Morning everyone. There’s been a lot of doom and gloom around CSL lately with the CEO turnover, the $700M restructuring hit, and Morningstar capitulating on their Fair Value (slashing it to $210).
But looking at the recent institutional flow data, it looks like we are witnessing a textbook wealth transfer.
The Sellers (Impatient Growth): The funds dumping CSL right now (like Platypus and some global growth funds) are doing so because the hyper-growth narrative is broken. With margins looking capped around 52%, CSL can't deliver the 20%+ EPS compounding those mandates require.
The Buyers (Patient Value): But look at who is soaking up all those dumped shares in the low $140s. Strict contrarian value managers like Allan Gray and Perpetual are suddenly flocking to the stock. Add to that CSL's own management aggressively executing their $750M buyback right at these depressed levels.
The value guys aren't buying a turnaround; they are buying an elite, defensive ~16% ROE engine that is suddenly trading at a massive discount because the "growth" premium has been stripped out.
Is anyone else tracking this institutional rotation? Do you think Allan Gray and the value funds are making a brilliant contrarian play here, or are they just catching a falling knife? Would love to hear your thoughts.