We will pass a milestone today in the $RUL buy back program. Based on Friday's report, today will see the cumulative buy back reach $20 million paid for 12.3m shares. There remain a maxiumum of 10.5m to go (22.8m total or 10% total SOI).

About $12m worth has been bought back over the last 12 months.

My reason for posting is that over recent months the behaviour of the buy back has changed. For much of last year, the buyback were more stop-start, dialling up when the SP fell below $1.55 and slowing or even stopping above about $1.60.

Now, with the SP right up at $2.45, they are pretty much buying $50,000 worth every day. On some days, they do buy fewer, and I think these are lower liquiduty days, when there are low volumes with offers close enough to the current SP. But I have been monitoring for a few months and $50,000 days are pretty much the norm. So $1m a month.

The buy-backs are typically 5-6% of average daily total volumes - although this varies hugely. Highest price paid is $2.60.

If the SP was to stay flat at $2.45, and if they keep buying $50,000, then the current announced program would run for another two years. Of course, SP likely to continue to rise, so it would go for even longer. Equally, there may come a point at which they stop as there is no obligation to execute the program announced.

I'm still puzzled why at $2.60, the highest return opportunity the board can see is eating themselves.

In the short term, I'm not complaining - as this level of buyback is continuing to put some support under the SP, and of course will directly drive EPS.

Disc: Held in RL and SM

I find it interesting that $RUL are still buying back shares - albeit low volumes. The program was a non-brainer at $1.40-$1,60, given that they aren't spending a lot on developing the platform,which would be my preference, and are focused on deployment.

I assume momentum traders are at work, with 5 buyers to every seller at the moment.

However, SP has run up hard in the last 4 months, so I wonder what view on value the Board has? Some StrawPeople see further to go. Guess I need to go back and do my own valuation.

Not complaining, just observing.

Disc: Held in RL and SM

Totally don't get the SP reaction on $RUL at open this morning. As @Chagsy reported yesterday evening, the result is fine.

I am still in accumulation mode for $RUL, so will be picking up some "cheap" shares this morning.

Disc: Held in RL and SM

$RUL have just upgraded FY24 guidance,.... for the second time in 6 weeks!

• Revenue to $110-115m, (up from $107-$112m, which was up from $105-$110m)
• Underlying EBITDA to $21.5-23.5m (up from $18.5-$20.5m which was up from $17.5-$19.5m) ....U/L excludes incentives
• PBT to $16.5-$18.0m (up from $13.5-$15.0m, previously $12.5-$14.0m)

The key message is that this is due to a one-off payment of $3.1m, resulting from a change of control at a contract counterparty.

I'm not sure what that means, and while it's not bad news by any means, its not as if it reflects any acceleration in the underlying demand for $RUL products and services. (That is unless the change of control means a contract is being broken and that's the break fee,...but then I'd have thought they might state the negative implication as well. So, I'm wondering what I'm missing here?)

The release makes clear that they had to announce because the event means that current guidance is no longer valid, even though the transaction on its own it not materials. (Is that why, if there is a negative side to it, that element is not being disclosed?)

It will help the y-o-y comparisons look good at the FY results, particularly EPS growth.

From my perspective, today's annoucement doesn't really change anything (apart form the questions it raises for me). $RUL is still well below my valuation, and they are still in the market buying their own shares almost every day (another EPS-driver).

Disc: Held in RL and SM

$RUL quick out of the blocks with their 1Q FY24 Trading update including an upgrade on guidance.

ASX Announcement

Highlights include:

• Q1 TCV from software sales of $13.2m up $8m (154%) from pcp
• ARR from software licence and maintenance at end of Q1 was $56.0m
• Pre-contract, non-cancellable software licence and maintenance revenue to be recognised across future year at end Q1 was $133.4m
• Signed a framework agreement to facilitate future purchases from a Tier 1 global miner, with significant term volumes within this contracted
• Advisory also starting strongly with a lot of work coming from battery and critical minerals sectors
• FY24 revenue upgraded to $107-112m (from $105-110m; FY23 $98.4m)
• Underlying FY24 EBITDA upgraded to $18.5-20.5m (from $17.5-19.5m; FY23 $15.0m)
• FY24 PBT upgraded to $13.5-15.0m (from $12.5-14.0m; FY23 $9.2m)

My Key Take Away

Off to a strong start to FY24; steadily grinding higher.

Disc: Held in RL and SM

The chart below shows that $RUL have resumed their buy backs. Most of the blue dots are buy back announcements, (except the one on 16th July). They stopped buying on 3rd July and after their trading update shares popped up a little. As they've fallen back below $1.65, they have resumed buying at a steady clip of c. 90k per day, with the running total now getting towards 6m shares in this program, or just over 2.5% SOI.

$RUL is one firm I have returned to recently. The top line progress looks good and, depending on the financial result, it is on my short list to increase when the result comes out, or at some reasonable time thereafter.

The point of this post is that the Board still clearly see value at $1.65, whereas earlier we couldn't know what their view really was above $1.50.

Nothing earth-shattering here, but just an observation.

Disc: Held in RL and SM