Overnight, $RUL announced the following product launch at MINExpro 2024 in Nevada. This is a pretty important product for mine operations.

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RPMGlobal Launches Fleet Optimisation Solution

26 September 2024

RPMGlobal (RPM), a global leader in mining software technology, is pleased to announce its new fleet optimisation solution at MINExpo 2024 in Las Vegas Nevada. FleetOptimiser continues RPM’s journey towards cloud-based solutions, offering a product designed for customers to calculate and optimise their trucking requirements for a shift.

The solution combines a 3D, visual user interface with RPM’s universal fleet calculation wrapped up in a secure, web accessible, cloud-based solution.

Up until now desktop models and spreadsheets have been used to calculate the viability of the mine plan. This creates downstream issues with difficulty maintaining data, accuracy issues, and version control. Several products have provided truck limited scheduling over the years which works well in a long-term horizon, however applying the same techniques to the more detailed short-term space has always fallen short.

FleetOptimiser uses the RPM travel time calculation engine, the industry standard, that is embedded across many of their mining software solutions. It calculates productivity for trucks across a haulage network while matching truck productivity to targeted loader productivity.

According to Michael Baldwin, RPMGlobal’s Chief Commercial Officer, engineers have been dreaming about this product for years. “There has always been conflict between planners and operations with respect to what an achievable plan actually is. FleetOptimiser lets the planner optimise realistic targets for the upcoming shifts while operations can use FleetOptimiser to reconfigure fleet throughout the shift as parameters change, all through a web-based 3D intuitive user experience,” said Baldwin.

Mine planners who use XECUTE, or other execution scheduling applications, can rapidly react to changes in truck availability by simulating the impact on load productivity, and then incorporate the required changes in their plan.

The solution also provides the user with functionality to update and maintain the current road network if required. Calibrated fleet settings can also be controlled through the solution, allowing for standardisation across the entire organisation.

“The market's excitement around FleetOptimiser is clear, and the feedback from our early adopters has been overwhelmingly positive. FleetOptimiser offers planners the solution they have been seeking and promises to deliver a significant productivity shift for the industry” Baldwin concluded.

For more information on the FleetOptimiser solution or other RPMGlobal solutions, please visit www.rpmglobal.com or visit the RPM Booth, number 6163 at MINExpo for live demonstrations and presentations.

I've been wondering what's been going on with the $RUL buy back program over recent weeks, i.e., nothing.

At last results, CEO John Mathews said they'd continue to buy back shares in preference to issuing dividends as they don't have the franking credits, and within the existing program there is still ample capacity. But the last buyback announcement was 30-Aug. - which given the patterns of the last 18 months or so, is a significant pause. In the recent past, SP progression hasn't inhibited them steadily chipping away, so I wondered if the apparent pause was just that they wanted to build up some cash, but that didn't really make sense as they are well cash up.

Then this morning they posted this announcement about the fothcoming release from escrow of 0.53m shares from a 2021 acquisition on 30th Sept, and a lightbulb went off.

Having held back from repurchases, they are probably poised to snap up all these shares if ESG (the owners of the $RUL shares that were put in escrow as part of the deal) decide to offload them.

What do other holders or watchers think?

This is not material in any way to my investment thesis for $RUL, but just some idle speculation. On Friday's when I've achieved my priority work around my portfolio for the week, I usually take some time generally catching up on less significant developments in my portfolio and my watchlist. A nice gentle way to wind down for the Great Australian Weekend. (I don't do lunchtime drinking!)

$RUL pretty consistently buys back $50k shares per day (apart from the mini-tech correction we had recently when they opportunistically grabbed a lot more).

But the last two days are $200k and $200K.

Looks like they are trying to fight the emerging downtrend.

We will pass a milestone today in the $RUL buy back program. Based on Friday's report, today will see the cumulative buy back reach $20 million paid for 12.3m shares. There remain a maxiumum of 10.5m to go (22.8m total or 10% total SOI).

About $12m worth has been bought back over the last 12 months.

My reason for posting is that over recent months the behaviour of the buy back has changed. For much of last year, the buyback were more stop-start, dialling up when the SP fell below $1.55 and slowing or even stopping above about $1.60.

Now, with the SP right up at $2.45, they are pretty much buying $50,000 worth every day. On some days, they do buy fewer, and I think these are lower liquiduty days, when there are low volumes with offers close enough to the current SP. But I have been monitoring for a few months and $50,000 days are pretty much the norm. So $1m a month.

The buy-backs are typically 5-6% of average daily total volumes - although this varies hugely. Highest price paid is $2.60.

If the SP was to stay flat at $2.45, and if they keep buying $50,000, then the current announced program would run for another two years. Of course, SP likely to continue to rise, so it would go for even longer. Equally, there may come a point at which they stop as there is no obligation to execute the program announced.

I'm still puzzled why at $2.60, the highest return opportunity the board can see is eating themselves.

In the short term, I'm not complaining - as this level of buyback is continuing to put some support under the SP, and of course will directly drive EPS.

Disc: Held in RL and SM

I find it interesting that $RUL are still buying back shares - albeit low volumes. The program was a non-brainer at $1.40-$1,60, given that they aren't spending a lot on developing the platform,which would be my preference, and are focused on deployment.

I assume momentum traders are at work, with 5 buyers to every seller at the moment.

However, SP has run up hard in the last 4 months, so I wonder what view on value the Board has? Some StrawPeople see further to go. Guess I need to go back and do my own valuation.

Not complaining, just observing.

Disc: Held in RL and SM

Totally don't get the SP reaction on $RUL at open this morning. As @Chagsy reported yesterday evening, the result is fine.

I am still in accumulation mode for $RUL, so will be picking up some "cheap" shares this morning.

Disc: Held in RL and SM

$RUL have just upgraded FY24 guidance,.... for the second time in 6 weeks!

• Revenue to $110-115m, (up from $107-$112m, which was up from $105-$110m)
• Underlying EBITDA to $21.5-23.5m (up from $18.5-$20.5m which was up from $17.5-$19.5m) ....U/L excludes incentives
• PBT to $16.5-$18.0m (up from $13.5-$15.0m, previously $12.5-$14.0m)

The key message is that this is due to a one-off payment of $3.1m, resulting from a change of control at a contract counterparty.

I'm not sure what that means, and while it's not bad news by any means, its not as if it reflects any acceleration in the underlying demand for $RUL products and services. (That is unless the change of control means a contract is being broken and that's the break fee,...but then I'd have thought they might state the negative implication as well. So, I'm wondering what I'm missing here?)

The release makes clear that they had to announce because the event means that current guidance is no longer valid, even though the transaction on its own it not materials. (Is that why, if there is a negative side to it, that element is not being disclosed?)

It will help the y-o-y comparisons look good at the FY results, particularly EPS growth.

From my perspective, today's annoucement doesn't really change anything (apart form the questions it raises for me). $RUL is still well below my valuation, and they are still in the market buying their own shares almost every day (another EPS-driver).

Disc: Held in RL and SM

$RUL quick out of the blocks with their 1Q FY24 Trading update including an upgrade on guidance.

ASX Announcement

Highlights include:

• Q1 TCV from software sales of $13.2m up $8m (154%) from pcp
• ARR from software licence and maintenance at end of Q1 was $56.0m
• Pre-contract, non-cancellable software licence and maintenance revenue to be recognised across future year at end Q1 was $133.4m
• Signed a framework agreement to facilitate future purchases from a Tier 1 global miner, with significant term volumes within this contracted
• Advisory also starting strongly with a lot of work coming from battery and critical minerals sectors
• FY24 revenue upgraded to $107-112m (from $105-110m; FY23 $98.4m)
• Underlying FY24 EBITDA upgraded to $18.5-20.5m (from $17.5-19.5m; FY23 $15.0m)
• FY24 PBT upgraded to $13.5-15.0m (from $12.5-14.0m; FY23 $9.2m)

My Key Take Away

Off to a strong start to FY24; steadily grinding higher.

Disc: Held in RL and SM

The chart below shows that $RUL have resumed their buy backs. Most of the blue dots are buy back announcements, (except the one on 16th July). They stopped buying on 3rd July and after their trading update shares popped up a little. As they've fallen back below $1.65, they have resumed buying at a steady clip of c. 90k per day, with the running total now getting towards 6m shares in this program, or just over 2.5% SOI.

$RUL is one firm I have returned to recently. The top line progress looks good and, depending on the financial result, it is on my short list to increase when the result comes out, or at some reasonable time thereafter.

The point of this post is that the Board still clearly see value at $1.65, whereas earlier we couldn't know what their view really was above $1.50.

Nothing earth-shattering here, but just an observation.

Disc: Held in RL and SM