The Last Straw

Extraordinary returns come from extraordinary mis-pricings. And those only happen when most people hold a deeply flawed vision of the future. The trouble is, the dominant view never feels unreasonable at the time. It usually seems obvious — self-evident, even. That’s precisely why so many people, including the seasoned pros, buy into it. And let’s be honest: it takes a […]

I’ve had a tough time of late with my home broadband provider, Optus. The details are too painful (and boring) to recount, but let’s just say that after 10 days without internet, I’ve learned the true meaning of “on hold.” Rather than scream into the void, I decided to channel my rage productively: digging into Optus’s financials. If it sucks […]

This time last year, the big names in finance were practically shrugging at the Aussie market’s prospects for 2024. AMP predicted a modest 4% gain, with the RBA supposedly cutting rates from 4.35% to 3.6% to keep things afloat. UBS said the ASX200 would end the year right where it started. ANZ forecasted “mid-single-digit returns with risks skewed to the downside.” […]

With a little over a week before the end of the year, I think our little investment community can safely declare success for 2024. The Strawman Index, which tracks the most widely held stocks across member portfolios, smashed it out of the park with a 23.5% return for the 12 months through to December 19. Handily outpacing what was a very […]

Everyone loves to talk about being a “long-term investor.” It almost sounds noble, and certainly a far wiser pursuit than the degeneracies of trading. Not without good reason, either. When your focus is beyond the immediate future you allow time for compounding to do it’s thing, and you’re less likely to be shaken out by volatility. When you find a great […]

Two of the best books I’ve read in recent years are Sapiens, by Yuval Noah Harari, and The Beginning of Infinity, by David Deutsch. Neither is related to investing, but they’ve been incredibly valuable in shaping how I think about it. Specifically in regard to the importance of narrative and the nature of knowledge. Harari argues that much of human interaction — […]

Ian Cassel absolutely nails it with this tweet On the ASX alone there are over 2,000 individual stocks. There’s something like 10,000 across all US equity markets. It’s impossible to have a thorough understanding of every single one. The good news is, you don’t need to. In fact, you shouldn’t even try. Having a take on every company doesn’t make […]

George Soros once said, “It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.” It’s the kind of thing that sounds obvious until you realize how few investors actually live by it. Most of us are obsessed with being “right” as often as possible […]

You might have heard the tale about the fund manager with a quirky hiring practice. Each time he needed a new analyst, he’d begin by taking half the resumes and — without even a glance — tossing them straight in the bin. His rationale? “I don’t hire unlucky people.” Now, while this story is almost certainly apocryphal, there’s a twisted […]