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#Earnings - Bogans on Parade
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Added 9 months ago

To be clear I'm not sure they are actually bogans and probably not fair to classify them as such - but is entirely meant in jest as this was the most amusing earnings call I have listened to.

It felt that they were doing this somewhat begrudgingly at request of shareholders, but since they were doing it, it they would very much do it in their own way, on their own terms, and try to enjoy themselves.

Highlight for me was, 25 minutes in, one of the senior managers said: "Oh shit, I'm not supposed to be talking about the big deals; Scrub that you didn't hear anything!".

Saying that, it actually felt well prepared and I'm sure nothing was unintentionally let slip.

Note they have not linked the recording of the call directly on their website - but you can still follow the link from the initial announcement to find the recording.

Summary


Software

  • Their software is very expensive so only Tier 1 and 2 miner can afford it. They view a few of their products as, quote, "the de-facto standard" in the space (particularly among the Tier 2 miners). Namely:
  • Operational software (XECUTE) the only software in it space and had become the standard for Tier 2s. Gaining traction among the Tier 1s.
  • Simulate was the standard among OEMs like Hitachi and Komatsu and gaining traction elsewhere. AMT also largely in use by OEMs
  • They believe they are the only enterprise solution - any of their competitors in the space are either internally built systems or separate desktop software
  • They have spent the time to build out what they call their Enterprise Planning Framework - the integration layer that connects all their software - and allows 3rd party integrations as well.
  • Explained the continued 2nd half weight of revenues as legacy software users tend to roll over to the subscriptions at the same time of year (Jan and Feb).


Business Fundamentals

  • Focus on rebuilding the US/Americas business and expect this to become the biggest sector again (did not specify when tho).
  • They got the first sale to Vale, which has been the Tier 1 they haven't been able to get across the line. Expecting further sales here.
  • Churn rate of only 4% of customers (covering 3% of revenue) highlighting the stickiness of their product. They suggested this was mostly due to mine closures as the software was no longer needed - as opposed to loss to competitors
  • Customers wanting to lock in long contract terms: 3-5 years with the larger customers even going to 7 year contracts
  • Stability of their management: 4 senior managers have been there for 10+ years (this was a specific request of share holders to explain/highlight)
  • They are focused on software for mining (and closely related OEMs and consultants) are not interested in adapting their software outside of their core competency.
  • Had good examples of them making major sales of software they had acquired. Mentioning:
  • Environmental Data Vault
  • MinVu
  • Shift manager


Financials and Capital Allocation

  • Gave good explanation (at least in my mind) of the 2 one-off adjustments to the financials and admitted they could have been clearer sooner on the pull forward of the subscription revenue due to the client cancellation.
  • Richard, the CEO, went to some lengths to explain that the client used other pieces of software, but this cancelling was due to the project needing AMT getting cancelled and he was expecting more work to come from that particular client.
  • In relation to their peers (did not specify who they were) they think they are cheap so will continue to buy back shares
  • Would be open to more acquisitions but say there is nothing out there at the moment - they are the "last man standing" in a lot of their niche.
  • R&D to tick down over time. Interesting quote: "The thing with R&D is you have to know when to stop, otherwise the devs will just keep developing."
  • They are getting more requests for bespoke developement (presumably as they start working with bigger players) which they keep the IP of and allows them to get paid for some of the R&D.
  • They have mostly moved to their software to the cloud but still have some remaining (some products) work there.
  • Pricing - Richard gave out these numbers in terms of their software - I am assuming it is the annual cost but that was not clear:
  • Simulate: $120k
  • Scheduler: $500k
  • AMT: $1.3M
  • ?? not sure - am guessing XECUTE: $500k


Advisory


I did not take notes on this part of the call. It is the piece I have the least interest in as:

  • I suspect it is the most cyclical - it is quoted on a project by project basis and as such probably has little recurring revenue
  • Is the least scalable - Advisory/Consultancy is dependent on the quality of the people working in it and usually takes years of experience.

A good chunk, perhaps the bulk, of the advisory was assisting companies to raise financing/capital.

Lastly, another good quote, when asked about possible takeovers, Richard said:

"Nothing to do with me there - we are for sale on the market so what will happen will happen, we'll just keep doing what we do".


What I liked

  • Reaffirmed guidance and pointed their main growth driver (Americas) for the future. Will be something to watch.
  • Seemed down to earth but also confident about their competence in their niche (with good the justification for it).
  • Pragmatic about their use of R&D
  • No mention of AI - they weren't there to sell you on pipe dreams


What I didn't like

  • No mention of AI - They don't seem to want to spend money where they don't see immediate benefit (by immediate, I mean they know they be able to sell it once built). Which is probably a good thing - until a competito with a better product comes along


In general, I thought it was a very good call. The only thing in the back of my mind is maybe they sold me with their slightly brash, slightly over-honest easy going Brisbane ways. I believe they have earned the confidence in their business - but if things slowly start turning against them will they notice or will their confidence turn to hubris.