In a nutshell disapointing cash receipts compared with ACV essentially in line with guidance (slightly under). Managment stating a promising project pipeline / delayed revenue.
The real question is can we trust managment?
- Cash receipts must be big next quarter at least 600k preferably higher or ACV is essentially a made up number.
Thoughts:
- CEO has managed a 100+ employee company and been through the GFC has an accounting background so has the ability and experience to manage costs.
- If ACV stalls or is revised down in the next few months (likely blamed on factors external to the company) I wouldn't be surprised. I would be more impressed if managment put their hand up and simply state that they were being too optimistic with their predictions.
- If cash receipts are less than 600k or there is a material revision or slowdown in ACV over this next 3months I will seriously be questioning whether the thesis is broken.
- I have heard rumours that the company worked in tandem with a fund (canary capital) to spike the share price in early 2018 to release managment performance options. I have no more information about this but if anyone knows more about this I would like to hear it.
For growth companies I like to see the thesis playing out and am happy to average up as in my opinion the risk reduces (despite price appreciation). Unlike value propositions where the risk profile improves as the price drops and increases with the price. I wont be adding any more capital to this company until I see more evidence the story is playing out the way managment would like us to believe.