He's a little market anecdote.

Today, I was in my local pharmacy - part of theChempro chain. I've been in and out of it several time in the last 6 months, and noticed the Activated Probiotics range, and that the range is stocked right next to the payment terminal has been growing to now encompass the full range. However, the metres of shelf space is still about 8-10% of that given to the more extensive Bioceuticals range.

I got to speak to the head pharmacist in the shop, as it was a quiet time, and I asked him if he could recommend something for a minor condition I have, and for which I usually take a prescription medication.

Quick as a flash, he was on to the relevant Activated Probiotic range. He rolled out all the key messages (per CEO Blair) and spoke about how I'd probably need to take the recommendation for 2-3 months to see the benefit. He spoke about the clinical evidence, and pointed out that the condition-specific label made it unique among probiotics.

He also mentioned that he had personally tried the general Biome Advanced Probiotic and had observed benefits (digestion, gut health in the pharmacist's case.)

As I got deeper into the specifics of my condition, he finally recommended another treatment, with a good rationale as to why that was preferred over the probiotic.

My Key Takeaways From this Isolated Datapoint

• The market training investment is clearly putting the $BIO brand in the front of mind of the pharmacist
• The range is prominently displayed right next to the payment terminal and, although, only having a very small fraction of space of the established brand, was closer in reach to someone standing at the payment terminal
• Pharmacists in Australia are well trained professionals, and given a deeper discussion, this pharmacist ultimately made another recommendation, having weighed the $BIO product with alternatives.(The alternative was NOT a probiotic)

While no payday for $BIO here, it is one datapoint that backs up what BVN has been telling investors. So, I took heart.

Disc: Held in RL and SM

In this straw I set out an interesting journey I have been on this week, following an exchange with @Tezzdog  last weekend, that put $BIO on my radar screen. I posted an initial - and somewhat bearish - response to @Tezzdog's question.

@Strawman promptly came to the party and, by midday Monday, had lined up a SM Meeting with MD and Founder Blair Vega Norfolk (BVN) for Monday coming. (Well done, sir! Where else can you get that kind of access to a CEO – I ask you.)

For those who are interested, this straw contains some further resources that can help prepare for Monday. (If you are anything like me, I like to go into Strawman meetings with a lot of research under my belt, as I find I "hear" so much more. I agree with @Wini from the recent SM Meeting that its important to have an informed point of view, before you listen to management.)

Alternatively, you can skip all this and I’ll see you on Monday, leaving you with the thought that, yesterday, I picked up a tiny starter stake in $BIO - even though there's every chance I have royally overpaid. However, if it meets my expectations, I have a lot in the tank I'd be prepared to allocate over the next year or two. So, I'm not too fussed.

Summarising my Bearish Views

My governing thoughts (based on an hour's research on Sunday) was that I considered 1) the global competitive landscape and 2) the strength of board and management as significant barriers to achieving the global success to which $BIO aspires. I also highlighted why, at 11x revenue - whatever the outlook - it ain't cheap. That was then.

Meetings with BVN which Helped Me Form a More Bullish View

The following two videos are worth viewing:

1. 4D Half Yearly Results Video - February
2. Interview from Shares In Value with BVN

There's quite a bit of overlap between the two videos, with more insights in the second. So, I got my assistant Claude.AI to summarise the transcripts under key headings. I've reviewed it, it seems pretty accurate, and I’ve dumped it at the end of this Straw for those who are interested, but haven't got 30 minutes to watch the video. (Scroll down to the dotted line, if you want to skip straight to that bit.)

My Take-Aways - what I've learned over the last 5 days

I structured my takeaways from this material and other research under some key headings, including what I learned in doing the next level of research, and how it challenged some of my initial bearish views. I was not starting from scratch, as I did some work on the probiotics market several years ago when I was looking at Blackmores, but never progressed further. It is a market that has long been of interest to me, partly because it combines healthcare and retail – two areas in which I am very happy investing and have enjoyed some success over the years.

1. Research-supported Condition-specific Activated Probiotics

In my bearish response at the weekend, I focused on just how large and well-established the global probiotics market is, and how established the international competition $BIO will faceas it ventures beyond Australia.

BVN made a remark in both videos (which no doubt we'll hear on Monday) that $BIO are first movers in "clinically supported, condition-specific, probiotics". Having cursorily examined some of the global competitors, I am not sure I agree with this statement, and I believe I can show that it is incorrect. However, it is true that the vast majority of the current global probiotics market has quite general label claims (e.g., “promoting gut health”), without specific clinical trials support or defined, specific indications.

Another advantage is that the formulation/encapsulation technology $BIO uses allows more of the live probiotics to survive passing through the stomach to reach the gut (small and large intestines). Again, while I am sure this isn't unique, it is a differentiator from the vast majority of probiotic pills, powders, yoghurts, and drinks out there, which churn around in the stomach acid for 30 minutes or so. (I happen to have 5 years’ experience working in pharmaceutical formulation technology and manufacturing, so am not an entirely novice in this area. In fact, part of my post-doctoral research involved a collaboration looking at sustained-release formulations, albeit I was not a principal investigator for this work!)

The standard behind $BIOs claims is that each formulation is supported by double-blind, randomised, controlled, clinical trials measured against specific end points. Again, I want to emphasise that I don't believe they are unique in this respect. However, it does differentiate them from most of the current market. Learning this, made me sit up and take more notice.

2. A Differentiated Go To Market (GTM) Approach

This is where BVN's marketing background shines through - and I think it really does differentiate them. Listening to him speak convinces me that this guy really does have deep marketing expertise.

Most probiotics are essentially a fast-moving consumer good (FMCG). Develop the brand, do the distribution deals, and get as much shelf acreage for each SKU. Support sales through brand-building, advertising and marketing spend. This is what Blackmores does with Bioceuticals. If necessary, discount the hell out of it to land the mega distribution deals, e.g., Chemist Warehouse.

$BIO is different. They sell "behind the counter". They aim to provide products to the community pharmacist, the nutritionist, the dentist, etc. where they can add value to their customers. They are giving these customers something you can't get at the "pile 'em high and sell 'em cheap" outlets.

This means the professional is incentivised to recommend $BIO's product. Because they generate more margin per sq metre of shop space than the competing mass market offerings, where margins are thin. While $BIO does distribution deals, they won't compromise on price. BVN quantifies these metrics in the videos, and I’m sure we’ll hear more about that next week.

To test this, I've done some online trawling, and indeed, each product appears to have a consistent price floor. Maintaining pricing discipline appears to be a core value – it maintains margins and supports the delivery of value to the healthcare-professional-retailers.

3. A Global Rollout that Follows the Australian GTM Approach

$BIO are not in a hurry in their global rollout. While they have plans for UK, EU, Canada and soon we'll hear about the USA, they are following a strategically slow approach.

The UK and Ireland is an example. They've been working there already with key professionals and opinion leaders to market test the product fit and build the support of the healthcare professional community.

This approach is consistent with what they've delivered in Australia since 2018. It not a boots-on-the-ground and roll it out classic FMCG sales and marketing strategy. They want to work with the targeted healthcare professionals to build product support and market fit.

(I think BVN started out in luxury goods marketing, so he understands brand value and pricing!)

This is very important to me, because it means that with the next 1-2 years of getting going in the UK, we'll have an opportunity to see to what extent they can scale in another market. And from UKI, then the EU is next.

4. Capital Raise - What Capital Raise?

In my bearish response over the weekend to @Tezzdog, I "confidently" predicted that with the recent, massive uptick in SP, and the impending global rollout, that $BIO will be raising capital, and soon.

But will they? Watch the video and see what you think. BVN clearly takes some pride in that they haven’t done a major raising since IPO and that they are now cashflow positive. Their GTM approach is entirely consistent with boot-strapped growth (think $PME).

Furthermore, with 60% gross margins (which I think must include elements of embedded "R&D" and "manufacuting capex" in the cost of goods given their business model), excellent expense control, and a capital-light model, maybe they can do it.

That said, the SP has gone crazy over the last year, so perhaps there is something to be said for building a strong balance sheet. Defintitely one for @Strawman to question on Monday.

5. Market Position

This is really all about Australia. $BIO has established 5,000 “distribution points” across Australia, roughly split 50:50 between community pharmacies and practitioners. They have deals with Terry White Chemmart (600 pharmacies) and Priceline, and supply 1500+ independent pharmacies, giving them a product line that the big discounters can’t access -well they can if they are prepared to pay the full price.

So, what does $13m of sales look like in an Australian market context?

Well, according to Research and Market (2023), the overall market size is around $350m. But of course much that includes the animal segment and probiotic foods. Based on an older source (2016), only about 8-10% of the headline market relates to “Dietary Supplements”. If that’s true, then $BIO have achieved a significant Australian market share in 5-6 years. (I need to do more work on this.)

BVN believes the runway ahead in Australia is 8x current sales, driven by doubling the number of outlets and then growing the sales per outlet. I’m less sure about this, and hopefully we can discuss further on Monday. (To what extent does the “creaming curve” and “diminishing return” come in to play?)

In any event, it looks like there is a good runway ahead in Australia, where they appear to have established a financially sustainable model at $13m revenue, growing at c. 70-80% p.a..

6. Economics and Scaling - Looks Good So Far

6.1 Quarterly Cash Flow Trends

(edited straw now includes legend in graph below)

The chart above shows my usual trend analysis from the 4C Cashflow statements. While there is some seasonality through the year (which BVN comments on), the trend is clear.

This business appears to have clearly headed to the inflection point, while yet to achieve $15m in annual revenue. This has been possible because of disciplined expense control and the capital light model (R&D partnerships, and outsourced manufacturing – active agents and formulation.)

6.2 Balance Sheet

With only $2m in cash at the last 4C, $BIO is running close to having to raise capital.

However, rather than do this (beyond exercise of options), BVN has been drawing down some debt. At the last 4C they had drawn $1m of a $1.2m facility.

Although $BIO now appears to be cashflow positive, a question for the SM meeting is whether it would be prudent to leverage the current high SP and raise some capital to buttress the balance sheet for the next phase of growth. (To my mind, $20 million wouldn't be too dilutive, and would give some head room on staffing, and licencing in new molecules.)

6.3 Financials and a What-If Scenario

I’ve done a little “spreadsheet jockeying” this week (of course, as I’ve had two weeks of cold turkey!), and from the 2021-2024F actuals, and a modelled scenario for FY25 and FY26 I have developed the picture below.

The above picture is a scenario – its not a forecast!

What it shows is the impact of strong revenue growth, 78%, 76% and 80% (FC) for the last 3 years, including the current.

Expense control has been exemplary, with +3.4% (FY22) and +6.7% (FY23), and I’ve thrown in a +20% assumption for each of FY24, FY25 and FY26.

With minimal D&A (capital light), if revenue growth in FY25 and FY26 are 75% and 70%, this baby is soon generating a meaningful NPAT!

Why did I choose these revenue growth numbers for this scenario – see my comments in 5. Market Position, above. And BVN says in the video that current rates of growth can be sustained in the short to medium term.

7. Ownership

According to Simply Wall Street, individual insiders own 34.5% of $BIO, with BVN’s shareholding at 8.5%, and BVN’s long-term partner in science Dr JB (who I referred to last weekend as the part-time chief scientific officer) has 1.72%,

So, there is reasonable alignment and, in one year, BVN has become a wealthy man!

8. Valuation

In my experience, it is notoriously difficult to value a company that’s coming up to the inflection point.

In terms of valuation multiples, you might take one look at 11x Revenue and move on.

But if $BIO can deliver the financial performance in the scenario I’ve shown above, then at a SP of $0.63, its P/E in 2026 falls to 19.

If its P/E in 2026 is 40 (which would be very modest given my forecast revenue and earning growth), then the valuation discounted back to today would be $1.10.

So that’s not a valuation, but as a result I felt quite comfortable taking a RL position of 0.25% because I want to follow this business very carefully as I do further research.

4Q is typically a high payments period, so if there is a bit of a "SP panic" at the next 4C, I’ll up my position. Whatever happens, our shared experiences here in microcap land is that you can take your time building a position. FOMO is for Dumbos!

9. BVN – A Founder with a Vision

BVN tells his personal story in the longer video – and it is quite interesting. I’m quite impressed by him. We’ll all get a chance to form our own views next week, so I’ll keep this brief.

One point from his CV is that he is a Non-Exec Board Member of the International Probiotics Association. I think this is interesting because it means he is linked into the global industry players, and this role will help him incubate the partnerships that are key to $BIO’s business model. And it also gives him an international industry perspective, which is so important to $BIO’s long-term success. (You can see some of his posts showing his attendance at industry events on LinkedIn.)

CONCLUSIONS

I find $BIO and BVN interesting. It was easy to be dismissive with 1 hour’s research on Sunday. But with now 30 hours of more in-depth work under my belt, including updating my view on the sector globally, I find $BIO to be very interesting and am really looking forward to next week’s meeting.

I still have concerns about the Board and Management bench strength, given the company’s ambition. But I find BVN to be impressive. He is the founder and has a vision for this firm. He appears to be strongly values-driven, and clearly articulates his strategic thinking. (And remember, Sam Huppert and Richard White grew with their businesses over the years!)

While I don’t completely buy everything he has said (when viewed from the perspective of some of the larger probiotic-specialist competitors overseas), $BIO is definitely a unique play in this part of the world. The big question is – how do they scale and compete internationally? UKI will give us the first insights, and we will see this over the next 1-2 years. Yay!

My final word – thank you @Tezzdog for asking the question! If nothing else, you have helped me have a very interesting first week back from holiday.

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Claude.AIs Summary of the "Shares In Value" Interview with BVN (5th July 2024)

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Company Background and History

Biome Australia (ASX: BIO) is a company focused on developing and commercializing live biotherapeutics and complementary medicines. Founded by Blair Vega Norfolk in 2018, the company's journey began much earlier:

• In 2012, Norfolk completed his MBA and was working in California advising nutraceutical companies on customer understanding.
•  After developing his second autoimmune disease, Norfolk partnered with Dr. JB, an Australian PhD in medicine with 20-30 years in drug research, to formulate nutraceutical products in 2013.
• They initially planned to test market in Australia before launching in North America, but realized Australia was a significant market for complementary medicines and probiotics.
• From 2013-2018, they used their initial company as a vehicle for R&D, market understanding, and building relationships with distributors, pharmacy groups, and suppliers.
• In 2016, they moved into R&D and research in the microbiome space.
• Biome Australia was founded in 2018 to focus on condition-specific probiotic products.

Product Range and Unique Selling Proposition

Biome Australia launched its Activated Probiotics brand in November 2019 with nine products. Key aspects include:

• First-mover in condition-specific probiotic products globally
• Unique IP and products put through randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind clinical trials

Product highlights:

• Biome Lift: Clinically validated probiotic for mental health
• Biome Fem: Probiotic for female vaginal health conditions

The company's point of difference in the market includes:

• First-mover advantage in condition-specific probiotics
• World-first clinical trials
• No direct competition on their products
• Premium, affordable pricing strategy without discounts
• Strong margin (60%+) compared to industry standards

Growth and Distribution

Biome Australia has experienced rapid growth since its launch:

• FY20: 100 stores, $800,000 revenue
• FY21: 1000+ stores, $2.1 million revenue
• FY22: $4.1 million revenue
• FY23: $7.2 million revenue
• FY24: $13 million revenue (beating upgraded forecast of $12.5 million)

Current distribution:

• Approximately 5,000 distribution points in Australia
• Roughly 50/50 split between community pharmacies and practitioner market
• Major customers include Terry White Chemmart (600 pharmacies) and Priceline Pharmacy
• 1500+ independent pharmacies

Future growth strategy:

• Currently at 40% of addressable market in terms of distribution points
• Only 25% developed within existing distribution footprint
• Potential to quadruple current revenue with existing distribution
• Opportunity to double distribution
• Conservative approach to expansion, focusing on optimizing existing accounts before adding new ones

Financial Performance and Outlook

Key financial highlights:

• Achieved first quarter of positive cash flow in December quarter (FY24 Q2)
• Positive cash flow in March and June quarters (FY24 Q3 and Q4)
• Positive EBITDA for the first two quarters in a row
• Cash flow positive and expected to remain so
• No capital raising since IPO ($8 million raised)
• Grew from $2 million to $13 million in sales and became profitable with initial capital

Future financial outlook:

• Continuing to reinvest for growth
• Aiming to become a significant dividend-paying business in the long term
•  Planning to release "Vision 27" - a three-year strategic plan
• Likely to provide revenue forecasts for upcoming quarters and financial years

Clinical Research Pipeline

Biome Australia differentiates itself through clinical trials on finished products:

• Leveraged 30 years of partner IP and research to develop their product range
• Own 40-50% of their product formulations and research
• For licensed products, conduct clinical trials to own hybrid IP

Current clinical trials:

1.    Biome Lift (mental health probiotic):

o  Study with La Trobe University on sub-threshold depression

o  Product on long-term exclusive license, but clinical trial gives Biome IP ownership

2.    Biome Daily Kids:

o  Study at Federation University on children in daycare settings

o  Focus on upper respiratory tract infections, colds, flu, and stomach bugs

o  Biome owns the IP, formulation, and concept

3.    Additional studies in late-stage development (yet to be announced)

Research strategy:

• Lean R&D budget
• Develop relationships with universities and IP companies
• Negotiate partnerships where Biome provides advice and product, while partners fund the studies

Product Efficacy and Impact

Biome Australia focuses on demonstrating product efficacy through:

• Clinical trials
• Real patient feedback and testimonials
• Visual evidence for dermatological products (e.g., eczema and acne treatments)

The company emphasizes its social and ethical impact:

• Registered as a B Corp company
• Reports on social, environmental, and sustainability standards
• Focuses on patient impact and improving quality of life

International Expansion

Biome Australia has a conservative but strategic approach to international expansion:

• Entered UK and Irish markets 2.5 years ago
• Initial soft launch focused on educating health professionals
• Launched into health retail in UK and Ireland in January 2024
• Recently received Health Canada approvals
• Considering North American market entry via Canada in the near future

Leadership and Vision

Blair Vega Norfolk's background and vision:

• Over 13 years of experience in the global nutraceutical and probiotic industry
• Passionate health advocate
• Speaks to medical professionals about probiotics
• Board member of the International Probiotic Association
• Goal to solve health problems not addressed by current medical interventions
• Aims to position Activated Probiotics products alongside pharmaceutical drugs
• Long-term vision to grow Biome Australia to rival major players like Blackmores

Investment Potential

Key points for potential investors:

• Microbiome space is leading drug discovery and development in the pharmaceutical industry
• Probiotic businesses globally are performing well due to product efficacy
• Biome Australia has potential to capture significant market share
• Company has internal expertise to potentially develop probiotic drugs in the future
• Considering pursuing TGA or FDA-approved probiotic drugs to gain trust from health professionals

Closing Remarks

• Investors can find more information on the Biome Australia website's Investor Hub
• The company is open to answering further queries from potential investors
• Biome Australia represents an opportunity in the growing microbiome and probiotic market, with a focus on clinically-proven, condition-specific products and a strong growth trajectory.

Today, I decided to visit my local pharmacy to inquire if they stocked Activated Probiotic. To my surprise, I received an overwhelmingly positive response from the pharmacist. I've interacted with this chap a few times before, but I've never seen his face light up like it did when I mentioned Activated Probiotic.

He enthusiastically told me, "We love this product!" and then eagerly asked me how I had heard about it. It was clear that this product is highly regarded and appreciated by the pharmacy staff. - So I'll add this data point of one into the investment matrix.

I see that Biome has released an ambitious 3 year revenue target of $75 - 85m total for the next 3 years (FY25 to FY27). We'll get the full 3 year strategic plan later this quarter.

As Blair notes in the announcement, the previous 3 year target through to FY24 was exceeded, by achieving $24m vs a targeted $21m.

A cumulative target is a little odd, and as with the previous 3 years certainly wont be linear. But, for the sake of argument, let's try and map the last 3 years onto the next.

FY22 -- $4.1m (16.8% of 3 year total)

FY23 -- $7.2m (29.6% of 3 year total)

FY24 -- $13m (53.5% of 3 year total)

If we assume the cumulative total through to FY27 will be $80m, and the same proportions hold (they won't, but let's just see anyway), then the next three years revenue will look like this:

FY25 -- $13.4m

FY26 -- $23.7m

FY27 -- $42.8m

Given we finished FY24 on a ARR of ~$15m, this already looks wrong. So let's try a consistent growth rate.

To get to a total of $80m, we'd need a rate of ~30%, so..

FY25 -- $20m

FY26 -- $25m

FY27 -- $35m

Anyway -- all just guess work to try and map out how the company arrived at a $75-85m target. The point is that they seem to think that they can sustain very high growth in the coming years.

To come at it from a valuation standpoint, let's thumb suck a FY27 NPAT of $4m and an ending PE of 35 to get a market cap of $140m, which would be a share price of ~65c with no dilution. Discounted back by 10%pa gives a fair value of 48c.

Anyway, all very basic back of the napkin stuff. But helps frame up expectations for me.

I know I haven't posted on $BIO for a few days. Partly because my investing effort is geting absorbed by results season, and partly because I have started some work getting stuck into reviewing the clinical research behind their products.

For anyone who is interested, they list relevant research papers in the "Science" tab for each product on the Activated Probiotics website. So, you can get a flavour of what has been done quite readily.

However, in one of the early products I investigated, at first I couldn't find evidence of a placebo-controlled, randomised, double-blind clinical trial (PCRDB) in the reseach papers cited by $BIO. Initially, I was concerned. But on doing a deeper search, eventually I DID find a relevant clinical study to this standard by one of their research partners, which was more recent that the study on the product website. (Why is it not the one quoted on the website?)

Long story short, the task of investigating the clinical work for 16 products (well, actually fewer, because there are some overlaps) is going to be a bigger undertaking than I initially thought. I am progressing it, and will report my finding here. But it might take a while.

So far, there are no major flags giving me concern that BVN's characterisation of their work is anything but accurate.

What I am finding is that there is a huge amount of clinical research on health benefits of probiotics - after all, there are many bacteria and almost countless strains, many competitors and a huge range of products out there.

On the "Science" element of the Deep Dive, I am forming some loosely supported hypotheses, bsaed on my work to date:

1. The vast majority of the clinical research on probiotics is of a lower standard than PCRDB.
2. Therefore, while perhaps not unique, $BIO is indeed an early mover in bringing strain-specific products to market with this level of clinical backing. So far, the reported clinical benefits are signficant. (especially, when you consider than many approved, "conventional" pharmaceuticals only have modest benefits in a proportion of patients treated.)
3. While they have some IP protection in wrapping the strain, the formulation, and the label claim backed by a cliniclal trial, it is conceivable that related strains might also deliver a similar clinical effect. So a determined or lucky competitor could launch a "me-too" product if they are prepared to invest (I am not a microbiologist, so I need to test this).
4. One issue I am uncovering is that in some of the cited clinical trial evidence I have read to date, it is unclear to me whether the trial was conducted with the same formulation as the commercial product. There are two sub-questions 1) Does this matter and 2) Is it that I just haven't uncovered the relevant clinical trial report. On 1) I think it does matter, because the formulation influences where in the gut and at what rate the product is delivered. So this is one flag to follow-up on.

Anyway, this is turning out to be a big piece of work that is causing some indigestion and heart burn ... pass the probiotics!

The good news - I can see why BVN says $BIO is a first mover and differentiated. There does appear to be good empirical science behind their claims, even if the mechanisms of action are less clear and - in some case - appear contestable. As far as I can see, much of the science of how the microbiome achieves outcomes is not fully understood. In many cases I've read there are plausible theories for the mechanisms, but that is not the same as proof. Again, the same is true in pharmaceuticals to some degree. But I am getting to the limit of my scientific competence here.

The less good news - if they develop a valuable business, I think any moat is less secure than one might think for a competitor prepared to go after it. But I have to get more input on this. Of course, this is where being an early-mover with a strong brand will help. And it is clear that they are making good progress in building a brand known to practitioners in Australia.

Lots of questions, but so far no red flags.

Held: RL (0.65%) and SM

What an interview - well done @Strawman. Your discussion approach was able to get a lot more insights out of Blair than other interviews out there, and I've gained a step-change in my own understanding. (I think this gives StrawPeople an edge over the market!)

Rather than summarise my key takeaways, because it will rehash much of what I've already written, I want to focus on Blair. But I recommend anyone who's interest has been piqued to watch the FULL interview.

Rarely (if ever in the microcap space) have I come across a CEO with such clarity and range, and internal cohesion in their strategic thinking. I truely rate Blair very highly, and as an example, draw attention to his ability to talk with clarity about 2024, 2025, next five years and next ten years. That's one sign of a great strategic leader. He also now has a cashflow positive business, so its not just a "story". He is the captain of his ship.

I upped my stake this morning in RL to 0.75% (as the market superficially appears to have taken some trading profits on a lower q-on-q receipts). I plan to go higher, but will wait now until I see the FY results and, more importantly, the three-year strategy which he will announce (and which I expect will role out some conservative 3-year targets)

I will place some trades to align Strawman (so please don't all just out and pop the SP before the close!! ;-) )

Very, very impressed.

Disc: Held in RL (0.75%) and SM

I conclude my week of immersion in probiotics (not literally) with a summary profile and some commentary on BioGaia - a $1.8bn market cap Swedish company and pioneer in probiotics development for some 30 years.

I chose this company because in many ways, it looks like $BIO might be if it is super-successful over the next 10 years. Understanding it also helps inform what $BIO is up against.

Metrics

I pulled out the following, making the rough conversion that BiaGaia reports in SEK, with 7 SEK about equal to 1 AUD. (Reference points are to the FY24 consensus.)

• P/E 30.4
• Market Cap / Revenue = 8.71 (so maybe the minnow $BIO is not so priecy after all)
• EV/EBITDA = 21.5
• 3 yr Revenue CAGR = 22%
• 3 yr NPAT CAGR = 28%
• Gross Margin = 73%
• Operating Margin = 35%
• Net Margin = 28%

Revenues are globally diversified: Americas (39%), EMEA (38%) APAC (23%)

Interestingly, it has also recently entered Canada. While there are some overlaps between BioGaia and $BIO products, there are also areas where they won't compete.

Thinking about the UK, while their products appear to be available and well-establised in several online channels, only one baby product is available via the Boots Chain. This indicates to me that they might also be following a similar discerning GTM strategy to $BIO.

Their product range is also widely available in Australia. So that's good news. $BIO has been able to achieve its success to date in Australia even with the strong presence of its more established European competitor. (I think this is rather important)

There are some big differences in strategy between the companies. For example, BioGaia does a lot of inhouse R&D, and it manufacturers (at least many) of its active agents with state of the art biofermentation facilities.

Also, the CVs of the Board and Management Team strike me as being a significant step up in strength and depth. (Sorry to bang on about it)

At about this stage, I have run out of steam for the week. So, I collared my BA Perplexity.AI and set them one final task for the week, providing them with the 2023 Annual Report to summarise along three key headings.

Here is the link to the report.

Here is my BA's summary (unedited) - but from a glance appears reasonable.

Here is a summary of BioGaia, focusing on their financial performance, product portfolio, and strategy/competitive advantages:

Financial Performance (2021-2023)

BioGaia has demonstrated strong financial performance over the past three years:

2023:

• Net sales: SEK 1,297 million (17% increase from 2022)
• Operating profit: SEK 443 million
• Operating margin: 34%

2022:

• Net sales: SEK 1,085 million (44% increase from 2021)
• Operating profit: SEK 387 million
• Operating margin: 36%

2021:

• Net sales: SEK 753 million (4% increase from 2020)
• Operating profit: SEK 254 million
• Operating margin: 34%

The company has shown consistent growth in net sales, with a significant jump in 2022 and continued strong performance in 2023. Operating margins have remained stable in the 34-36% range, indicating efficient operations and cost management.

Product Portfolio

BioGaia develops, manufactures, and markets probiotic products for gut, oral, and immune health. Their product portfolio includes:

Pediatrics (78% of sales in 2023):

• Protectis drops for infants
• Prodentis KIDS for oral health

Adult Health (21% of sales in 2023):

• Probiotic supplements for various health conditions
• Other (1% of sales in 2023):

Aldermis: Cosmetic probiotic skin ointment for infants and children

Key features of BioGaia's product portfolio:

• Based on L. reuteri bacterial strains
• Clinically proven effects
• Over 90% of products sold under the BioGaia brand or co-branding
• Available in over 100 countries

Strategy and Competitive Advantages

BioGaia's strategy and competitive advantages can be summarized in the following key areas:

1. Research and Innovation:

• Invest approximately 10% of net sales in R&D
• 30+ years of research and innovation in probiotics and microbiome
• 250+ published studies with BioGaia's bacteria strains
• 600 granted patents
• Collaboration with leading researchers worldwide

2. Brand Strategy:

• Transition from B2B to B2C model
• Increase product sales under the BioGaia brand
• Focus on building consumer trust and awareness

3. Omnichannel Distribution:

Two main distribution channels:

a) Distribution partners (nutrition and pharmaceutical companies)

b) Direct distribution through subsidiaries

Expanding e-commerce presence, particularly on platforms like Amazon

Six direct markets: USA, UK, Japan, Canada, Finland, and Sweden

4. Product Development:

• Continuous research to identify new applications for bacterial strains
• Development of consumer-friendly and high-quality probiotic products
• Focus on improving existing products (e.g., environmental sustainability, user-friendliness)

5. Global Expansion:

• Entering new direct markets (e.g., Canada in 2023)
• Strengthening partnerships in existing markets
• Adapting marketing strategies to local consumer needs (e.g., digital marketing on TikTok in China)

6. Financial Strength:

• Strong net cash balance
• Steady profitability and cash flow
• Ability to maintain dividend policy and invest in growth initiatives

7. Sustainability Focus:

• Commitment to sustainable product origins
• Investment in climate innovations
• Recognition with a gold medal by EcoVadis for sustainability efforts

8. Expertise and Leadership:

• Experienced management team with industry knowledge
• New CEO (Theresa Agnew) bringing extensive experience from consumer healthcare and OTC pharmaceuticals

9. Production Capabilities:

• Modern production facility in Eslöv, Sweden
• Semi-automated production lines
• Pilot facility for fermentation of next-generation probiotics

10. Market Position:

• World-leading probiotics company
• Pioneer in microbiome research
• High level of confidence among healthcare professionals

BioGaia's strategy focuses on leveraging its scientific expertise, strong brand, and global distribution network to maintain its position as a leader in the probiotics market. The company's commitment to research, product innovation, and sustainability, combined with its financial strength and flexible business model, positions it well for continued growth in the evolving health and wellness sector.

----

Happy weekend!

Very helpfully, $BIO have issued their 4C ahead of today's Strawman meeting, and reporting pretty early in the 4C cycle.

ASX Announcement

Their Highlight

• Record cash receipts of $3.23m in Q4 FY24, up 118% vs PCP
• Biome reports record quarterly sales revenue $3.8m, up 88% vs PCP
• Accounts receivable increase from $2.44m to $2.99m over the quarter
• Biome maintains gross margin above 60% for Q4 FY24
• As at June 30th, the company has a cash balance of $2.86m
• Biome records a third consecutive quarter of positive cash flow for Q4 FY24
• Biome records a second consecutive quarter of positive EBITDA for Q4 FY24
• Same-store pharmacy sales for Q4 up 78% vs PCP 

My Takeaways

Pretty decent results. I was half expecting to see slightly higher payments - based on last two years. But, no, the expense control continues to be excellent.

I have updated my standard CF trend analysis below. The above comment means the trend is ticking up nicely.

Good that %GM maintained at 60%.

For such a small cap, $BIO has quite a stable CF performance.

SP has got a bit spicey lately, and today's result looks like it will do nothing to take the heat out of it.

I'd like to increase my teany, tiny position, but I'm going to be careful not to do anything to add to the heat on this one. We've seem 2 weeks of fairly decent volumes, driving the SP up, with average daily volumes around a million shares or so. So, it looks like there is a bit of accummulation going on, probably on the back of the BP Buy recommendation. BP's sales forecast probably needs upping, so I expect to see them increase their price target at the next revision (will they do of the 4C or wait for the FY Result?).

My $1.10 "scenario" is looking less aggressive by the day.

Research Update

I've done a bunch of further research on the Probiotic Sector which I've not yet published. I think $BIO are building a good brand, but both in Australia and internationally, there are a LOT of brands in the market. There are also a lot of smaller players who, like $BIO, are getting science behind their products, as well as working on targeting the healtcare professional communities as well as building presence in B2C Channels. There are also an increasing number of products that have sustained released encapsulation technologies to get the active agent to the right part of the gut. (As I said in my first post, these technologies are decades old, but of course there is continuous innovation here.)

\While there is no doubt they are doing a great job in Australia, I need to see evidence of what the international business looks like before building too significant a position.

Disc: Held in RL(0.25%) and SM

Interview with Biome CEO Blair Vaga Norfolk on Strawman

Biome produces probiotics products based on clinically tested strains that target specific health issues. Traditionally the probiotic market has been focused primarily on gut health, but Biome has found evidence that probiotics can target a range of conditions including acne, depression, IBS, thrush and more.

Biome has two primary channels to market their products: practitioners (such as pharmacists and naturopaths), and health foods store and direct selling. Naturopaths are a key vehicle to educate the end user as they tend to move faster on new research and studies, while GPs are the slowest. Many GPs are still wary of new treatments. Blair doesn’t see this as an issue. The Biome approach is to educate the pharmacist and complementary medicine market, who in turn educate their patients. In this sense their marketing is more B2B than it may first appear. It also appears to be stickier revenue: the pharmacies are the one ordering the product, and will reorder if their customers are happy with the product.

Production and packaging of the product is handled by third parties, warehousing is in house. Blair would consider bringing some parts of this supply chain in house in the future, but primarily as a way to improve control and profit margin. Doesn’t sound like a priority in the short term.

Annual sales growth ~70-80% at 60% gross profit (impressive!).

Overall I was really impressed with what I learned about Biome. Blair came across as a very patient, confident manager who is prepared to move carefully. He seems to have a strong understanding of where his product is placed in the market and how to market it. He mentioned their existing UK operations are small but break even, and it sounds like this could be an excellent launch pad for the EU market when they are ready. This seems like a big opportunity. He notes that probiotics are far more accepted already in some parts of Europe (eg. Germany) than in others. Does that make it a more saturated market, though?

He’s planning to announce an updated sales strategy later this year. This will be very interesting to see. Based on what I have read so far, and saw today, he seems like a thoughtful manager who can execute.

Planning to buy a small initial holding and possibly more after further research. Blair was adamant there are no plans to raise capital at this stage which is impressive, given the recent run-up in price. 

The market cap is now $143 million which I believe means it’s going to be on the radar of more funds. If growth and profitability continue it will can’t help but attract more attention.

More positive newsflow for probiotics brand $BIO in both Canada and Australia.

ASX Announcement

Hightlights

● Following a successful test market launch in Canada, Biome moves to an official market launch in both health retail and practitioner markets

● First Canadian staff member to start on the road (in Ontario) this November

● Three additional products approved by Health Canada in October

● Biome reaches a new three month record with 188,000 consumer units purchased of Activated Probiotics in Australian market, up ~60% vs PCP (Aug-Oct 2023)

● Terry White Chemmart retail scan sales reach $3.5m for 12 months to October up ~75%

● Biome Cholesterol Probiotic successfully launched internationally 

My Assessment

Good news all round.

Sales appear to be running ahead of the 50% my model requires for $BIO to hit the 2027 Strategic goals.

The test maketing period in Canada was shorter than I had in mind (no good reason), so the full commercial rollout with 12/17 products approved will start to get acoounts going this year. While the FY25 contribution to sales will be small, it sets things up nicely for FY26 and beyond. BVN has spoken very positively about the Canadian market in his last presentation, which as I recall was delivered while he was in Canada. A leading indicator of market traction will be indicated by the rate at which BVN adds further "educational" staff.

Overall, good news.

I'm happy to keep at my current RL position which is 2%, as I still see this as a higher risk proposition and will build my position over time.

Disc: Held in RL and SM

$BIO follow-up hard on the heels of yesterday's Vision 27 strategy launch with their quarterly sales result.

Their Highlights

● Biome achieves record quarterly sales revenue of ~$4.25m (unaudited)

● Sales revenue increased ~$1.51m or 55% vs PCP Q1 FY24

● Sales revenue increased ~$450k or 12% vs Q4 FY24

● Q1 Sales revenue represents a ~$17m annualised run rate (ARR) 

My Analysis

A good result, ahead of their announced quarterly target by 6.3%.

With a Q1 annualised sales run-rate of $17m on a growth trajectory of +55% to pcp, depending on quarterly variability an annual result of $20m is potentially within reach. (My valuation central case has $19.5m for FY25) That would potentially lead to a maiden positive NPAT result ... but I am getting ahead of myself here. In any event, this should be increasing the quarterly net cash surpluses nicely.

Overall: On track.

Note: My criterion to increase my holding further is some visibility of product-market fit in UKI, as this is central to my long-term thesis. I'll measure this by the international sales trajectory incremental to FY24 $0.895m, as the contribution from other markets is likely small.

Disc: Held in RL (2%) and SM

As I speculated yesterday, Bell Potter have updated their valuation slightly off the back of yesterday's 4C. I haven't seen the updated report yet, but picked the following FN Arena summary off the news-wires. Likely explains this morning's SP response, recoverings yesterday's "profit-taking".

TP change appears related only due to tweaking the discount rate - which I don't understand. But in any event, they are still probably below where I sit on valuation, particularly after yesterday's SM meeting.

From FN Arena

Displaying the fastest sales growth of the past five quarters, notes Bell Potter, Biome Australia's June quarter increased by 88% on the previous corresponding period.

Also, operating cash flow (OCF) nearly doubled the March quarter, and was the third successive positive quarter, highlights the broker.

Bell Potter attributes sales growth to the release of new products over FY24 and a 25% increase in distribution footprint across pharmacy and health practitioners. Pharmacy sales account for around 66% of total sales, note the analysts.

The target rises to 80c from 73c as the broker lowers the assumed discount rate to 11.8% from 12.5%.

Sector: Household & Personal Products.

Target price is $0.80.Current Price is $0.73. Difference: $0.08 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If BIO meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Disc: Held in RL and SM

A bit over a week ago Intelligent Investor posted a research writeup on Biome - titled "Biome's balancing act - This probiotic startup is enjoying strong demand, but it's an uphill battle from here"

It's behind their paywall but ended not with a "Buy", "Sell" or "Hold" rating but rather with a "We'll be watching Biome from the sidelines"

Some of what they covered in the writeup was discussed in their latest Intelligent Investor : Stock Take Podcast which is also available on Youtube

https://youtu.be/S_5DyF1aWdk?si=r37MB3m8Phu8zfMZ&t=1900

The Biome discussion starts at around 31:40

ASX ANNOUNCEMENT

2 September 2024

Q1 FY25 Revenue Guidance

● Biome forecast Q1 FY25 sales revenue to surpass $4.0m

Microbiome health company Biome Australia Limited (ASX: BIO) (‘Biome’ or ‘the company’) is pleased to announce, after a strong start to the September quarter, Q1 sales revenue is expected to surpass $4.0m. This result will lead to a new record quarter for sales revenue after last quarter’s record of $3.8m (Q4 FY24).

I checked Biome website:

Activated Probiotics® is a world-first range of live biotherapeutic products clinically proven to help prevent and support the management of various health concerns, including low mood and sleep, bone health, iron malabsorption, mild eczema and IBS, through randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trials. Through practitioner-only distribution, Biome is committed to educating health professionals on the newfound systemic health effects of the gut microbiota and helps them to provide innovative and evidence-based complementary medicines for the management of some of humanity’s most prevalent and chronic health concerns.

Biome also developed and distributes scientifically formulated, organic nutraceutical range Activated Nutrients®.

Story — Biome Australia

ASX ANNOUNCEMENT

29 July 2024

Biome shares revenue target as part of Vision 27 Strategic Plan

• ● Biome sets revenue target of up to $85m cumulative through the next three years (FY25-FY27)
• ● Biome exceeded the last three-year cumulative target (FY21-24) by 14% overall ($24m vs $21m)

○ The final year of this plan was exceeded by 30% ($13m vs $10m) ● Biome’s Vision 27 target of up to $85m represents an over 400%

increase on previous three-year target

Microbiome health company Biome Australia Limited (ASX: BIO) (‘Biome’ or ‘the company’) is pleased to announce a revenue target that will be driven by Biome’s Vision 27, three-year strategic plan, due to be released to the market later this quarter.

The cumulative revenue target has been set at a range of $75m to $85m over three years (1 July, 2024 - 30 June, 2027). This represents more than 400% growth over the preceding period’s target of $21m and 350% compared to the actual result of $24m in cumulative sales revenue (FY21-24).

The key focus is to continue to invest for growth while continuing to grow profit.

Biome will share the complete Vision 27 with the market later this quarter, supported by an investor webinar.

BIO appears on The Call on Ausbiz today.

Click here

Michael Wayne and Henry Jennings both gave it what I gather was a quick look over.

Both suggesting that investors take profits at this point, given the run up in SP.

Scene: Somewhere on Teams, Zoom, or in a Boardroom in VIC, Australia.

BVN: "OK, the way I see it, we have 2 choices to get the SP moving."

Ilario and Dominique (in unison): "Oh yay. What's that?"

BVN: "Option 1, I put out a price sensitive announcement saying that we're going to change the corporate logo."

Ilario and Dominique (in unison): "OK,... and ....Option 2?"

BVN: "You guys follow my lead and buy a few shares each."

Ilario and Dominique (in unison): "Oh,....OK. Sounds like we'll go with 2."

BVN: "Cool, I'll get right on with writing the ASX release."

{Legal Notice: The above script is purely fictional. Any resemblance to real people or events is purely coincidental}

Disc: Held in RL and SM

Probiotics firm $BIO have announced their Vision 27 strategic plan, as CEO Blair had promised for September. (No announcement of a webinar to go with it as yet, but the presentation is reasonable self-contained).

Presentation

Much is the market sensitive information has been released before: (cumulative revenue target FY25-27 of $75-85m; test market entry to Canada)

There are some more detailed specifics about individual markets, albeit entirely consistent with what's been said before, and also on supply chain.

There is reference to a new proprietary strain of L. plantarum XXXX (name to be finalised) without saying what it's for.

There is also reference to an upcoming new brand and product range aimed at filling an existing market gap. Not a lot of detail here and we'll find out more in H2FY25, (I am idly speculating that this is a more generic range to create more SKUs in the behind the counter display, probably not back up by the clinical trials on condition-specific labels, Differentiated brand is so as not to confuse the with the clincal-supported label claims of the Activated Probiotics range)

Those are just some initial observations from a very quick scan.

Dis: Held in RL and SM

I attended the BIO company presentation webinar this morning.

For the recording Click here

Blair Norfolk spoke to this document released late last month: Click here

There were no revelations that I picked up on as he stuck to the script and really worked his way through the previously released document, which is worth a read.

He pushed his consistent lines:

• The company produces 18 quality products.
• Biome works closely with Pharmacists and chemists, the aim is to have these professionals promote and sell.
• Biome aims to maximise margins for pharmacists to incentivise recommending the products. The cut for a pharmacy could be from $13-$28 for a Biome product v a few dollars from most products a pharmacist might sell (that was my understanding).
• BIO have avoided working with "discount" chemists etc and do not intent getting into discounting products in a short term sugar rush, race to the bottom.
• When asked about possible cap raise Blair said this was not on the radar.

When asked if there were any funds investing in the company, Blair said that there were some. However none had exceeded the 5% threshold and therefore did not need to disclose these holdings.

Just before the webinar, the company released an announcement to say that will set a new sales record for Q1 2025.

Blair also added that the company will update the market on their Vision 2027 strategic plan sometime in the next three weeks.

Blair Norfolk on Ausbiz today:

"we love to under promise and over deliver"

https://ausbiz.com.au/media/biomes-expanding-ecosystem-?videoId=37065

In my ongoing research, this morning I came across a Bell Potter note - well the front page at least! (Updated June-24, TP=0.73)

Just to compare, their FY25 and FY26 NPAT is $0.3m and $3.2m, respectively. My "scenario" that I showed in yesterday's straw (which I argued supports a TP of $1.10), has values of $1.9m and $7.4m.

So my "scenario" is quite a bit more bullish than BP, but in the grand scheme of things, it is in the ballpark.

If I am critical of this note, it appears that they talk about a "gap in the market". This may be true about the Australian market (which is also supported by @Rick's anecdote, yesterday). However, I am less clear the extent to which the same can be said in other markets.

Without making a negative remark about Bell Potter, I do make the general comment that some analysts tend just to repackage what management has told them, without doing independent, fact-based research. So, in sharing this research, I am not endorsing the statements, but just sharing the views of others.

I remain in an information gathering and analysis mode, and I am not yet taking a view on the stock (for avoidance of doubt). But it is interesting.

Disc: Held in RL (0.25%) and SM

More "soft news". But good news non the less. Onward and upward

ASX ANNOUNCEMENT

27 November 2024

Q2 FY25 Revenue Guidance

● Biome forecast Q2 FY25 sales revenue to surpass $4.5m

Microbiome health company Biome Australia Limited (ASX: BIO) (‘Biome’ or ‘the company’) is pleased to announce strong growth has continued through the December quarter-to-date, with Q2 sales revenue expected to surpass $4.5m. This result will lead to a new quarterly record for sales revenue after last quarter’s record of $4.25m (Q1 FY25).

In the words of @mikebrisy "Soft News"

Still, another feather in Biomes cap.

Another potential product in the bottom draw.

ASX ANNOUNCEMENT

14 November 2024

Biome Strain Development Program Success

• ● Biome has successfully completed the identification, commercial validation and initial characterisation of the probiotic strain Lactobacillus plantarum BMB18
• ● The strain has been lodged with the German culture bank DSMZ
• ● Transfer of the intellectual property, BMB18, to Biome will take place in the coming
• weeks from Biome’s R&D partner
• ● This new IP will strengthen Biome’s advantage in probiotic product development and
• increase protection from competition

Click here for full announcement

Return (inc div)   1yr: 465.38%   3yr: N/A   5yr: N/A

Distributer footprint:

Ecotrend Ecologics | Natural Health Product Distributor

Today we manage over 2500 retail and over 2500 professional accounts, as well as work with over 120 fantastic and unique brands. Ecotrend believes in the human touch. Family and friends play an important role in the almost familial relationships we are proud to maintain with our brands. Treating both people and our planet with dignity, Ecotrend has nurtured a foundation of loyalty and trust. Health is not just supplements and vitamins; it’s a lifestyle. Ecotrend Ecologics is your go-to distributor for high-quality lifestyle products, including top brands of vitamins and supplements.

For what it's worth, Canary Capital brought out the following "Equity research report" last week. Click here

While this may be their effort to pump up the share price, its worth a read.

The report gives some background to the company and the industry. It outlines some key risks the company faces.

Also BIO is compared to Blackmore's, Life-space and Swisse. All of which have been bought out.

Did anyone else notice the coincidental timing of the directors being issued 6.7m shares on December 1, 2023, funded by a loan from the company with a price of 12c/share and then what happened to the share price from the day they were issued ? From what I can see there is no escrow period on those shares.

BIO has just released their anticipated plan for the next 3 years "Vision 27" click here

Video presentation click here Once again Blair presents very well. Seems to know his stuff, seems to be across various pharmacy markets worldwide.

At first glance the outlook seems positive, potentially very positive

A few key take aways:

• Increase pharmacy/distribution points in Australia from 5,000 - 8,000 (67% TAM)
• Increase companies global footprint, pushing into Canada and Europe. Funded via existing cash flow.
• New product range to launch in H2 FY25.
• Intellectual Property agreement was completed in FY24 and accompanying project to develop novel biological IP is well underway

ASX ANNOUNCEMENT

19 August 2024

Biome’s Clinically Proven Cholesterol Reducing Probiotic Launched:

• ● Biome has launched its new cholesterol lowering probiotic, Biome Cholesterol Probiotic, in both pharmacy and practitioner channels.
• ● A double blind, placebo controlled 12 week trial reduced total cholesterol by 14% and LDL (bad cholesterol) by 15% whilst increasing HDL (good cholesterol) by 7% compared to baseline
• ● Potential for Biome Cholesterol Probiotic to be used as an adjunct alongside statins to support increased efficacy of treatment or to reduce the dosage and side effects of this type of treatment
• ● For people who don’t tolerate statins therapy, Biome Cholesterol Probiotic will provide physicians with an additional therapeutic option to help manage the cholesterol levels of these patients
• ● Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death globally with high total cholesterol, high LDL cholesterol and low HDL cholesterol being major risk factors
• ● More than 4 million Australians are reported to be living with cardiovascular diseases

https://investorpa.com/announcement-pdf/20240819/24969.pdf

Still learning about this company. Up 10% on Friday and has doubled in value from 11 Jun - so thought would post in the hope of getting Straw insights on this stock as does have a lot of coverage ATM.

Announcement of 1 Jul notes:

• $13M FY24 sales revenue, up 80% vs PCP,
• $3.8M Q4 sales FY24 up 88% vs PCP
• Third consecutive qtr of positive cash flow and second consecutive qtr of positive EBITDA for Q4FY24.

BIO develop, licence, commercialise and market innovative, evidenced based probiotics. Many of their products are supported by clinical trials. Marketing strategy seems to start with self designated practitioner only sales through health care professionals, then expands into behind the counter sales. Strategy seems to be working - positions the product as superior to on the shelf competition. In Australia and recently launched into the UK/Ireland - so is it time to hop on board?

Market Cap - $135.5M, SOI 215M. SP currently at 52 week high at 63c with 52 week low of 7.5c on 4 July 23

Strawman would be great if you could interview the CEO ;)

Disclosure - Purchased parcel in RL

Managing Director Blair Norfolk at Bell Potter Healthcare Conference

viewed this just yet. Hopefully later today

Q1 Sales revenue represents a ~$17m annualised run rate (ARR) 

Get Share price going - Activated Probiotics, Activated Nutrients, and AXP. 

BIOME AUSTRALIA LIMITED (ASX:BIO) - Ann: Record quarterly sales revenue for Q1, page-1 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

ASX ANNOUNCEMENT 1 October 2024 Biome reports record quarterly sales revenue for Q1 FY25

● Biome achieves record quarterly sales revenue of ~$4.25m (unaudited)

● Sales revenue increased ~$1.51m or 55% vs PCP Q1 FY24

● Sales revenue increased ~$450k or 12% vs Q4 FY24

● Q1 Sales revenue represents a ~$17m annualised run rate (ARR) Microbiome health company Biome Australia Limited (ASX: BIO) (‘Biome’ or ‘the company’) is pleased to provide a trading update for Q1 FY25. Biome’s quarterly sales revenue totalled ~$4.25m (unaudited), representing a 55% increase vs the previous corresponding period (Q1 FY24, $2.74m) and 12% above the previous record quarter (Q4 FY24, $3.8m).

This result exceeded the $4m target for the quarter (Ref: ASX announcement dated 3 September 2024) by $250k or 6.3%. Biome’s Q1 sales revenue represents an annualised run rate of $17m, with growth expected to continue through the remainder of FY25.

Biome Australia’s Managing Director and Founder, Blair Vega Norfolk, commented: “I am excited to share this result for Q1 FY25, another record quarter in sales revenue following our recent release of Biome’s Vision 27, which outlined our growth plan and prospects over the next three years.

I look forward to sharing further updates on our growth and performance in the coming periods.” -ENDS

Posted on the Ausbiz Youtube channel

Biome Australia (BIO) pitched by Canary Capital

On the face of it this seems pretty good. Blair and team continue to deliver

Quarterly Activities & Appendix 4C September 2024

● Biome records $122k of EBITDA for Q1 (Adjusted for share based payments) ○ Third consecutive quarter of positive EBITDA

• ● Record cash receipts of $3.89m in Q1, up 84% vs PCP
• ● Biome reports record quarterly sales revenue $4.25m, up 12% vs Q4 FY24
• ● Biome maintains gross margin above 60% for Q1
• ● Same-store pharmacy sales for Q1 up 68% vs PCP
• ● Clinically proven cholesterol lowering product, Biome Cholesterol launched
• ● Test market in Canada commenced and strategic distribution deal signed
• ● As at September 30th, the company has a cash balance of $2.67m

Fill Announcement click here

The push into the North American region begins:

ASX ANNOUNCEMENT

19 September 2024

• ● Biome executes agreement to distribute Activated Proibotics in Canada with new partner Ecotrend Ecologics
• ● Biome’s Activated Probiotics team presents and exhibits at CHFA Now in Toronto

Full Ann - click here

ASX ANNOUNCEMENT

29 July 2024

Biome shares revenue target as part of Vision 27 Strategic Plan

● Biome sets revenue target of up to $85m cumulative through the next three years (FY25-FY27)

● Biome exceeded the last three-year cumulative target (FY21-24) by 14% overall ($24m vs $21m)

○ The final year of this plan was exceeded by 30% ($13m vs $10m) 

● Biome’s Vision 27 target of up to $85m represents an over 400% increase on previous three-year target.

https://investorpa.com/announcement-pdf/20240819/24906.pdf

There was talk of this 3 year target being an odd move by Blair. Lets see how it plays out

Biome Australia (ASX:BIO) | Webinar with Blair Norfolk | 16/10/24 - Sharewise

Click here