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#ASX Announcements
Last edited 2 months ago

So the "material contract" was a bit of a whimper, but hey, atleast it wasn't bad news...

6A1197324_3DP.pdf

#Half Review
Added 2 months ago

The Good

  • Partnerships with data capture hardware providers will help reach wider markets and use cases. These companies do tend to have their own software solutions though.

https://www.yellowscan.com/

https://www.teledyneoptech.com/En/Home/

  • Currently pending contract announcement


The Not So Good

  • Customer receipts of $1.33m. Cash receipts are now trending down over the long term.

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  • With operational cash outflows of $1.45m the company's cash balance is now at $1.5m. (plus addition of $1.04m placement). This leaves room for just over a quarter at the current cash burn rate. The directors believe that the cash will be coming, and its been repeated for the last several quarters.
  • 1f9c2f20a860c8192d9ade45bb81021a3bc7c0.jpeg
  • It is now coming down to do or die for Pointerra in this regard. Looking at the expenses, it doesn’t look like there are many areas where spending could be stopped easily, unless they look at cuts to the staff situation.

b2d98b87cc4c98830ce112f2845b79ed7fd054.jpeg

There are also reportedly $1.5m in deferred payments due in H2, which could help the situation.

  • Based on all the positive developments in the slide deck, one would think that the company is kicking goals. Alot of the statements sound good, but it is hard to quantify anything from the updates, and historically they have not translated to revenue growth.
  • It already has been discussed heavily here, but failing to meet ASX requirements for trading halt / suspension highlights some of the issues which have been ongoing for some time.


Watch Status

Deteriorating

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Valuation Status

Increase likelihood of bear case

fa22ec5de752246a8cc6e1470e2e850ebbe4a9.jpeg

*FY24 Annualised numbers

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What To Watch

  • Grid reliance programs are set to restart in CY24.
  • Engaged in discussions with several new U.S energy companies for support climate change response initiatives. First round of federal funding announced, second round is open

https://www.energy.gov/gdo/grid-resilience-and-innovation-partnerships-grip-program-projects

  • Negotiating with global engineering company (Jacobs?) delivering a digital twin. If successful this will provide a good case study on application of the portfolio.
  • Further deals with Enel across operating regions outside of Columbia (Carried Over)
  • Amazon start up delayed from December to Q4FY24.
  • Updates to the start of the Entergy program
  • Use of the pointerra platform by Gridvision

https://gridvision.com.au/

  • Results from pipeline inspection trials - 500km gas pipeline - Working with several partners, this could be the start of a new growth vertical.
  • Digital Twin integration from construction with an Australian Oil and Gas company. It would be good to get more detail on how they are executing on this.
  • Next generation point cloud data format now completed testing and rollout during Q3.
  • Cash flow + and EBITDA + still reported as attainable in FY24. 


#Additional Observations : H1 F
Added 2 months ago

With the release of the H1 Results after the close on Friday, I did a 'snapshot' analysis on those metrics (see my previous post) which displays progress (or lack thereof) during the period, this intended to highlight the strength of 'carry' into the second Half. The NAV plunging to more than - AUD 3m (Balance Sheet Insolvency) coupled with the Auditors Report coverage on the Company's ability to continue to operate as a Going Concern constitute a sobering thought which cannot be dismissed. The Deferred Revenue and Receivables numbers as at 31 Dec hardly inspire and the AUD 2 m shortfall when comparing Receivables and Payables number all suggests the squeeze is set to continue. The AUD 100k decline in Payables is not material.

I have subsequently gone through the narrative + numbers in more detail and can comment as follows :

  • My comment on the Company returning to Positive Operating Cash Flow in H2 was incorrect. Whilst this is certainly implied, the Company said..." H2 FY24 offers the opportunity to showcase the capability with a view to the delivery of a POSITIVE H2 EARNINGS result for the Company." This becomes a message on the Income Statement Revenue) opposed to the Balance sheet (Cash). Also a huge uptick in terms of aspiration.
  • The narrative clearly states that the program delays are resolved and the Utility spend is coming back. This coincides with the fact in the USA, the financial year runs January to December. So Utilities are cashed up interms of Budgetry spend. Tax credits will be flowing towards Utilities from the Fed's Infrastructure USD 1.25 TRILLION Infrastructure Resiliency & new Climate Change intergrations. Remember Data Capture & Analytics will feature as a 'front end' activity in any plan in support of prioritizing work.
  • Right now, the ASX have suspended Pointerra regarding an announcement on a 'Material Contract Award'. Amazon roll-out is planned for Q4 FY 24.
  • Then, the Company have advised that during the Half Year, spend by existing Customers grew across Pointerra's target market sectors with the award of multiple new contracts with Existing and New Customers. So, do we have a new pipiline of growth across the non Utiliy verticals.
  • Building on the above, they report that the Company continues to EXECUTE on it's Strategy in both Mining and Oil & Gas Sectors, focusing on the use of Pointerra3D to support Capex, Operations & Maintenance with an Australian Miner. Implies awarded work in progress IMO.


If we go back to the key message in the H1 Financials. " The Recorded Revenue & Customer Receipts were well below Company expectations due to previously communicated program delays with KEY US Energy Utility Companies, which impacted the Company's Invoicing and Cash collection, ALL OF WHICH are expected to resolve during H2 FY24.

In closing we have felt the pain of the pause in buying by the US Utities. If they are back, Revenues will ramp USD 10m / year based on FY 22 numbers, Then add the Entergy deal conservatively worth USD 7 m a year PLUS

  • PLUS Amazon
  • PLUS further participation in Fed's USD 1.25 TRILLION Infrastructure Resilliency Program
  • PLUS growth ex numerous new Partnerships
  • PLUS new momentum in other verticals
  • PLUS new geographies


Having done the Research on the process being adopted by Utilities to embrace the ginormous USA Infrastructure andClimate Change agenda + validating that the 'Pause' is real, I am staying the course on this one. Can reassess with the ASXapproval 'material contract' announcement, hopefully this week, the Q3 4c (end April), the Q4 4c (end July), the FY 2024 Financials and if all fails, a Banya Software takeover offer where Ian & Team remain involved in the Business and we shareholders get offered x cents per share.

RobW

#H1 FY24 Financials
Added 2 months ago

Despite still being in an ASX Suspension Period pending resolve on an issue over an announcement regarding a 'Material' Contract, the Company released their Half Year results after the market closed.

Herewith a copy of my Hot Copper post which provides some early observations.....

The Half Year Financials were never going to be pretty. The Company is essentially in what they call Balance Sheet Insolvency. Whilst this is different to trading Insolvent (where you cannot TIMEOUSLY fulfil your obligations in terms of Liabilities),the underlying comparisons over the last 6 months do not point to an improving situation. 

Negative NAV ...extends from AUD 1.581m to AUD 3.207m

Receivables... down from AUD 2.723m to AUD 0.606m (compared to Trade&Payables of AUD2.518m)

Deferred Revenue ...down from AUD 2.712m to AUD 2.270m. Note : A portion of this may be for Advanced Payments and therefore not Accessable.

And finally, the only 'small' positive

Trade & Other Payables .... down (less than previous) from AUD 2.615m to AUD 2.518m


Lots to digest in the report, but the above IMO points to the urgent need for a capital injection. CR, loan or if Directors stump up. Debtor Factoring... not much to work with.

The Company talk of a cash flow positive H2. Had they used the ' Changes since 31 Dec. comment section' to provide some numbers on Cash Receipts during Jan & Feb or booked Revenue since 1 Jan, may have supported their stated confidence on a rebound. But not to be, Just the confirmation of the AUD 1m placement to an original Founder. Helps but not enough to fix the above.

Next 4 months crucial IMO.

Rokewa

#ASX Suspension
Added 2 months ago

ASX have suspended Pointerra for not responding regarding details / content of 'a material contract award' announcement which justified their trading halt on the 26th. Announcement was not forthcoming this am and the ASX challenge was yesterday (27th). Welcome the fact that the ASX are all over this. Time for Ian to realise Pointerra is a listed Company and non compliance has consequences. Recent placement of 13 m shares at 8 cents (90% premium to the market price ??)

All said, the probability of Pointerra delisting and going the Banya Software route is up a notch.

Let's see how things unfold. H1 FY 24 results due by COB Thursday.

RobW

#Partnership
Last edited 3 months ago

Partnership with Emesent confirmed by Emesent. This is good news, they have a good grip on Autonomous flight lidar solutions and are quite large in the mining industry around the world.


Emesent are also out of Brisbane a good Australian success story.



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#ASX Announcements
Added 3 months ago

Pointerra have updated the market this morning after appointing a strategic reseller for the Middle East region -- specifically to 'resell and implement the Pointerra 3D Digital Twin Platform".

With an initial term of 2 years, the agreement does not contain any minimum sales or revenue targets. It currently isn't material and it is not possible to currently quantify any revenue impact for the company. The update is more noise and unnecessary of a release to the market.

My take: this is likely another classic 'must be seen to be doing something' announcement to the market before releasing another set of subpar results.

Disc: NOT HELD

#Quarterly Review
Added 6 months ago

Announcement

*Includes Notes from Strawman Meeting

The Good

  • Enel Columbia contract shows interest in Pointerra platform outside of the U.S utility companies. Although the $312k per year value is not material at this point, there is room for scope growth once a digital twin is developed and used for network Analytics. This is unlikely to happen until FY25. The other significant upside of this contract is that Enel operates across 29 countries, so there is potential for further contracts within the company.

https://www.enel.com/company/our-commitment

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  • The Emersent and Carbonix deals are not material, however it embeds Pointerra Core into a wider range of customers who use Emersent and Carbonix for data capture. In the meeting Ian indicated that customers were pushing for this partnership. 


The Not So Good

  • Major customer and diversification risks have become evident over the past several quarters where ongoing issues and delays from a few significant contracts have led to cash receipts 60%  (See @mikebrisy charts for clearer detail on cash flows ) of what they were in Q1FY23. Ian highlighted this in the meeting and is working to broaden the customer base. The risk I see here is that Pointerra starts to stretch itself too far and loses any of the advantages that they have in the market.

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  • Cash balance of $2.8m. Expenses didn’t increase significantly over the quarter, but staff costs are at the heights they have been. These have been historically higher in Q1, so potentially could come back in Q2.
  • Amazon program which was material enough to warrant announcements was put on hold without market updates


Watch Status

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What To Watch

  • Further deals with Enel across operating regions outside of Columbia
  • Amazon set to start up their program again in December. There wasn’t any indication on how far this progressed before it was put on hold, 


NVIDA also appears to be working in this space with Amazon, but looks to be more oriented towards design and work flow.

https://docs.omniverse.nvidia.com/digital-twins/latest/warehouse-digital-twins/use-cases.html 


  • Potential further partnership announcements in the works in the data capture space
  • The Entergy program could have significant impacts on FY24 revenue depending of the scale of roll-out and date of commencement.
  • Tier 1 miner going from mine site level to 45 sites globally and potentially seven figure ARR contract. If this is implemented 
  • Growth in Road, Rail, Water, Oil & Gas in Australia. After North America business review, sales resources to focus on similar wider sectors to help diversify the business streams.
  • The company also views ports and airports (U.S and Australia) as material growth opportunities over the coming year.
  • Next generation point cloud data format is entering testing.
  • Lots of talk about ARR. Watch to see when this is reported going forward and how consistent it is.
  • Ian seems to think cash flow + and EBITDA + are both attainable in FY24. Numbers will need to improve on what came out in Q1
  • Ian mentioned the names of Encore, Duke, Dominion, National Grid as potential utility customers in the pipeline.


From a quick scan of the websites it looks like National Grid could be the closest.


National Grid

https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/engineering-innovation-stories/innovative-and-futuristic-technologies-improving-our-electricity-networks



Dominion

https://www.dominionenergy.com/our-stories/five-ways-we-use-drones


Duke

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ID1AF0AQdeo

#CEO Interview
stale
Added 6 months ago

Curious as to what others thought of the meeting today.

On one hand, I can totally take Ian at face value:

The company was growing rapidly, funded by extremely supportive capital markets and they had a monster opportunity ahead of them... and then, with the big deals concentrated in a specific geography/sector, their giant US counterparties pulled back on all CAPEX as they got whacked with higher rates and constrained by capped pricing.

So 3DP went from (arguably realistically) expecting $3-4m in quarterly cash flows, to finding that they didn't even have enough to fund costs and ongoing development. In short, the world changed on them before they could hit sustainable profitability and are now faced with the challenge of funding operations and growth, but with an ever shrinking balance sheet.

Importantly, according to Ian, these projects have not gone away, they were suspended instead of cancelled, and are expected to resume in the coming months. To such an extent that Ian seems to think they can deliver CF and EBITDA +'ve results for FY24.

If true, shares are probably extremely cheap. We'll see a confluence of revenue booked in one of these quarters which will prompt a material re-rate as the growth narrative is once again seen as realistic.

On the other hand...

Regardless of the external operating environment, the company has scored some big home goals in over-promising, cancelling a core reported metric and poorly executing a capital raise. Rightly or wrongly, that's done a lot to undermine trust. And trust is everything here.

Ian talks a good game, but until we see evidence of a turnaround, it's easy to take the assertions as wishful thinking. Even if the general nature of the situation is as Ian describes, there's still the potential for big clients to delay further, or renegotiate better terms. And there's not much spare cash left at this stage either..

I'd really like to give the company the benefit of the doubt, but cannot in good conscience add to my (now relatively tiny) position until we see more clarity and progress in the reported financials.


#September Quarter FY24 Update
stale
Added 6 months ago

An encouraging update, although quite vague from a financial standpoint.

New commercial agreements announced, one with an initial US$312k pa subscription, and all with expansion potential.

New Business Development hires to shorten sales cycles and land 7-figure contracts, and Amazon digital twin program for its distribution centres due to restart in December.

Will look to get some more detail when we speak with Ian tomorrow.

#SPP Result
stale
Added 7 months ago

Well, this latest raise was an underwhelming affair.

Arguably, it all started on July 28 with a bullish announcement that Pointerra's utility partners were selected for a US$15b grid resilience CAPEX program. The detail was vague, but hinted at a significant revenue opportunity, and shares duly rose -- in fact, they more than doubled at one point (briefly).

A few days later the company's 4th quarter announcement showed a disappointing cash inflow, but this was explained as a timing issue with much of the shortfall received in July. The company said it "continues to self-fund organic growth". The ACV metric was again notably absent.

Two weeks later, Pointerra revealed it had raised $2m via an institutional placement at 12c per share (a 13% discount to the recent volume weighted trading price, but a 25% premium to where shares were at prior to July 28). Veritas, the lead manager for the raise, was paid $120k, or 6% of the total raised.

Shareholders were offered the same deal to raise a further $1.5m, but by this stage shares had returned to sub-10c, meaning any uptake would be at a 20%-odd premium to what you could get on market. Unsurprisingly, very few shareholders took up the offer, which raised just $195k, or 13% of the targeted total. Frankly, it's amazing they raised anything!

All told, the capital raised cost 6% in fees and a 2.8% dilution to existing shareholders. And all for a relative pittance in cash -- an amount that would have barely covered the FY23 cash burn.

I've lined up a meeting with Ian for the 31st of this month, but I assume the rationale will be they just needed a bit to help accelerate some growth and will be self-funded from here ("cross my heart and hope to die, stick a needle in my eye")

To be fair, they are dealing with big customers and project delays aren't uncommon for large CAPEX programs. They are a tiny company desperately trying to scale while continuing to invest in their product and resourcing. So maybe what we're dealing with here, and in other outcomes that fell short of expectations, is just a bit of over-exuberance from management, but which they genuinely feel is well founded.

But the fact is that they have damaged their reputation -- and that will take a long time to rebuild.

The lesson here for management is that it's usually best to under-promise and over-deliver. When you make bold claims you really just create a rod for your back, imo.

#Request for meeting
stale
Added 8 months ago

@Strawman

Hi Andrew,

Any chance of a meeting with Pointerra? It has been ~1 year since you last met them.

I realise that the last year has been a disappointment, but I am trying to work whether I sell. I am particularly interested in future revenue, noting that last year was heading downwards.

42bba90a0220daf7b51de16e4a0ab830a27f77.png

Ideas for questions are:

Q. Future revenue expectations

Q. Traction in the US market? Has this fallen away?

Q. When do they expect to raise money from shareholders again? [ Boom!]

Q. Can they report customer retention rates?

Q. Are they still predicting cash flow positive? When?


I note that they have said they will not report ACV anymore, so not personally interested in asking that.


Thanks.

#Q4 FY23 4C
stale
Added 9 months ago

The market mood has really shifted for the better with Pointerra of late -- and not without some justification. But the latest 4C is somewhat lacking in my opinion.

Operating cash flow was significantly negative for the quarter (down $1.8m) with just $800k in customer cash receipts. That compares to cash receipts of $3.25m in prior quarter. This was apparently due to invoicing delays, and in July $1.8m has since been collected.

So hopefully just a timing issue, and the company says "the core business operation continues to self-fund organic growth across the business in Australia and the US."

Let's hope so -- there's less than $1.5m left in the bank.

The ACV chart -- long highlighted by the business -- was again absent. I think that's very poor form to simply abandon this metric.

Lots of fluff in the announcement and very little detail.

#silentquarter
stale
Added 10 months ago

Trying to process how I feel about Pointerra’s radio silence in the last quarter.

On one hand, stopping a big client from churning is hardly worthy of an ASX release. This may be especially true for Ian who seems to have a love/hate relationship with the ASX’s announcement rules (he mentions this often in interviews).

On the other, the share price’s sabotage could have gotten leadership to be a little more promotional about any noteworthy progress made in the quarter. 

That a large client churned isn’t cause for the thesis to break for me. Clients churn even from good software, often with valid excuses on their end (we got bought out, we’re consolidating, CIO’s gone mad, etc…) 

But that a large client’s churned with growth otherwise completely stalled for one full year, with little progress elsewhere isn’t good. 

I’d love Pointerra to take this as an opportunity to step up their game in onboarding clients faster (like much faster), and also step up their game in how they report. I’d like them to lose the ACV metric and adopt a more standard ARR metric reflecting live use of software to date. 

Anyway, rant over, not much longer to wait now. If they report on the last business day of the month as they do normally, this would be the 28th.

Two weeks to go lads. 

#Quarterly Review
stale
Added 12 months ago

The Good

  • Return to cash flow positive for the quarter. This has assisted in the precarious cash balance position. This was only $516k free cash flow for the quarter, but this has boosted the overall cash position to $3.2m. Management has flagged that this will continue into the future.



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  • Operating expenses kept steady for the quarter with the exception of R&D, which jumped up on previous quarters. R&D allocations represent staff salaries who are focused 100% on R&D, so when combined back with staff costs, the totals across these two categories is similar to Q1. What potentially could be inferred from the ratio of these two costs could be the number of customers who are in an implementation stage vs ongoing product development. As others have indicated, due to the new exec hires, staff costs are likely to increase over future quarters.


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The Not So Good

  • ACV update continues to be vague. A range of USD$19.7m to USD$22.1m has been provided as an indication of the current range. The statement “Pointerra continues to add new customers..” doesn’t align well with this range as ACV was USD$20.1m back in October 2022. There is no context provided around these statements of customer wins and additions. Some kind of metrics to measure these would be a good way to gauge the progress of each sector as the reported segments in the half year and full year reports are only Australia & U.S
  • Once again there is no Net Revenue Retention metric update, which was reported in October 2022 then subsequently dropped from the updates.


What To Watch

  • PointFuse beta testing was carried out as previously forecast. Full release integration to occur in Q4.
  • The trials of the Emesent integration for Q3 sounded successful, with management stating “ Integration and partnership with Emesent’s Hovermap driving growth for both companies…”
  • DoD contract announcement postponed until the end of May 2023.
  • No mention of packaged utility solution rollout previously scheduled for Q3 release.
  • Potential further expansion of Amazon contract as Pointerra continues rollout.
  • Wide range posted for impact to ACV from ongoing contract negotiations ~ $2.4m spread. How this negotiation ends up and how 3DP informs the market of the outcome will be telling of the “mission critical” status of the software. The bull case for this delay is that Pointerra are holding out on a position to set a benchmark for ongoing future deals. The other side of that coin is that the utilities don’t place the same value on the platform as Pointerra thinks it provides them.
#Divestment Decision
stale
Added one year ago

Others have commented on today's news. I'll not repeat their content, buy add my assessment and decision.

The improvement in cashflow is good; however, $3.3m is still lower than two quarters ago. In a firm that needs to be growing strongly to justify its (albeit beaten down) valuation, it is hardly a need for celebration. I’m with @Noddy74 – I don’t share the market’s enthusiasm today. Perhaps the SP reaction was relief that the cash result wasn’t worse?

Cash receipts of $3.3m mean that the free cash surplus is likely to be thin, although it is good to hear that Ian believes this will be sustained going forward (although he now also has some new senior hires to pay.)

However, I’m still bothered by the unwillingness to give an ACV update. That means that without the contract renewal agreed, it looks bad. And as I’ve said before, I don’t trust management who only report discretionary metrics when they make them look good. The last entry in my spreadsheet was $20.1m in Oct-2022 up from $18.2m in Jun-22. So we are coming up to the anniversary and it sounds like the dial might not have moved much. Moreover, the result appears to be very dependent on a single customer. In the absence of newsflow of other large contracts, that sounds like an ongoing concentration risk.

Again, as @Noddy74 writes, if this product is so mission critical, why is the renegotiation of the contract taking so long?

I am pleased the CFO role has finally been filled. However, the musical chairs on the "Chief Growth Officers" roles - not one role but two (in a company that makes total annual revenues of the order of only $10m) continues to signal that things are not working to Ian's satisfaction on the customer wins front.

For me, It is time to look at the thesis. I originally held 3DP for three reasons:

• Leading tech platform for spatial data management with a large range of applications in multiple verticals

• Strong ACV and revenue growth

• Close to the inflection point, with potentially strong economics emerging

Looking back over the last 8Qs (and I appreciate I should wait for the 4C to fully update this straw, and therefore may prove to be premature):

• Cost growth has generally been ahead of or at least in step with growth in receipts

• We are still hovering around the inflection point. We first saw positive free cash flow in Sep. 2019. and have flirted with it on 3-4 occasions over the last 3.5 years

• ACV growth is now a question-mark

• Cash reserves are low

• Newsflow on new contracts / new customers has not been strong

Importantly, as @Noddy’s analysis shows, the operating economics are becoming a question-mark too, with the gap between ACV growth and growth in receipts expanding. What’s going on here? Are customers taking longer to use the product than anticipated? Is there drag in deploying it/customising it in each application?

I appreciate that it can take a long time to deliver “overnight success”. However, I’ve decided to move to the sideline with $3DP until the proposition becomes clearer. I recognise that in so doing I am crystallising a loss and if I buy back in in future, that I’ll give up the ground between maybe $0.105 (my sale price) and $0.20 or something similar. 

However, for me, in these higher risk small caps that are yet to become cash generative, the thesis requires strong revenue growth above cost growth. Taking the high risk of a cash burning proposition relies on the momentum of the top line growth and the emerging economics, and all that entails in terms of positive revenue retention and new customer wins. I’ve now gone 5 or 6 Q’s where I haven’t been convinced that $3DP is delivering this. The ACV reporting holdout is the final straw.

I have divested my position in $3DP (IRL and SM).

Disc: No longer held


#Trading and ACV update - or no
stale
Added one year ago

The market seems to be a lot more excited about Pointerra's trading update than I am. The ACV update is not really an update at all except to say that previously flagged renewal negotiations are still ongoing. It seems like all will be revealed at an update on 28 April 2023. Hopefully that is the case.

They report a 'rebound' in cash receipts. It is true that at $3.3m it's the second highest quarter they've had for receipts. The problem is that cash in is not keeping pace with previously reported trailing ACV - not even nearly. If you track trailing 12-month cash in, it used to trail reported ACV from about 12 months prior. Not great but if you knew that was what to expect you could probably live with it. In late 2021 that started to slip and it was taking up to 18 months to convert ACV to cash. In today's update an 18-month trail seems like the good old days as trailing 12-month cash receipts doesn't even keep pace with the ACV from two years ago!

They describe their suite as a must-have platform. As difficult as it might be to deal with some of their US customers, I can't get my head around why they'd not pay for mission critical software nor take so long to renew.

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[Not held]


#ACV v Cash Flow
stale
Last edited one year ago

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Musings on the already mentioned ACV and Cash receipts.

At Sep22 the light blue bar matches the Dark blue bar from Jun2. Hence Cash Receipts (green bar) is closely resembling the 15m trailing ACV per Q (Light Blue) = Count 5 bars across from one to the other!

If this trend continues, next Q indicates approx. 4.2m in cash receipts; irrespective of additional payments - Storm response?. Interestingly to note that Dec21 Cash receipts were 800k cash flow positive for that Q; wonder if that indicates a lumpy utility payment coming up.

More importantly ... As indicated by the Dark Blue bars - Commencing from Jun21 onwards, Cash receipts will add approx. 700k in aud each Q as a result of the increasing ACV of 2m usd Q on Q. That said I have always wondered if the ACV is padded because of the consistent 2m ACV usd per Q add. But if the cash receipts match the trailing 15m ACV then does the shoe fit???

If 700k is added each Q from here, can Ian spend that much?


PS. ACV in the chart is aud at 0.70 exchange rate

#ACV update
stale
Added 2 years ago

Some great commentary already. Similar to others, I think this is a cracker of an update. In terms of my investment thesis -- consistent growth over a long period of time without investing huge sums of money to chase said growth -- everything appears in order here. And similar to you @mikebrisy, my confidence continues to grow, as Pointerra does the same. 

@PinchOfSalt touched on the currency conversion tailwinds at play here. We obviously saw yesterday's 4C update provided in AUD, but when you consider ACV being reported in USD -- totalling more than $US20m -- extrapolate these payments out over the next year or two and you have some serious cash being added to Pointerra's pockets. 

But there is another key bull case argument, which has already been touched on by @mikebrisy, that deserves further highlighting: net revenue retention (NRR). A NRR of 172% YoY is insane. The investment case becomes a different proposition when customers are not only using Pointerra's software, but slowly expanding their offering over a timeframe -- whatever this may be. Your target audience expands from not only new customers, but those already using Pointerra's platform. 

To digress slightly, from all accounts, Pointerra have really hit the ground running with their recent work with FPL during Hurricane Ian. I am going to go out on a limb here and say this is one of the deals we will look back on in five years time and remark how it was company changing. Not only is the market a significant one for 3DP to enter -- think about the countries, towns and municipalities that are impacted by serious weather events, the list is exhaustive and only continues to grow -- but they are starting to enter 'mission critical' status when you are helping agencies respond to natural disasters. The capability of Pointerra3D to ingest data in real time shouldn't be underestimated. Ian mentioned in the recent chat with us that other agencies, similar to FPL, are starting to reach out and ask how 3DP can assist them. I am not surprised. That is powerful 'word of mouth' marketing that doesn't cost Pointerra a cent. But you are also starting to interact with reputable clients that have extensive budgets and a duty of care to the societies they service. Anyone here that has worked in crisis environments -- whether they be emergency response or coordination of resources -- understands the importance of mission critical software. When it genuinely helps the response to life threatening events, it becomes worth its weight in gold.

The main risk here for Pointerra -- who are still relatively small and struggle to attract high-quality sales staff -- is that they spread themselves too thin across multiple verticals/industries. It isn't uncommon to see a strategy like this overwhelm a business and ultimately backfire. With that in mind, their growth since FY20 has been nothing short of remarkable.

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All in all, I am really happy with their progress and remain a happy shareholder. I am still looking to add to my holding around the 20c level and they are high up my list to increase my exposure to.