment of $9.1 million plus additional payments of up to $12.2 million if certain earn-out targets are achieved over the next 3 years. The acquisition consideration will be funded from Codan’s existing debt facility, so there will be no CR.

Codan's wholly owned subsidiary, Domo Broadcast Holdings LLC, has entered into a binding agreement to acquire 100% of the shares of Wave Central LLC (Wave Central), with completion to occur on 1 December 2023. Wave Central’s founders and senior management have all joined Codan’s Tactical Communications Broadcast division, Domo Broadcast, and will remain in the Wave Central business. Wave Central is a leading North American systems integrator of wireless broadcast equipment and creates industry specific products integrated with Domo Broadcast’s technology for sports, cinema and broadcast applications. Their product portfolio consists primarily of wireless video camera links and high-quality broadcast products using core Domo Broadcast technology. Wave Central has been Domo Broadcast’s primary distribution channel into the North American market for 15 years.

This is another smart acquisition by a top-quality management team at Codan. As usual, the acquisition is small, it's a good fit, it adds capability within an area of core competency, and much of the acquisition cost is dependent on the acquired company continuing to perform within expectations as part of the larger Codan business. And, again, the people who built this company up are coming across with the company and will continue to run it.

The market seems a little unsure about this so far, based on the Codan share price movement today (no real strong move either way), but they have been in an upward trajectory lately, and I don't see this announcement derailing that uptrend in any way.

Another good acquisition!

With gold prices at record levels, and forecasted to continue to increase, Codan's metal detection business could be a beneficiary.

The next set of results will be interesting.

10-Oct-2023: I received this email today: Domo Tactical Communications (DTC) and TrellisWare Technologies Partner to Deliver Multiple Waveform Capabilities to a Single Tactical Radio

I hold Codan shares and I've been impressed by the way they've growns their Comms Division while their Metal Detection (Minelab) division has experienced some headwinds (various issues in Sudan and other parts of Africa, Afghanistan, Russia/Ukraine, etc.). They have always found a way to grow, and they have proven recently that when one division faces headwinds, they can still grow their other division at a decent rate.

Interestingly, this news (in that email) does not appear to have been released to the ASX announcements platform this week, so probably had little to do with today's +2.89% SP rise, unless people who already hold Codan and are also on their email list were topping up...

It's a good looking graph, and we weren't saying that 11 months ago when they were trading at around $4/share.

Perspective, it's a wonderful thing:

So, still good, and certainly a superb 12 month chart, but that 5 year share price chart shows how far they have fallen, i.e. by about -80% from around $20 to around $4. I don't think they're currently worth $20/share, and they also weren't worth $20 share in 2021 when they got up there, but I think they'll certainly be worth $20/share in the future. They had too much growth already priced in during the first half of 2021, but they are now back to somewhere between cheap and reasonably priced, IMO. I'm happy to have them as my largest position here, and also either the largest or second largest position in my two largest real life (or real money) portfolios (one of which is my SMSF). Very well run, and they design, build and sell quality products that people need and buy. Lots to like!

Today (18/10/2022) on “the Call” Scott Phillips, Chief Investment Officer at The Motley Fool, called Codan a CAUTIOUS BUY. Here is what Scott had to say about Codan (Below is my transcript. It’s not complete, so my apologies if I’ve missed anything significant).

“When the gold price spikes, their sales go through the roof because it’s worth the time and effort to prospect.

The communications business is reasonably defensive due to the customer list, although plenty of mines can go out of business with the wrong sort of circumstances. So you can’t assume it’s necessarily perpetual…but it’s reasonably reliable.

The gold detector business in the past has been really cyclical and you do see massive crashes in the volumes, and the numbers can fall something like two-thirds in a year if the gold price falls. You’ve got to be really careful you are not buying this business in a cyclical high.

They’ve also had some issues in the past with counterfeit products. Minelab is their brand and they’ve had some counterfeit products, particularly out of China. They’ve done a heap of work to make sure that’s not something that’s going to keep hurting them.

Here is my concern with Codan. We know in the past it’s been really cyclical, but at 9 times earnings it seems really cheap. If you look at the earnings they are at record highs.

If the earnings are sustainable and structural it means you are getting a bargain, but you could be buying 9 times peak earnings.

If you go back 3 or so years, the earnings were half of what they are today. If it (earnings) goes back to those levels, then all of a sudden you are paying 17 to 18 times earnings, and that looks ugly.

I am going to put a cautious buy on this one; it’s a very well run business. I would have said hold or sell without the communications acquisitions, but I think there is enough to say there is some heft and they are much less cyclical then they used to be.

You should expect there to be volatility in earnings, but if you’ve got a long term perspective I dare say buying Codan on single digit earnings, even with record profits, I think is a pretty good place to start. I’ll make it a cautious buy from me!”

Philip Pepe from Shaw and Partners had a different view, calling Codan a HOLD. This is what Philip had to say:

”It was dominated by metal detection historically but recent acquisitions over the last 12 months put communications at about 52% of its revenue.

Historically it has been limited to the gold sector and investors still think of it that way, so it’s come off with the gold price. It’s trading at nearly all time lows.

It sells communication equipment to defence forces, so that’s obviously strong with what’s happening at the moment. How long will that last? Probably OK for the foreseeable future. But clearly the link to the gold price is weighing on it.

So for me it’s about two companies in one. Half the business is doing well and growing and half the business is going backwards due to the gold detectors.

Ugly chart!!! If you’ve held for this long I would hold on in hope the acquisitions continue to deliver and the gold price recovers, but I certainly wouldn’t buy at this price. It’s a HOLD for me.

Now this might just be an exaggerated case of confirmation bias on my behalf, but If you were to consider what Scott and Philip have said about Codan today, and weigh that up with what market strategist and historian, Russell Napier, said about defence (one of the sectors that will do very well), and what he is saying about gold:

“Gold will do well once people realise that inflation won’t come down to pre-2020 levels but will settle between 4 and 6%. The disappointing performance of gold this year is somewhat clouded by the strong dollar. In yen, euro or sterling, gold has done pretty well already.” https://themarket.ch/interview/russell-napier-the-world-will-experience-a-capex-boom-ld.7606

…then Codan might turn out to be a good business for investors with a long term perspective.

Held: IRL (10%), Strawman (11%)

Outlook (FY22 Results Report)

While general business conditions remain challenging, we continue to focus on building a more predictable and diversified sales base, delivering long term shareholder value. In relation to the FY23 outlook:

• Sales and marketing initiatives and global business development activities have resumed across all businesses;

• The business conditions Minelab experienced in the second half of FY22 are expected to continue into the first half of FY23;

• We expect Minelab’s second half sales to improve as business development activities continue and additional new Minelab products are released;

• We have a strong Communications orderbook of $149 million and a growing pipeline of quality opportunities;

• Tactical Communications is focussed on business development opportunities, in particular military programs, given the increased instability in the world;

• Zetron is now successfully integrated and the business expects to realise greater sales synergies in FY23; and

• The business will continue to manage inflationary pressures to maintain profitability, maximise cash generation and seek to execute on its acquisition strategy.

“We believe that our Communications business will achieve strong growth in FY23. As explained above, Minelab’s sales in the first half of FY23 may not reach the level achieved in FY22, however with new product releases we are confident of a stronger second half.”

The Board will provide a further business update at the Annual General Meeting on October 26, 2022, which will be a hybrid meeting with in-person and virtual attendance, to provide all shareholders with the ability to participate.

Live Webcast – FY22 Full-Year Financial Results Announcement A results briefing will be hosted by Managing Director, Alf Ianniello, at 11:00am (Australian Eastern Standard Time) on 18 August 2022. This briefing will be available via the following link – 2022 Full Year Results Announcement

What a difference a conference call can make!

I chased the buy button up from $8.00 up and got left behind!

I haven’t revalued Codan yet but I think the long term outlook for the business is strong and if we ignore the exceptional result from metal detector sales achieved in FY21, the trend in the metal detector sales should continue into the future.

It’s also worth noting that there is strong growth in the communications business which now makes up 30% of the profits.

My gut feeling without looking at the details in the financial statement is that the business is still cheap!

Some good straws from Rick and Rocket6 on the CDA results. I thought I would just add some of my thoughts after listening to their conference call.

• The minelab market while significant to the buisness is probably not going to be growing much larger than it currently is over the next few years. I don't think it will shrink but will probably stay around the 230-300m revenue level depending on market access, gold proces and new model releases and uptakes etc.
• GPX 6000 not selling as well as hoped but they are implementing sales strategies to educate consumer on the benefits --> made primarily for the african market and it can detect lower grades so is a good unit but these benefits need to be sold to consumer to get the upgrade.
• Are now selling units into Southern Sudan, but Northern Sudan is still locked out. Indian expansion on track and going well.
• I thought it was a solid update on the minelab buisness and pretty much as expected.
• Guidance was for Minelab for a poor H1 FY23 (relatively) and expected revenue to be less than H1 FY22 (137m) but expect H2 to improve as new recreational units are released to market. I think the H1 numbers will depend on how well the GPX6000 sells over the next few months, next update in October.

• The communications segment is growing fast and will become a bigger component of the buisness over time. The Zetron and DTC aqcuisitions looks really good with both ahead of EBITA year 1 targets, achieving 15m and 19m (vs year 1 target of 8 and 14m).
• Good commentary around how these acquisitions and how they have been successfully integrated. I get the feeling that future growth will come from the communications segment and I like how these acquisitions enable them to move up the value chain and supply end to end tender solutions. Still plenty of work to realise potential but they have positioned themselves well fo rthe opportunity.
• Orderbook increased by 23-24% for both and now sits at 149m and have guided for strong growth in FY23.

I think the selloff is pretty understandable as the Minelab guidance wasn't great, but I think if your happy to look through that and back management, then I didn't see anything here that would spook me. I think it is fairly valued around the $9-10 mark based on current numbers. I am still happy to hold and collect the $0.15 dividend.

To put McNivens StockVal formula to the test, I thought it would be interesting to do a case study on one company using the formula to work out valuations over the past 8 years and compare these valuations with what actually happened to the share price. This should be a good evaluation of StockVal…right?

As you can imagine, this took a little while to do, but the task was made a lot easier by using a spreadsheet @PortfolioPlus prompted me to build recently.

Below is the comparison of the StockVal valuation for Codan (Orange) compared to the actual share price at the end of June each FY (blue line). The valuations were based on the ROE and Equity value for each FY, and using a Required Return (RR) of 10% and also factoring in the value of franking credits with the dividends. Interesting…Right?

As you can see, if you bought Codan after 2015 based on Codan trading at a discount to valuation for over 5 years, you would have done quite well. It’s worth noting that Codan is now trading at the biggest discount since 2017 based on the StockVal formula. Mind you, I have also pulled back the 2022 ROE of 30% to 26% for the current valuation of Codan. This is the only year I have changed the ROE used in the formula to that actually reported in the FY results. I find this a comparison very interesting and informative and gives me more confidence in using StockVal as a one of the tools for valuation of profitable businesses.

This chart is interesting also. The variables considered in the StockVal formula:

Concerned about the possibility of Minelab losing its moat as a world leader in gold detectors, I decided to do some extensive research! Since I don’t have a talking mirror like the Wicked Witch in the fairy tale ‘Snow White’, I decided to ask Google.

‘Hey Google, Google, who makes the best gold detector in the world?’

Google replied ‘I found five on the website popsci.com. The best overall was Minelab Equinox…blah blah.’ (Try this yourself, it’s fun!).

That was enough for me. Who could argue against the wisdom of Google!

And like the Wicked Witch, I might just keep asking Google this same question each year until I find out that Minelab no longer makes the best gold detector in the world, at which point I will become absolutely furious and sell all my shares! :)

Seriously though, most of the reviews I found on the internet came up with Minelab detectors as #1

https://www.popsci.com/gear/best-metal-detectors-for-go

Decided to give Codan a call just to see what I could find out in regards to the languishing share price.

What came out of the chat we probably already know however the conversation kept returning to Africa and the on-going and in fact increasing disruption to the business as a direct result of military coups and the difficulty in gaining any clarity and/or certainty of what is exactly happening.

My take....based on the tone of the conversation and the fact they never provided guidance when results were presented back in August I'd be surprised if next weeks update and guidance didn't disappoint.

For those holding I hope I'm wrong but I've decided to opt out and wait for the release next week as the safer option.

I don’t disagree with @Jimmy. I don’t expect to see Codan surprise to the upside in 1H 2023 simply because of the gold price. I don’t think I’m the only one thinking this, however I think much of the short-term outlook is already priced in.

The 2 year gold chart looks awful, similar to Codan’s share price. This will be weighing heavily on Minelab sales this half.

https://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html

To be buying Codan now, you have to believe that the gold price will turn around over the next 6 months. I believe it will, and I am still slowly adding Codan shares with a view to hold for the long-term, for at least 2-3 years.

For the gold price to improve the US dollar will need to come off it’s highs as there is an inverse relationship between the two. A US recession might do this? So is it possible Codan could be a hedge against a US recession?

In the mean time, I think the communications business will continue to grow and the dividends will be enough to pay its way until the gold price cycle improves. Unless of course, gold as an appreciating asset becomes a thing of the past? Anything is possible.

21-Sep-2022: Codan released their 2022 Annual Report today. You can view the ASX copy by clicking here or they should upload it to the Annual Reports section of their website within the next couple of days: https://codan.com.au/investor-centre/annual-reports/

This image was interesting:

Notice the brand of the unit that is sending the video and audio of this Fox Sports interview with Australian Men's Cricket Test Team Captain Pat Cummins wirelessly to the broadcast van? Yep, DTC. Owned by Codan, and DTC won Codan's largest ever contract in FY22.

I have also highlighted their 30% ROE there and their record results. It's worth noting that despite people continuing to forecast that Codan is a business in decline, they show little evidence of that. Their year-on-year growth has been excellent. Revenue and earnings continue to increase, year after year.

Alf's CEO Report was also worth a read:

You can click on those images to make them larger, or use the link at the top of this straw to view the original document (their FY22 Annual Report, released today).

I won't go on... I'll wrap this up with this overview of the business:

Comms will probably eclipse Metal Detection in the near term, but Metal Detection will resume it's growth again at some point also. Comms is doing VERY well. Note that they spent $46 million on R&D in FY22, equivalent to 9% of their sales (operating revenue, which was $506.1m). This is a high quality company with a high ROE and top shelf management who are very well placed within their chosen industries of metal detection and communications, paying a good dividend yield, and reinvesting in themselves as well via strong Research and Development so that they remain at the cutting edge. There's really not too much to dislike, just the share price trajectory really. Codan remains a major position in all of my major real life portfolios, and I also hold Codan here in my SM virtual portfolio. Happy to load up down here and trim the positions when they get positively re-rated by the market again.

This straw is more about personal justification for doubling down on Codan with the share price falling to a 3 year low of $4.81 on Friday.

We now hold 11% IRL by weight across our portfolios after adding more Codan shares on Friday. It is our second largest holding behind BHP.

How bad can Codan’s result get for FY23 before it looks expensive at today’s share price? We should get more insight on Wednesday at the AGM.

Scenario 1

The ‘herd’ of analysts (7 analysts S&P Global data, provided by Simply Wall Street) have average forecast earnings at 56 cps. Commsec analyst forecast earnings are 57.5 cps. If 56 cps is correct, Codan is now trading on a FY23 PE of 8.6. That would be super cheap! But I think the ‘herd’ of analysts are too optimistic about FY23 earnings.

Scenario 2

Working on the theory that the ‘bold’ analyst forecasts are more accurate than the herd, and using the lowest outlier for FY23 earnings of 50cps. This puts Codan on a FY23 PE of 9.7. That still sounds cheap. But I think that’s still too optimistic.

Scenario 3

Now I’m going to assume that earnings from the metal detector business almost halves (down from 39 cps to 20 cps) and earnings from the communication business is flat (17 cps) for FY23. That puts total FY23 earnings at 37 cps compared to 56 cps for FY22. That would put Codan on a FY23 PE of 13. That still doesn’t sound too expensive for Codan given the low gold prices. You could argue Codan is in a cyclical low.

I’m not trying to convince anyone here. I’m really just documenting my thoughts and preparing myself psychologically ahead of the AGM update on Wednesday, and preparing for the reaction the market might have to it. I’m hoping it doesn’t get much worse than Scenario 3.

Edit: AGM Wednesday, not Tuesday

Consolidated Return on Equity

Up until FY21 Codan steadily improved ROE, reaching a peak of 32.4% in FY21. For FY21 Commsec data shows Codan’s ROE as 27.4%. In the FY22 Presentation Codan reported ROE as 30%. Why are the reported ROE values different?

The difference comes down to how the ROE values were calculated. Codan has calculated ROE as the NPAT/Average Shareholder Equity (FY22). Average Shareholder Equity is the average of the equity at the beginning and the end of the financial year.

Commsec calculate ROE as NPAT/Ending Shareholder Equity (FY22). I note this is also how ROE is calculated on Simply Wall Street data. This method of calculating ROE generally results in a lower value (unless equity actually declines). Which method is correct?

I don’t know if there is an accounting standard for calculating ROE, but in my opinion if ROE is being used for valuation purposes it should be calculated as NPAT/ Equity at beginning of the financial year. This would be inline with how you would calculate the yield on a term deposit.

This is not the point of this straw. I thought it was worth mentioning given the discrepancy in reported ROE values.

Source: Commsec, 27 September 2022

Codan’s Segment Performance

Codan business consists of two key segments, Metal Detection and Communications. Codan’s overall performance over the past 5 years has been very strong. Codan has grown earnings by over 22% per year, Gross Margins are over 50%, Net Profit Margins are c. 20%, ROE has been around 30% and net debt on equity has been less than 8%.

Over the past 5 years the revenue contribution by the communications segment has grown substantially, from 26% to 48% (See chart below).

Source: Codan’s FY22 Presentation

Codan management sees increasing revenue from the communications segment as a good thing as it helps to diversify the business and increases resilience. However, what impact is the communications segment having on the overall performance of the business?

Segment Net Profit Margins

The chart below shows that the communications segment is contributing 29% of the net profit while the metal detection segment is contributing 71% of the net profit. Therefore net profit margins for the two segments are, Metal Detection 27% and Communications 12% (See the table below for segment revenues). Unless communication margins improve there will be some dilution of net Profit margins as the communications segment grows.

Segment Return on Assets

Referring to the table above, the communications segment generated $29.2M of profit from $351.4M in assets (ROA 8.3%), while the metal detection segment generated $70.9M of profit from $199.6M in assets (ROA 35.5%). The communication segment is significantly more asset heavy generating 29% of the net profits from 64% of the total assets. Metal Detection is generating 71% of the net profits from 35% of the total assets. As the communications segment grows Codan will become more asset heavy.

Segment Return on Equity

I found segment ROE much more difficult to estimate. I couldn’t find equity values for each segment in the FY22 reports so I have assumed that the equity for each segment was proportionate to the assets (this assumption might be flawed).

If this assumption is correct the Communications Segment has a ROE of 13.3%, while the Metal Detection has a ROE of 60% (See markups on the table above). I have a hunch the Metal Detection ROE has been overstated here.

The impact of the growing communications segment on consolidated ROE will become evident over the next few years. It will be important to keep an eye on the ROE trend from here.

Performance Dilution

It would appear that while the communications segment is helping to diversify the business, it is also having the effect of diluting the high performance metrics typical of the metal detection segment. As the communications segment grows to become a larger part of the consolidated revenue, Codan’s ROE is likely to decline. Unfortunately this will also have an impact the valuation.

Revised Valuation

I have reworked my valuation of Codan based on a lower ROE of 23% and earnings growth of 6.5% per year over the next 3 years. Using McNiven’s StockVal formula and my required return of 10%, my current valuation for Codan is $8.70.

Disc: Held IRL (10%) and SM (12%).

As I was too busy today on work, I wasn't able to analyze the transcription speech till now.

Here's a few takeaways.

Africa represented $125m in revenue for FY22.

1HFY23 going to be $75m-$80m compared to $138m 1HFY22. So that's a big chunk of revenue missing as a result of Africa/Sudan.

As we know when a military coup happens, lots of uncertainty unfolds and it looks like Codan may have understimated this impact. I saw this first hand as a former holder of Aquarius Platinum which was driven to the ground by the Mugabe regime as a result of part nationalization before his death and I sold out at a 40% loss (Aquarius was eventually taken over below 20c so I count myself "lucky"). It seems this is playing out in Sudan with the military locking up the mines for themselves. But the big negative is slow disclosure of news when you have to get first hand accounts from African news websites instead of direct from Codan,.

There's also some commentary about timing of revenues outside of minelab for the communications division which is a negative at the end.

Still not sure if this is oversold (given MPL fell 18% on a data breach which would be viewed as worse than this) or not, but the timing of disclosures is a bit worrying for me.

[held]

Rick, I think your Scenario #3 is quite draconian and flys in the face of commentary by Alf.

Yes gold is down - but only 9% in USD against a year ago. The USD has appreciated plenty against most countries making the take home pay more valuable in the residential currency of just about all countries. I'd imagine a detectorist in Britain would be might keen to get hold of the new models given the way the pound has been pounded! And given the new models I think your 39c eps down to 20c is a bit heavy handed. I'm thinking 25-27c

Plus Alf is talking bullish on comms side of things so I'd expect some improvement over the previous years contribution. I'm working on 20-22c for comms. Roll on Tuesday and hopefully a peak beneath the bonnet.

Wow big hole right where it hurts! actually that is not right. i thought the new businesses where vulnerable not detecting. what is most disappointing about this downgrade is not the downgrade itself, hardware sales are lumpy and with a dodgy (inconsistent) customer base you are bound it hit an air pocket every now and then. it is that i thought mgt was on top of this Sudan situation, it has been around for a while. it sort of feels they have little idea what is going on over there. maybe no one wants to get on the ground, understandable. i felt we were on teh way out of this mess not still diving into it. time in the sin bin for this stock. also a clear example why it is not a top quality stock, eg CSL as i have mentioned before.

disc held in SM and IR (42nd largest holding before today!)

Codan’s Key Indicators remain very strong also, ROE 30%, Net Profit Margin 20%. I can’t wait to dig deeper into the report, but very pleased with the highlights.

FY22 RESULTS

 Highlights:

• Record underlying net profit after tax of $100.5 million, representing an increase of 3% over FY21

• Codan group sales increased 16% to $506 million

• More balanced and stable revenues across the Codan group

• DTC and Zetron exceeded first year acquisition targets achieving $19 million and $15 million EBITDA respectively

• DTC secured largest contract award in the company’s history

• Annual dividend 28.0 cents, fully franked (interim 13.0 cents, final 15.0 cents)

• Statutory earnings per share 56 cents

• Return on equity of 30%

Australian-based technology company, Codan Limited (ASX:CDA), today announced a record underlying and statutory net profit after tax of $100.5 million for the year ended 30 June 2022.

Directors announced a final dividend of 15.0 cents per share, fully franked, bringing the full-year dividend to 28.0 cents, up 4% for the year. This dividend has a record date of 26 August 2022 and will be paid on 7 September 2022.

Chief Executive Alf Ianniello said “Despite a challenging operating environment, Codan delivered another record profit year. We have been able to successfully execute on our strategy and as a result, the business has grown and diversified its sales base. The business today has much stronger foundations and with a well-balanced portfolio of sales, there is more stability in the business.”

“It is very pleasing to see DTC and Zetron both delivering results exceeding our year one expectations. The DTC and Zetron acquisition and integration processes have been a success and we now have a framework that is proven and repeatable.”

FY22 in summary:

• Maintained 20% NPAT margins despite global inflationary pressures;

• In-country business development and geographic expansion initiatives are underway post covid travel restrictions;

• Maintained continuous supply to customers despite global supply chain challenges;

• Minelab achieved its second highest sales result despite ongoing geo-political disruptions and an unprecedented level of demand during FY21;

• Minelab Countermine business achieved record sales of $22 million;

• Development of several new metal detector products has progressed well and we are on track for late first half FY23 product releases;

• Codan, via DTC, was awarded its largest ever contract with a leading global technology company and we have delivered against the first purchase order;

• Further strengthened our Communications segment by acquiring Broadcast Wireless Systems;

• Zetron exceeded $100 million in sales as a result of securing numerous large contracts; and

• Increased the Communications orderbook by 23% to $149 million.

My first straw since the festive season began. It’s been nice to have a break from the market and enjoy the family. It’s nice to see the market bounce in January! I guess it’s time to get back to reading the company updates once again!

@Solvetheriddle referred to the Uhrig Family buying more shares. In fact the Uhrig Family recently added on-market $11.4 million in Codan shares increasing their holding from 14.5% to 15.5%. The Uhrig Family is the largest single shareholder in Codan. But what connection does the Uhrig Family have with Codan. It turns out the family has over 37 years involvement with Codan.

John Uhrig was Chairman and Non-Executive Director of Codan for over 20 years (January 1986 to May 2007). He oversaw the successful ASX listing of Codan in 2006. He was 77 back then.

The current Chairman, David Simmons noted John Uhrig as an apology at the 2022 AGM, which would make John 94 years old today.

John Uhrig has broad industry and manufacturing experience and has participated in and contributed to a variety of government and community bodies. He was formerly a director of ASX listed companies Westpac Banking Corporation (1989 to 2000) and chairman 1992 to 2000), Santos Limited (1991 to 2001) and chairman (1994 to 2001) and Rio Tinto Limited (1983 to 2001) and chairman (1987 to 2001). He was formerly chairman of the Australian Manufacturing Council, deputy chairman of Rio Tinto plc, managing director of Simpson Holdings Limited and Brinsmead Electrical Industries Pty Ltd, a foundation member of the National Companies and Securities Commission and a director of B Seppelt & Sons Limited and the Export Finance and Insurance Commission.

I couldn’t find any information about other members of the Uhrig Family. I’m very curious to find out more if there is anyone in the Strawman community who knows about the family.

https://codan.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Annual-Report-2006.pdf

Cheers,

Rick

Disc: Held IRL and SM.

(Edit: $11.4 million shares added)

05-March-2023: I was particularly impressed with a few company's reports during February, and Codan's wasn't one of them, not because they didn't meet my expectations, but because they did. It was a solid report, as I expected it would be, so a solid tick. The ones that impressed me more were the ones that did exceed my expectations, and the best one of those for my money was Lycopodium - and I've added significantly more to my LYL position since their report and ahead of their ex-div date. I've discussed the LYL report and dividend in my 23-Feb update to my LYL valuation (which in my case is a "price target" rather than an IV - intrinsic valuation - and I raised it again) - which you can find here. [Scroll down for the 23rd Feb update, towards the end of it.]

In terms of reports which beat the market's low expectations, here are 3 companies that I believe fall into that category (including Codan) with links to their announcements and presentations. If you click on the company name, you'll get taken to their "investors" webpage.

1. Macquarie Telecom (MAQ):  Announcement, Presentation.
2. Aussie Broadband (ABB): Announcement, Presentation.
3. Codan (CDA): Announcement, Presentation, GeoConex Acquisition Announcement.

The relative share price improvements since the day BEFORE they reported up to Friday (3rd March) - so their share price movement since they reported - is +9.2%, +15% and +6.3%. The LYL SP has moved up +9.9% since they reported.

Only one of them has gone ex-div since they reported, and that company is Codan who went ex-div on Feb 23rd for a 9c/share FF (fully franked) dividend, so if you add that 9c to their current share price (of $5.59), you get a gain of +8% (instead of +6.3%) since the day before they posted their results. And the franking credits are a bonus on top - if you can use them.

Codan are still plenty down in share price terms on where they were a few years ago, but all they can do is continue to successfully navigate through the headwinds and tailwinds that they face. The share price will take care of itself over time.

Codan’s Metal Detection business (Minelab) is not growing as it was in previous years due mostly to unrest in Sudan and other parts of Africa, but their Comms (Communications) division is going really well and has now powered ahead of their Metal Detection division in terms of revenue generation.  

Disclosure: I'm a happy holder of Codan, Lycopodium, Aussie Broadband and Macquarie Telecom both in real life and here in my virtual Strawman.com portfolio.

P.S. - see here for my thoughts on MAQ and their H1 report.

Including this:

That's the 5 year return (not annualised) on equal investments in MAQ, NXT (NextDC, data centre manager), TNT (Tesserent, a cybersecurity company) and TLS (Telstra being Australia's largest Telco), without any dividends. TNT and NXT don't pay dividends. MAQ haven't paid dividends since 2018 (because they are reinvesting profits back into the business to facilitate growth) and even if you add in Telstra's dividends, they don't come anywhere near the +255% return that MAQ has provided, and with MAQ you get exposure to all of the themes/industries that the other 3 companies provide exposure to individually. I created that graph on Feb 21st, on the evening that MAQ reported their results, and MAQ's SP has risen +9% since then, so the variance has only become greater now.

04-May-2023: Investor-Presentation.PDF

CDA is off a few (2 to 3) cents today on the back of this Investor Presentation at the 2023 Macquarie Conference (link above). That could possibly be due to the following slide which suggests they are on target (based on their FY2023 H1 results) to approximately match FY21 but be below the record results they achieved in FY22:

No change to the investment thesis. Still a great company that has succesfully diversified their revenue into two distinct areas, Metal Detection and Communications (Comms). They have managed to grow their Comms division very nicely over the past couple of years.

It will be interesting to see how the record high gold price affects the sales of their Minelab gold detectors over the next year or two.

Disclosure: I hold Codan shares. They are either my largest or second largest position (along with NST) in all of my major portfolios, and here on SM as well.

08-Aug-2023: Late in the day, Codan released this: Canaccord-Investor-Presentation.PDF which they will present at the Cannacord Annual Growth Conference in Boston MA (Massachusetts) on Thursday 10th August (Wednesday night our time).

The deck is 16 slides, so here's a sample; just the cover page and 8 slides:

As you can see - they're really pushing their Comms division, and Zetron in particular (end-to-end mission critical comms solutions). Comms has now overtaken Metal Detection (Minelab) in terms of group revenue contribution as well as earnings, and Comms will continue to be the main driver of growth for the foreseeable future I would expect. Minelab will have good years and bad years but Comms will be more stable with continued and more dependable growth, in my opinion.

I also like that they're not only presenting in the USA to global investors, but they've tailored the presentation to the USA and made it relevant to them.

Disclosure: Codan is the largest position in my biggest real life portfolio and the second largest position in my SMSF (behind NST), and Codan is also the largest position here in my SM virtual portfolio (currently representing 15.5% of my SM portfolio), so you could say I'm bullish on Codan, and was even more bullish when they were trading at sub-$5 for most of the last quarter of last year and the beginning of January this year; they got down to $3.64 at one point in December! Lately they've been trading in a range of between $7.50 and $8/share, and they still look like good value here to me. But I already hold plenty.

Their latest acquisition once again makes strategic sense and adds to their current capabilities. Great management. Great company. And now they're doing a bit of self-promotion in the US - which can only help their sales and their share price I reckon. I'll be watching on Thursday to see if there's any SP spike (they present this in Boston on Thursday).

The company released a trading update after market close today. The headlines are pretty dismal and I suspect the market will react savagely tomorrow. Revenue is down 10% and underlying NPAT is down 35%.

The metal detection business, with its biggest market in war torn North East Africa, and with the disappearance of the Russian market, continues to struggle, despite a continuous pipeline of new product developments which we are always told are well received.

The communications business is the rising star, accounting for well over 50% of revenue now. Revenue in this segment increased 14% and profit margin improved from 21% to 25%. (Still less than the detection profit margin of 32%). The forward order book of $163m is 60% of the entire FY23 revenue for this segment.

I still have great faith in the management of the company, and admire the way they have pivoted the business to a more predictable and growing source of revenue. No doubt there will be more short term pain for rusted on shareholders such as myself, but there is still a lot to like for those willing to be patient.

The investor call this morning was a curiously muted affair, possibly because the results for the full year have already been announced so there were no surprises. (But the market still reacted negatively to the 10% drop in revenue and 33% drop in profit.)

The Communications segment now accounts for 60% of revenue, has seen its profit margin increase from 21% to 25%, with management targeting a 30% margin within the next 18 months. Revenues are expected to increase by 10-15% in FY24. There is already a forward order book of $163m, compared with the $274m achieved by this segment in FY23. It seems like most of these forward orders fall to the Zetron business. Most Zetron sales are in the US and Eagle has a dominant presence in the UK with complementary products, so Zetron has a significant cross sell opportunity into the Eagle customer base.

I find it frustrating that Codan does not break out the performance of the different businesses within its Communications segment. I get the sense that both DTC (military comms) and Zetec (emergency services command and control systems) are growing at similar rates. Zetec has recurring revenues due to support agreements (30%, expected to increase since 44% of Eagle revenue us recurring), but I don't know how much of the $273m Communications revenue falls to Zetec, therefore there is no visibility into the quantum of recurring revenue. There is also the Broadcast Wireless Systems business in the Communications segment, but all the annual report had to say about this was that "broadcast was successful securing orders for several large international sporting events".

I am still a patient holder of Codan in my RL portfolio. It clearly isn't a shoot the lights out company, but it is a solid long term performer from which I have seen 14-15% annual returns over many years, which is easily good enough to retain its place in my portfolio.

Just picked up the following from the FN Arena web site as I know there are a number of holders on Strawman.

CDA   CODAN LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $4.01

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CDA)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

Following commentary from Codan at its annual general suggesting a significant deterioration of Metal Detection sales into Africa, Canaccord Genuity sees more uncertainty around future sales in the region. 

Codan's first half net profit guidance of $25-30m suggests a -40-50% decline on the previous comparable period, and is a sizeable miss to Canaccord Genuity's expected $48m. The broker lowered its forecast -45% accordingly. 

The rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy and the target price decreases to $4.45 from $10.05.

This report was published on October 27, 2022.

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $4.01 Difference: $0.44

If CDA meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Good presentation from CEO Alf Ianello this week here - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtZ3UqO2mK0

Didn't love hearing him describe them as a "tech business" when he kicked off as it seemed like a short term pile on but plenty of sensible and practical detail confirmed afterwards.

I was very impressed with Alf. Really seemed to know his stuff, and had a clear vision of the company's strengths and where it was headed. A few notes:

• The 20% net margin is an internal target
• They are targeting growth to be 70% organic and 30% acquired
• Acquisitions will largely be focused on IP and in the comms segment
• Acquisitions will likely be cash and debt funded
• They have really good form on the acquisitions front
• Cash flows are down as they pre-ordered a lot to mitigate supply chain issues. Alf expects cash flows to return to more normal levels going forward
• They believe they have strong pricing power, and will be able to pass along any cost increases
• They are seeing some staff turnover at the mid-tier level due to a competitive market. But culture and conditions mean they have retained key people
• DTC acquisition has helped them move more into developed markets
• Retention in the comms division is extremely high. "once you've won a customer, you've got them for life"
• There's a very decent upgrade cycle for detectors, with enthusiasts and professionals very keen to have the best (and Minelab are by far the best)
• Geopolitical conflict is good for their comms business
• Share dilution has averaged less than 2% since the IPO in 2003 and the company has been consistently profitable, and paid a dividend every single year.

I'm sure i missed a bunch of stuff, but that's what i managed to jot down during the discussion.

A forward PE of 12x or so seems very undemanding for a business that has been a consistent and proven performer, and with decent growth prospects. Especially when you combine that with a 3.8% fully franked yield.

22-2-2022: [all the twos] Subsequent to Donald McGurk informing the Codan Board last year that he wished to retire sometime within the next 9 to 12 months (from that announcement in August 2021), Mr Alfonzo (Alf) Ianniello, most recently CEO of Adelaide-HQ'd privately-owned packaging company Detmold Group for 14 years, was appointed to the Codan Board on 06-Jan-2022 as their new MD and CEO.

Mr Alfonzo (Alf) Ianniello

Mr Ianniello led global manufacturing and sales businesses, the Detmold Group for 14 years. His career began as a defence systems engineer in 1995 with British Aerospace, where he stayed until 1999. In 1999, He travelled and worked in the USA to begin an eight-year tenure with automotive components manufacturer Schefenacker. He progressed from Customer Engineer and Branch Manager roles to become Engineering Director in 2001, Vice President of Global Engineering in 2004, and eventually Managing Director of the company's Australian division in 2005. As Managing Director, He oversaw Schefenacker's operations in South Australia and New South Wales, producing parts for Australian, American and Japanese vehicle manufacturers and sister companies in Europe and the USA. Mr Ianniello was on the Detmold Board for 14 years. During this time, he has also held Board positions with SME's, Tertiary Institutions and Local Government. He resigned from Detmold in December 2020, and completed his employment in July 2021. He attended the Wharton Business School Global CEO Program at the University of Pennsylvania in 2012.

Source: Commsec

The Codan website has a shorter version of the same information - see here: Leadership Team | CODAN

Further Reading:

Codan unearths yet another record result (Adelaide Advertiser)

Codan appoints new CEO - Defence Connect

Detmold Group - Our Story - Latest News

Reports are that Alf doesn't see anything that needs fixing at Codan, so he intends to continue to run the company as Donald did before him, and to continue to promote the strong supportive company culture that Donald was so passionate about.

I am a Codan shareholder, and have been for years.

The company is currently in the doghouse with the market, because of geopolitical issues in Sudan (was a strong market for Codan's Minelab Gold Detectors) and Afghanistan (previously a country where a decent chunk of Codan's Communications division equipment ended up), plus Donald McGurk retiring. He was a very popular CEO and MD. The company itself haven't set a foot wrong, and they've just reported yet another record half. The market hasn't yet twigged that both Sudan and Afghanistan are minor setbacks for a company such as Codan that sells metal detection and communications equipment all over the planet. And they've had plenty of setbacks before and handled them all beautifully. And the company is more than just the man at the top. They haven't twigged yet, but given enough reports, they will eventually.

03-Sep-19:  Codan Investor Presentation

Note:  Codan are about to be added to the S&P/ASX 300 Index as from the 23rd of this month (September 2019).

23-Apr-2020:  5:44pm:  Trading Update and Cash Position

18-Feb-2021:  Half Yearly Report and Accounts   plus   FY21 half-year investor presentation

RECORD FIRST-HALF RESULT

Highlights

• Highest half-year profit in the company’s history
• Net profit after tax of $41.3 million, a 36% increase
• Group sales of $194 million, a 14% increase against FY20 record first half
• Interim dividend of 10.5 cents, fully franked
• Earnings per share of 22.8 cents, up 36%

Australian-based technology company, Codan Limited (ASX:CDA), today announced statutory net profit after tax of $41.3 million for the half year ended 31 December 2020.

Directors announced an interim dividend of 10.5 cents per share, fully franked. This dividend has a record date of 25 February 2021 and will be paid on 11 March 2021.

The Board expects to continue its policy of paying shareholders in the order of 50% of our full year profits as dividends, and shareholders will continue to be rewarded for the strong performance of the company.

Chief Executive, Donald McGurk, said, “I am pleased to announce that our strategy to strengthen and invest in our core business through innovation and geographical expansion continues to deliver exceptional results.”

“The strong performance was driven primarily by our metal detection business, with significant growth across both gold and recreational markets.”

Cash generation was excellent, resulting in a net cash position of $111 million at 31 December 2020. Our strategy to invest in production capacity to meet demand has seen an increase in inventory during the period. Over the coming months, we expect inventory levels to further increase, which will serve three purposes:

1. Ensure we can meet the continued high level of demand for our metal detectors;
2. Minimise air freight expense, by maximising sea freight; and
3. Mitigate the risk of any production challenges posed by the pandemic

Outlook

Whilst it is too early to determine if our traditional second-half weighting of sales will occur this year, there are a number of factors that are relevant when considering the outlook for FY21:

• As recently announced, we expect to settle the DTC transaction by end of April 2021 and commence integrating this new technology business within Tactical Communications;
• Demand for our metal detection products remains strong, with January achieving $35 million in sales;
• The new GPX6000 gold detector has been very well received, with meaningful sales expected from Q4; and
• The Communications business enters the second half with a strong order book.

The Board is not in a position to provide full year profit guidance at this point; however, we will continue to keep shareholders updated as the year progresses.

--- click on the links above for much more ---

[I hold CDA shares.  Codan has been one of my best performing investments ever.  A great company!]

19-Aug-2021:  Codan (CDA), a company which I do hold in RL but has never been included in my SM portfolio have just released their FY2021 results:

FY21 FULL YEAR SUMMARY

• Highest full-year sales in the company’s history
• Record statutory net profit after tax of $90.2 million, an increase of 41%
• Return on equity of 36%
• Excellent cash generation, close to zero net debt after funding circa $174 million for acquisitions
• Sales revenue was $437m, up 26%
• Underlying EBITDA was $158.8m, up 35%
• Underlying NPAT was $97.3m, up 52%
• Underlying EPS was 54.0 cents, up 52%

I love it when a company has another good year, i.e. an even better year on the back of a really good year, and they not only increase their revenue once again, but they also increase their profits by substantially MORE than their revenue increased by, in percentage terms.  Better margins once again.  ROE of 36% is outstanding for a manufacturing business like this that designs and sells metal detectors and communication equipment.  Codan has been one of my top 3 best performing companies over the past 3 years, and they show no signs of slowing down yet.

Codan also have a very positive company culture which is driven by their CEO and MD, Donald McGurk.  They have a can do attitude and work collaboratively across their divisions and job roles, helping each other out without any of that "That's not my job" rubbish.  A great Adelaide success story, selling the world's best (Minelab) gold detectors to the world.  

Positive company culture is something that is often underappreciated by investment analysts, however one investment management company, WCM, who are based in Laguna Beach, California, and invest in global companies (and manage the ASX-listed WQG "WCM Global Growth" LIC, which I hold shares in) have built their business around analysing company cultures.  WCM invest in companies that have positive company cultures that support competitive advantages (moats) that are increasing or getting stronger over time.  For more info, see here:  https://strawman.com/reports/WQG/all

19-Aug-2021:  Codan (CDA) have announced this morning (along with their cracking results) that their MD & CEO, Donald McGurk, has advised the Board that it is his intention to retire from his role as Managing Director of Codan sometime within the next 9-12 months.  Donald will remain as Managing Director until such time as a successor is appointed to ensure a smooth transition.  I believe this is the main reason why Codan is being sold down today on this really good result.

At the risk of repeating Bear, these were the notes I took as I listened to the investor call today.

Codan reported their best ever year, and the headline numbers were very impressive:

• Revenue up 25.6% to $437 million
• EBITDA up 34.8% to $139.8 million
• Underlying NPAT up 52% to $97.3 million
• Fully franked full year dividends of 27 cents per share, up 46% year on year.

Metal detection sales up 38%, with growth evenly split across the 3 segments (hobby, prospector, mine detector). A very strong start to FY 22 has been flagged, with high demand and no supply chain constraints. 
Continual innovation of products has allowed Codan to maintain market leadership position in this business segment, which accounts for 75% of sales.

Communications business revenue is 22% of total, and sales have declined 8% largely due to government budgets being redirected to covid-related health initiatives. This business has been given a shot in the arm with 2 acquisitions of DTC and Zetron, for a combined cost of $174 million. This gives them a broad portfolio of market-leading communications products across voice, data and video targeted at the military, first responders, aid organisations and similar. These aquisitions are expected to add $22m to EBITDA in FY22, and were funded with cash generated by the business. Further acquisitions can be expected.

Codan have shown smart capital management with the divestment of the Minetec business to Caterpillar, who are much better placed to sell into the mine market, for $18m. In addition Codan will continue to supply the product to Caterpillar for 5 years, purely in the role of a contract manufacturer.

The only bad news in the report, and presumably the reason for the negative market reaction, is that CEO/MD Donald McGurk is resigning after 21 years with the company, 11 of those as CEO. Just to put this in context, Codan has a very strong ang long-tenured senior management team:

• Paul Sangster leads Tactical Communications business, and has been with Codan for 8 years;
• Peter Charlesworth who leads the metal detection business has been with Codan for 17 years;
• Michael Barton CFO has been with Codan for 17 years.

In the investor call, the main risks discussed for the coming year were:

• Transport disruption caused by Covid restricting ability to supply from Plexus contract manufacturing in Malysia 
• IC supply difficulties in second half of the year

Codan is the longest-held company in my portfolio, with annual returns of 31% over 8 years, so it is no surprise it has grown to 9% of my portfolio. This is overweight given I try to equal-weight across 20 companies, but I hold with such high conviction that I cannot bear to part with any of my shares.

As we know, FY21 was the best ever year for Codan, despite the disruption in the Communications business caused by diversion of government budgets and attention because of Covid. (Conversely Covid was estimated to be a $15-$20m tailwind for the metal detection business.)

My takeaways from the AGM:

"Q1 results are ahead of previous year"

"We are confident of delivering a record result for the first half of the year"

'Nuff said.

Every results season throws up some “oddity” that I find cant be easily explained. To me this season one such stock was Codan (CDA). I have been reasonably familiar with this story over several years, and met the outgoing CEO a few times, but am only a recent holder.

The treatment meted out to CDA has been severe given the result and I thought it worthwhile having a closer look.

My first comment is that this market is occupied by trend followers to a greater extent than anything I have seen in 30 years of investing, the upshot of that is that stocks will trend way above and way below what are reasonable valuations, imo. Could be the case here to some extent. Both ways.

The companies record over a reasonably long period has been quite good. It is a leader in detecting equipment and spends on R&D to maintain that position. The company has used the cashflow from that division to acquire more in the communication area. All sound stuff so far.

Although having a tech slant there is a weakness in the variability of the base biz. This is due to the reliance on some areas such as Sudan and Afghanistan for a reasonable amount of demand, quantified to some degree in the last result. Some with longer memories will recall the issues around 2013/4 that saw sales fall dramatically and it took some time to recover, although sales again are impacted the declines are much more manageable nowadays. Probably scares some.

However this variability means the stock is not a CSL etc. and shouldn’t and now doesn’t trade like CSL.

So there is variability in earnings that the market should have known of and priced accordingly, didn’t happen, the stock trended too high, that has been over corrected now imo. Is the company over earning? Maybe to some extent but not dramatically imo.

The other area of interest are the acquisitions in the communication segment. In the past CDA record in this segment has been patchy. However mgt went out of their way to say all was well, although early days. There are big hopes here. Any disappointment would be severely dealt with by the market.

The surprising issue with this result is that there were/are risks but they appear to be handled well so far but the market has shot first. IMO that is why I hold and would look to add if more stability is forthcoming. That’s enough of a rant for a typing beginner!

FNArena Weekly Insights from Rudy on ASX200 rebalance

Is it a concern that the CEO bought $180,000 worth of shares 2 weeks prior to release of a favourable trading update?

Last week (25/05/22) CEO, Alfonzo Laniello, bought 14,000 more Codan shares on market at $7.56 per share, totalling $105,840.

Another vote of confidence from the management!

Anyone know much about the contract with Microsoft/Domo product? I understand they share this 50:50 with another party who had stock shortages. CDA picked up some additional units. Wondering if these are repeatable or reverts back to 50:50 share

With little information available on who is selling or what is causing the share price decline, I think the only way to play Codan is to check the news on Sudan. Which unfortunately isn't good and doesn't bode well for Codan

This is one of the most recent articles regarding Sudan since the military coup.

https://sudantribune.com/article257560/

Sounds like the military wants to form a new government in preparations for elections.

Sounds positive until I noticed that the UN has been deliberately excluded from the process.

This is almost becoming like Zimbabwe 2.0 like what happened to Zimplats and Aquarius Platinum during the Mugabe Regime. But maybe not as bad as Codan is more diversified.

I've also asked around on the holy grail of broker data or an updated top 20 to pinpoint the selling but it seems unfortunately I am unable to get any data on this.

I don't know how much Sudan contributes to Minelab metal detector revenue but I think it is something like $40m from one of the conference call transcripts.

Value play or value trap? Hopefully we get some guidance soon.

Held

This UK acquisition makes commercial sense, it has close synergies with Zetron and will allow CDA to penetrate the EMEA marketplace. Of itself it’s not that exciting and perhaps pricey given their acquired $20m revenue stream is only 45% recurring.

I guess we’ve got to hope that 1 + 1 = 3 or more

Falling Gold price doesn't bode well for the Codan share price.

Add to this the increase in working capital by investing in additional inventory to meet future sales which is uncertain at this moment when consumers could be putting there money in more important things other than metal detectors.

Positive news in the non metal detector part of the the business (ie: communications) could perhaps arrest the slide.

I probably added too much at higher prices, tempted to add more here but everyone knows the golden rule of averaging down - unless there is something that you see which the market has missed.

[held]

I’m a newcomer to Codan, having bought my first shares in January this year. However, for those who have held Codan for more than 8 years, you might be feeling an uncanny sense of déjà vu right now. I found this article from June 2014 (copied below). As you read through this article you could be forgiven for thinking you were in an 8 year time warp. The question on my lips now is…will history continue to repeat itself over the years ahead?

Following an 80% fall from its peak share price in April 2014, it took 5 years for Codan to reach its former peak, and then 2 years on from that the share price was more than 5 times higher than it’s former peak. I’d be happy with that! :)

Value Stock - Spotlight on Codan (1 June 2014)

“Talk about being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Codan has been smashed as a falling gold price and civil unrest in parts of Africa cut demand for its metal detectors, and as the fading resources investment boom weighed on its mining technology division.

Codan shares more than tripled between mid-2011 and early 2013 as the market latched on to its fast earnings growth and stellar prospects in emerging markets. But after peaking at $3.95 in March last year, the company has slumped to 68 cents in a brutal fall from grace. 

Value investors could give up on Codan. Its earnings can be volatile, sales are heavily skewed towards Africa and other frontier economies, and much depends on the hard-to-predict gold price and rate of gold discoveries. Also, it is hard to define Codan’s sustainable competitive advantage.

Clearly, Codan is not for the risk-averse or those with a short investment horizon. No business that earns half its sales from the African mining industry, and operates in political hotspots such as the Sudan, can provide the consistent, recurring revenue that characterises exceptional companies. 

Even so, the market habitually gets too bullish on small-cap companies at the top, and too bearish at the bottom. That could be the case with Codan today, making it a stock for portfolio watchlists of speculators, as its share price forms a base.

To recap, Codan has three core divisions. MineLab is the most important, accounting for 54 per cent of sales in the first half of FY14. It sells metal detectors to small-scale artisanal miners who search for gold as their primary source of income, and to gold hobbyists and prospectors. Governments and non-government organisations also use its detectors to find land mines and other unexploded shells.

The radio communications business contributed 39 per cent of sales for the half. Government and military customers use Codan’s high-frequency radios for long-range communications, and companies and consumers buy land mobile radios for short to medium-range communications.

The Minetec division, which contributed 4 per cent of revenue, provides a range of safety products, asset tracking and communication infrastructure to underground mines. Codan divested its underperforming satellite business in 2012 to focus on these three divisions.

Its strategy, for the most part, had paid off. Codan’s return on equity (ROE) soared from 20 per cent in FY09 to 41 per cent in FY13, thanks to stunning growth in net profit. Net debt had steadily decreased and there was plenty of cash on the balance sheet. 

In some ways, Codan was among the more impressive Australian small-cap companies. It had become genuinely global and built a strong on-the-ground presence in difficult frontier markets. Its sales in the developing world have exceeded $100 million in each of the past five years. 

Codan still looks well placed to benefit from long-term growth in emerging markets, and as the resource sector eventually recovers. Up to 13 million people worldwide are thought to participate in small-scale gold mining, and many still use traditional methods rather than high-tech metal detectors.

Frontier countries, by their nature, are unpredictable in the short term. Codan’s net profit after tax slumped to $4.8 million for the December 2013 half, from $26.5 million a year earlier. Falling demand for its metal detectors in the latter stages of FY13 spilled over into the first half of FY14.

Civil unrest in the Sudan, extreme weather conditions, counterfeiting of metal detectors, and general political instability in West Africa led to a 64 per cent fall in revenue in the metal-detection division to $32.9 million. Gold-detector sales fell an astonishing 80 per cent on a year earlier. 

Lower profit margins compounded the sales woes. A strong second-hand market in metal detectors has emerged in Codan’s key African markets, reducing its ability to sell higher-margin new detectors. And it was caught holding far too much inventory, after not having had enough during its boom years.

Codan’s other divisions also slowed. Revenue in the radio communications business was to $23.6 million in the December half, from $32.3 million a year earlier. Sales of land mobile radio products, predominantly in the United States, were hurt by cuts in US Government spending.

Sales in the MineTec division slumped from $9.4 million to $2.4 million, year on year, as Codan transitioned from supplying traditional mining services to commercialising its own technology. On any measure, Codan’s earnings woes – flagged to the market in December – disappointed.

However investors cut it, the result was a bloodbath.

Codan has responded with $10 million in annual cost cuts, and other volume-related expense reductions. The big question is how much lasting damage has been done, and how quickly it can get its ROE – 7.8 per cent in the first half of FY14 – back to previous levels.

The company’s balance sheet has been weakened: total debt rose from $33.8 million in FY13 to $71 million in the latest half. Excluding cash and short-term investments, the net debt-to-equity ratio is 54 per cent – manageable, although heading towards higher risk.

Codan had $6.4 million in cash at December 31, 2013, from $8.6 million at the end of FY13. Although the $64 million in net borrowings are within its bank facility of $85 million, Codan arguably does not have much scope to withstand continued earnings shocks without additional debt or equity capital raisings. Gearing at 35 per cent in the first half of FY14 is moderate risk.

It is not all bad news. Codan has several new metal detectors due for release in FY14 and FY15, and says its radio communications division entered the second half of FY14 with its strongest order book in several years. 

The MineTec business won an important tender to install its mine simulation software, which will provide proof of concept and a platform for further sales. Codan says MineTec is now successfully commercialising its technology in a highly competitive global industry.

Even so, Codan provided muted guidance in the outlook statement in its latest profit report: “Although sales have been softer during the past nine months, our baseline metal-detection business remains strong, and we remain confident of future growth as we continue to develop new market-leading products and extend our global reach, all supplemented by the upside of future gold rushes.”

Prospective investors might have hoped for more specific guidance on how Codan intends to arrest its earnings decline. In fairness, current volatility in the company’s core markets must make it hard to give more precise guidance.

Prospective investors need a high margin of safety to buy Codan, such is the risk of forecasting error (with only three forecasts in the consensus) and the potential for continued earnings volatility. None of its recent problems, notably civil unrest in parts of Africa, look like reversing anytime soon.

Lower expenditure by mining companies and government cutbacks, which affect the radio division, will linger for some time. The surprise could be continued gains in the gold price, which encourages more prospecting and leads to more gold discoveries, which in turn spurs metal-detector demand. But pinning ones hopes to the gold price is risky.

A better strategy is to watch and wait. It is hard to find a re-rating catalyst for Codan between now and the full-year result in August, and the first downgrade is rarely the last for micro-cap companies. A weaker gold price is a threat for its gold-detector sales.

More evidence is needed that Codan is arresting its sales decline, boosting ROE, and restoring market credibility. It said the ‘challenges presented by some of its markets makes it too difficult provide guidance at this time”. 

Chartist will keep a close watch on the price action as Codan consolidates between 60-70 cents a share, 

–   Tony Featherstone is a former managing editor of BRW and Shares magazines. This column does not imply stock recommendations. Readers should do further research of their own or talk to their adviser before acting on themes in this article. All prices and analysis at May 28, 2014.”

…and how did the share price fair over the following 8 years?

Officially bagholding after this update

Looks like the update on Sudan not very good and the diversification progress is slower.

Sudan is turning to be the next Zimbabwe mugabe era.

Should have listened to myself and just sold like what i did with aquarius platinum

Held]

Shock 1H23 guidance

AGM Chairman and CEO Addresses, 2022

Codan’s 1H23 shock profit guidance of between $25 - $30 million announced at the AGM not only surprised me, it shocked most of Codan’s investors. It is now feasible that Codan’s FY23 profit result could end up similar to my worst case scenario of $57 million (37 cps).

This could put profits down about 40% on Codan’s record $100 million profit result last year. Codan puts lower profit guidance this half down to the uncertainty relating to the timing of shipments on a large communications project as well as the ‘lack of visibility’ in a number of African markets.

Codan said it recently learned from their people on the ground that there are a number of factors impacting Minelab sales into Africa. The Codan CEO, Alf Lanniello, said “Beyond COVID, geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges remain across Africa, and it is only now clear that there is an overhang of product in the market following the very significant volumes of detectors purchased in FY21 and FY22.”

Codan CEO Alf Lanniello said “Sudan has been materially impacted by the military coup. The previous democratically-elected government actively encouraged artisanal gold mining as a means of driving employment and building wealth within regional communities. Now, under military rule, some gold mining regions are being controlled by military forces and remain off limits to artisanal miners.”

In fact it is worse than this as I uncover further down!

Alf said “This was a key reason for the reduction of our sales in FY22 and this market has further declined in FY23 along with broader weakness seen throughout Africa”.

Alf said “Our planning and budgeting for this year anticipated a gradual improvement in sales into Africa in the first 6 months of this financial year. Following a recent in-depth market by market analysis after our people travelled to all regions, we have now formed the view that sales will remain depressed for FY23.”

Are Codan’s days of consistent growth over, or will this business shine once again?

Codan Blindsided

It concerns me that Codan appears to have been blindsided by what has been happening in Sudan, Codan’s single largest African market. Codan had not picked up on the significance of what was happening in Sudan until just recently when their team was able to “get back into the field after COVID”. At least that is what Codan was telling unhappy investors at the AGM who questioned why profit guidance had not been announced earlier. Until the AGM, Codan had left several analysts forecasting profits similar to last year. So what has gone so wrong so quickly…or perhaps why has it taken so long for Codan to find out what is REALLY happening in Africa?

What’s happened to the African Minelab Profits?

The African gold detecting market has been the largest market for Minelab historically, with sales peaking at $185 million in FY21, before declining to $125 million, or 26% of Codan’s total revenue in FY22. However, due to Minelab’s higher profit margins, this represented about 35% of Codan’s total profits, or $35 million for FY22 (on my calculations).

Now doing some rough maths based on my assumption Codan’s FY23 profit will be c. $57 million, this would mean Codan will be down about $43 million compared to FY22. If we were to write off all the profits Codan made from metal detector sales in Africa last year completely, (c. $35 million), this would put Codan’s FY23 profit at $65 million. Something is not adding up here!

Codan says ROW sales are growing and margins in the Comms business is improving, so how can Codan’s profit fall by more than the profit Codan makes out of Minelab in Africa?

Is it possible that Codan has over-invested in Minelab inventory over the past 12 months in anticipation of increasing sales in Africa and it is now left with warehouses full of metal detectors? This would certainly explain why Codan’s profits and cash flows might be lower this year.

Significance of Artisanal Mining in Africa to Codan

“An artisanal miner or small-scale miner (ASM) is a subsistence miner who is not officially employed by a mining company but works independently, mining minerals using their own resources, usually by hand” (Wikipedia).

“There are four broad types of ASM: permanent artisanal mining, seasonal (annually migrating during idle agriculture periods), rush-type (massive migration, pulled often by commodity price jumps), and shock-push (poverty-drive, following conflict or natural disasters).”

Sudan is Codan’s single largest market in Africa and “artisanal gold mining is widespread across much of Sudan, employing more than two million people and producing about 80 percent of the gold extracted nationwide.” https://phys.org/news/2022-07-sudan-gold-wreaks-havoc-health.am

In 2021 Codan experienced a “COVID Gold Rush” as Africans out of work due to COVID rushed to the gold fields. The growth in Minelab sales during 2021 turned out to be unsustainable.

Russian Interference and Gold Plundering is Affecting Artisanal Mining

“One of the world’s least-developed countries, Sudan is a hotbed of illicit financial activity — Transparency International ranks it among the world’s 20 most corrupt countries. It is estimated that only a fifth of the country’s gold output passed through official channels, with the rest smuggled out of the country. In 2019 more than $4 billion of gold was unaccounted for.

In the new interim government, Hemeti is the second most powerful general after Abdel Fattah al Burhan, the country’s top military leader, who launched a coup to oust the civilian leader Abdalla Hamdok. After the recent coup (October 2021), it has been even easier “to smuggle gold to Dubai.”

https://www.mining.com/web/how-a-sanctioned-russian-company-gained-access-to-sudans-gold/

There are also allegations that Russians are smuggling gold bars from Sudan. 

https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/a-collapsed-gold-mine-in-sudan-raises-questions-about-its-money-trail-53123/amp

CNN YouTube Video

“Backed by the Kremlin, the shadowy network known as the Wagner Group is getting rich in Sudan while helping the military to crush a democracy movement.

Wagner’s operations in Sudan began in 2017 after a meeting in the Russian coastal resort of Sochi.

After nearly three decades of autocratic rule, President Omar Hassan al-Bashir of Sudan was losing his grip on power. At a meeting with Mr. Putin in Sochi, he sought a new alliance, proposing Sudan as Russia’s “key to Africa” in return for help, according to the Kremlin’s transcript of their remarks.

Over the next 18 months, Meroe Gold imported 131 shipments into Sudan, Russian customs records show — mining and construction equipment, but also military trucks, amphibious vehicles and two transport helicopters. One of the helicopters was photographed a year later in Central African Republic, where Wagner fighters were protecting the country’s president, and where Mr. Prigozhin had acquired lucrative diamond mining concessions.

Gold production in Sudan soared after 2011, when South Sudan seceded and took with it most of its oil wealth, but only a handful of Sudanese have gotten rich. General Hamdan’s family dominates the gold trade, experts and Sudanese officials say, and about 70 percent of Sudan’s production is smuggled out, according to Central Bank of Sudan estimates obtained by The Times.

Most of it passes through the United Arab Emirates, the main hub for undeclared African gold. Western officials say that Russian-produced gold has likely been smuggled out this way, allowing producers to avoid government taxes and possibly even the share of the proceeds that is owed to the Sudanese government.

Several protests against Meroe Gold operations have erupted in mining areas. A Sudanese YouTube personality known only as “the fox” has attracted large audiences with videos that purport to lift the lid on Wagner’s activities. And pro-democracy demonstrators theorize that Moscow was behind last October’s military takeover of the Sudanese government.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/05/world/africa/wagner-russia-sudan-gold-putin.html

Wagner Group accused of attacks on artisanal mines

Wagner Group CAN massacre YouTube

“Russian mercenaries working for the Wagner Group, a private military company that has been linked to the Kremlin by western officials, have mounted a series of bloody attacks on artisanal mines in the lawless border zones between Sudan and Central African Republic (CAR) in an effort to plunder the region’s valuable gold trade, witnesses and experts have said.

Wagner has been active in a dozen countries across Africa, and has been repeatedly accused of human rights abuses on the continent. Western officials allege the Kremlin is using Wagner to advance Russian economic and political interests across Africa and elsewhere...”

https://www.business-humanrights.org/en/latest-news/car-wagner-group-accused-of-launching-several-attacks-on-artisanal-mines-to-plunder-gold/

“Unstable regimes in Africa have sought assistance from Wagner to prop up their governments, including in Libya, Mali and Sudan, according to the US.”

Artisanal Gold Miner Describes Attacks

“Artisanal gold miner Alnazir Mohamed said he was digging for gold when an attack helicopter swooped to the ground flanked by tanks. Soldiers who appeared to be foreign streamed into the mining site and opened fire.”

“They killed randomly and looted, taking everything including property, money and gold,” Mohamed, 30, said in an interview last month in Nyala, Sudan.

The mercenaries, working with the domestic army, killed at least 100 artisanal miners between March and June, according to a tally kept by local rebel leaders. 

“Their forces scout gold-mining areas using drones,” said Enrica Picco, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group who was previously a member of the UN panel of experts on the CAR and has been doing field research since Russian fighters arrived in the country. “Then they use helicopters to deploy soldiers who indiscriminately kill miners and rebels in control of the site, loot property and steal gold.” https://www.mining.com/web/russian-mercenaries-seek-gold-sow-chaos-in-car/

“There are regular reports of attackers arriving by helicopter, killing artisanal goldminers and rebels, taking everything they can and then leaving,” she told British newspaper The Guardian. “Sometimes they come back again a month or so later and do the same thing. It is nothing to do with securing a mining site.”

The Wagner Group’s presence in gold-mining areas has increased since governments around the world unleashed massive sanctions against Russia for its war in Ukraine.

https://adf-magazine.com/2022/07/wagner-group-terrorizing-sudanese-gold-miners/

What’s the Future For Codan in Africa?

Alf Lanniello said “While our sales into Africa are currently lower, I want to assure shareholders that management are working hard to rebuild and maximise our sales of gold detectors into this market.”

In reality, given the geopolitical circumstance, the instability of governments and the level of corruption, particularly in Sudan, Codan’s people will have little influence over artisanal gold mining activity.

Alf admitted Codan has “a lack of visibility into a number of the African markets”. I think Codan needs to invest more resources into on-ground intelligence in Africa to better understand what is driving and influencing artisanal gold mining activities across Africa. The level of artisanal gold mining activity directly impacts Minelab sales and profitability.

Rest of World (ROW)

Codan said “Rest of World (RoW) sales for the Minelab and Communications businesses, into markets such as North America, Europe, Lantin America and Asia Pacific represented over 70% of FY22 revenues.”

Metal detection (ROW)

“Encouragingly, Minelab’s rest of world sales – excluding Africa – has been a fantastic growth story, with sales growing at 14% CAGR from FY18 to FY22, despite the cessation of Russian sales. The breadth of products being sold (including gold, coin and treasure and land mine detectors) as well as growth in key geographic markets in North America, Central and Latin America, Australia, Europe and Asia means these sales are generally more predictable and stable compared to our African market.”

“Minelab has a strong track record of successfully entering new geographic markets and we are confident that our ongoing engineering capability and innovation will support the continued release of leading-edge products. Having not released a high-end coin and treasure detector for over 10 years, it is with much excitement that during FY23 Minelab will launch several new coin and treasure detectors.”

“Despite these headwinds our Rest of World metal detection business continues to perform well, maintaining gains made in FY22 and we expect the first half of FY23 to be in line with the prior year after normalising for the ceased Russian market.”

Communications

Codan said “there will be a particular focus on increasing the profitability of our Communications business.”

“The acquisitions of DTC and Zetron have diversified Codan’s sales with the Communications division increasing from 23% to 48% of group sales in FY22.”

“However, as the Communications business continues to grow their sales, we would expect segment profit margins achieved in FY22 of 21% to increase, as the business will benefit from operating leverage. Our longer-term objective is for the Communications segment profit margin to reach 30%. This may take some time; however, we are confident in both the near and long-term growth prospects of our Communications division.”

“We believe our Communications businesses represent a significant future growth engine for Codan and expect our results for the first half of FY23 to have sales in the range of $123 to 135 million, which represents a 5 to 15% increase on the prior corresponding period. With respect to the large communications project announced at this time last year, there is currently some uncertainty relating to the timing of shipments. Orders remain in place and we are confident that all product will ship over time.”

“With the growth in sales, we are expecting to lift the segment profit margin for our Communications business from 21% in FY22 to 25% over FY23, as the business will benefit from operating leverage.”

First half FY23 outlook:

• A number of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors have significantly impacted Minelab African sales;

• Minelab’s Rest of the World sales are proving resilient and in line with a normalised FY22; lastly

• Communications will deliver strong growth in both sales and segment profit.

Divisional profit forecasts to December 2022 were considered in detail by the Board late yesterday. We are expecting a first half net profit after tax in the range of $25 to $30 million, given the uncertainty relating to the timing of shipments on our large communications project as well as the lack of visibility in a number of African markets, we believe this is an appropriate range.

The results for the second half of FY22 are expected to be stronger than the first half.

Cash generation in the first half of FY23 has been impacted as our sales into Africa have reduced. Sales into Africa are generally made on a cash before delivery basis. We also have a major $5 million capital expenditure program underway to relocate our Zetron businesses which will minimise future rental costs. We expect to close the first half of FY23 with net debt in the order of $70 million. Over the second half of FY23 we expect to return to the positive cash generation that Codan is known for and therefore drive down our net debt position.

Sum up and valuation

Apart from the African Minelab operations, the rest of Codan’s business is performing well and growing. However, Africa made up about 35% of Codan’s profits during FY22 (on my calculations. I need to confirm this with Codan).

The geopolitical issues in Africa are dire, with alleged Russian interference disrupting governments and artisanal gold mining in a number of already destabilised parts of Africa.

Russia is allegedly plundering gold to fund its war efforts with Ukraine, and with increased global sanctions, this is making the situation even worse for artisanal gold miners across Africa’s gold rich nations. It could take years for the situation to improve.

If we were to write off Codan’s African segment for the medium term, is there enough value left in the rest of Codan’s business to support the share price today and over the next few years. Africa still has plenty of gold and the majority of it will be mined by artisanal gold miners, but it might take years for this to return to the glory days.

Last year (FY22) Codan’s earnings were $100 million. If we were to write off all the African profits, say $35 million, that leaves us with a profit of $65 million. This could be lower this year (say $57 million) due to Codan over spending on inventory for a market that has all but evaporated. This is the pain you get when you “lack visibility” into one of your most important markets.

As a shareholder, and for the sake of knowing what to do with Codan, I’m going to attempt to value the business based on a number of assumptions.

I will assume the African business will cost Codan cash flow and profits this year and consolidated earnings will be c $57 million. FY24 Codan’s earnings will be closer to $65 million assuming there is zero profit from Africa (that’s pretty harsh I know).

I will assume the rest of the business will comtinue to grow from FY23 with a return on shareholder equity of 18% (down from 30% FY22) with 50% of the earnings reinvested into growth. That puts earnings from FY24 growing at 9% per year.

Using McNivan’s formula and a required return of 10% per year, I get a valuation of $5.90 ( without the African gold detector business)

Codan is currently trading around $4.00 and it seems to me the market has already written off the African gold detector business, plus some more.

It looks like the market has overreacted. However, due to the ‘lack of visibility’ shareholders have into the contribution of profits from Codan’s various business segments, it is difficult to make a well informed valuation. For me it’s a hold.

Will Codan shine again? Who knows?

I think too much focus has been put onto the Sudan situation. It is a negative short term and no one wants to give up $40-50M of sales but I don't think it really matters that much to the broader multi-year investment thesis. Minelab now accounts for only 54% (vs 80 previously) of the total buisness, due to the expansion of the communications segment, with the Zeftron and DTC aquisitions. From the contract announcements and the commentary around these businesses it suggests that they are being assimilated very well and I like how they have added depth to CDC and enabled it to transistion away from a products business to an end to end communications solutions business. Commentary around this business segment seems very positive and I am expecting an underpromise over deliver scenario regarding the lack of specific full year guidance, even though they are tracking ahead of the initial forecasts.

No sales from Sudan occurred in H1FY22, but Minelab sales were $138M, with the recreation and countermine segments sales maintaining their record FY21 levels. Countermine doubled from PCP. Sales are definately trending in the right direction overtime and even if we take 50M of sales off the FY21 result and assume no growth in the other metal detector markets during H2 then sales should be around $267M for Minelab in FY22. H1 sales were $138M without Sudan. They did comment in the call (you can relisten from their website) that the 1st 6 weeks of this year were equivalent to H1 rates. They also managed to achieve a record $50.1M profit in H1 without Sudan.

One comment from the investor call that was interesting was that there new gold detector GPX6000 was specifically designed for the african market but they did say they were happy with the launch and seeing good sales of this unit at around 5-600/wk vs an exptation of around 1000 if Sudan was open.

Other markets are also being developed with Brazil and Mexico are growing well and India being expanded into, so I think over time the Sudan loss will be made up in time by these other markets and when/if Sudan settles down then the sales will flow again through that channel.

I have been buying slowly in small packets in real life since it dropped below $10 and I keep looking for a reason why I am wrong about this buisness and what will stop it from continuing to pump out solid results into the future. I can't find any company specific reason why it isn't a buy for me.

They plan to maintain a 50% dividend payout rate and their ROE has ranged between 20-30 over the last 5 years. It is currently on a PE of 12.7, I think 15-20 is more appropiate for this business over the longer term and that give us a price target of $8.25-11, this assumes no profit growth on FY21.

There will be a huge sigh of relief from Codan investors this morning. In a letter to shareholders the Chairman says Codan’s 2H profits are expected to match the 1H record result of $50 million and consequently FY22 should be a record profit result for Codan.

Institutional investors presentation and market update

We are pleased to lodge the presentation pack for our Institutional Investors on campus tour of Codan’s facilities in Adelaide today.

Although we will not be commenting in detail on our financial results during the presentation, we believe it is important to provide a brief update to all shareholders at this time, given the many uncertainties across global markets.

While the timing of project sales or unforeseen challenges in supply chains could still impact revenues and profitability as we approach the end of the financial year, the Board is expecting the record FY22 first half profit of $50 million to be matched in the second half of FY22. This will result in a record FY22 full year profit.

Codan’s strategy to diversify revenues and profitability continues to deliver results, with the increased profitability of the Communications division continuing in the second half of FY22. The DTC and Zetron businesses have been excellent acquisitions, with integration of both businesses and their expanding opportunity pipelines tracking ahead of schedule. Both businesses are expected to deliver a strong second half result consistent with the first half performance.

In terms of revenues and profit, FY22 will be Minelab’s second best year ever, and we expect it to form a new base from which the business will grow in future years. The growth will come from continued penetration of new geographic markets and new product releases that will drive further market share increases. Minelab’s excellent profit margins have continued in the second half, so while sales into Russia have ceased and consumer demand has normalised post-Covid in our recreational markets, the profit contribution from Minelab is expected to be comparable to the first half.

Our decision to invest in inventory rather than let customers down has proven to be the correct one. Notwithstanding this investment in inventory, $41 million of cash has been generated from operating activities so far in the second half of FY22, this is a significant improvement over the first half, which had an operating cash outflow of $13 million.

Disc: held IRL and SM

Just saw that CDA director K Gramp bought $50k worth of stock at $3.88. she has experience as cfo of austereo and was on UWL board so looks like a numbers type person. doubles her holding. interesting

Director Graeme Barclay has almost doubled family holdings, adding 60,000 shares on 1st November through on-market purchases averaging $3.84, and totalling $230,400.

On the 27th June this year Graeme Barclay purchased 15,000 shares at $7.17, totalling $107,550. The Barclay family now hold 123,573 shares with a current market value of $490,000 at $3.96 per share.

Having read @Karmast post on his thoughts in Codan, I thought I would ask the Chairman on his thoughts. He also is a big believer in the growth story and bought stock 3 months ago. Also thinks the Africa business will come back at some time in the future.

As per all insiders didn't comment on the $9.70 valuation LOL.

Not to my mind @DrPete123. Others might think differently but it's not as if they upgraded guidance (they hadn't given guidance previously). What they had said in their half year reporting was that FY22 was shaping up to be a "strong year". Their announcement this week is good but I don't think it's that special. They're guiding this half to the same NPAT as 1H FY22 (and 2H FY21), good but not great. To my way of thinking, in this case if there is a variance in expectations it's on the analysts and not the company.

The other thing is you constantly hear is how narrow the buying window is for insiders. Also, Alf is new to the company and we constantly talk about how we want insiders to have incentives aligned to shareholders. He bought on 10 May (WD8) so maybe he had April results by then, but I wouldn't assume that's the case. I dunno - there's enough else in the world to be angry about that I'm going to give him a leave pass on this one.

[Held]

In an article published last week ‘Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy next week’, James Mickleboro from The Motley Fool shared a note out of Macquarie.

“Macquarie analysts have retained their outperform rating and $11.60 price target on Codan. This follows the release of a trading update which revealed that it expects to report a record profit of $100 million in FY 2022. This was in line with the broker’s forecasts. Outside this, Macquarie feels that solid results from recently acquired businesses could boost confidence in future M&A optionality.”

My view

Generally I don’t take much notice of broker targets, but I am interested in their opinions.

I always worry about acquisitions especially when the only insight you get sometimes is, “the acquisition will be immediately earnings accretive”. Isn’t that what they all say?

Increasing earnings from a new business means very little unless it is put in context with the ROE for the new business. Adding a business with lower ROE can dilute the overall performance of the combined business.

In Codan’s case there is already evidence their acquisitions have at least maintained the ROE in the combined business. Using Codan’s FY22 earnings guidance of $100 million, and shareholder’s equity of $304 million, ROE of 33% is a slight improvement on last year’s 32.4%. What is more important is the trend! While ROE continues to improve at already high levels, I’m sticking around for the future growth Codan has in the pipeline.

Source: Commsec, 30/05/2022

My previous valuation on 29 March was $10.00. This was based on McNiven’s StockVal formula and is lower than most other valuations I have seen. This is because it is not a target value for Codan. This is the price you can pay for Codan now and expect a 10% return going forward (and this does not include franking credits on the 3.8% dividend). I used an ROE of 30% in my valuation. Given the FY22 guidance and ROE of 33% this looks reasonably conservative.

Disc: Held IRL and SM.

I could be wrong, but I don’t think business profits care about the ASX 200 Index! This didn’t stop Codan falling 4.4% today creating yet another buying opportunity.

I put the price drop down to two things, the Reserve Bank surprising the market with an interest rate hike of 0.5%, and Codan falling out of the ASX 200 forcing funds to sell down. Higher interest rates are definitely a headwind for profitability, but falling out of the ASX 200 index is not!

Codan has confirmed that we can expect a record FY22 profit of $100 million. Over the past 5 years, earnings have increased by an average 22% per year, ROE has increased from 27% to 32%. Codan has a net profit margin of 20% providing a reasonable buffer against some rising costs.

Codan also has low debt (14.5% debt/equity ratio) and it’s debt is well covered by operating cash flow (117%). Interest payments are well covered by EBIT (92.4x).

Codan is the type of business I am happy to buy and hold in this macro environment: it’s a strong performer (30% ROE), earnings are growing and have been reasonably reliable, it reinvests 50% of its earnings to grow the business, 50% of its earnings are paid as dividends, and it currently trades on a PE of 13 (based on FY22 earnings). A quality business on a low PE!

This year earnings will be about 55 cps, and investors can expect about 28 cps to be paid out in dividends (4% fully franked, or 5.7% including the tax credits). We can expect a dividend of about 16 cps fully franked this September.

Buying Codan at $7.11 per share, I am expecting an annual return of 12% excluding franking credits (dividends plus capital growth, based on McNiven’s StockVal Formula).

Going on the current macro uncertainty and market volatility, Codan could be cheaper still tomorrow!

Disc: Accumulating IRL today.