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Last edited 3 years ago
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#Financials
stale
Added 3 years ago

I can understand why 3DP waited until after the market closed after the end of the month do dump this on us. And what a smelly dump it is.

I had forecast revenue for the half to be circa $8.5M based on earlier ACV numbers finally getting delivered. Last half year (not PCP) was about $6.5M so it didn't seem an unreasonable jump given the contacts in hand. Instead, recognised revenue declined more than 40%. That's a massive step backwards for a SaaS company. We are not talking cash or invoices here, this is what they earned by delivering services in the six months to Dec.

Receipts from customers was a more respectable $5.25M. How can that be? The clue is in the deferred revenue of $1.05M. That's a million bucks invoiced for services not yet delivered. Whether it has been banked or not is hard to tell but the cash flow indicates that it probably has.

Others have commented on the lack of a reported ACV number. Most likely it has been revised down but to me it was never more than a pipeline number. More of a pipedream number really.

More worrying is the comment on working capital, " As at balance date, the Group had a working capital deficit of $372,231 (30 June 2022: surplus of $3,116,457) ". Although the deficit includes the deferred revenue, they can't go on at this rate. Going to need some big customers to pay cash up front or else rase some funds another way.

SP will get hammered - not a great time to raise equity. Hopefully they can find a paddle and trade out of shit creek.

#ACV update
stale
Last edited 3 years ago

ACV Update is great.

In USD it's up 10% QoQ and 72% YoY. That's a phenomenal growth rate!

When looked at in AUD with the falling dollar, it's even better. I converted last quarter at 70c to $26M and this quarter at 63c to $32M - roughly 23% QoQ! And the YoY growth is close to 100% in AUD.

Their text adds some colour but I don't pay too much attention to that.

Overall, well on track to double revenue (in AUD) from ~$10M last FY to $20M+ this FY. And I expect this with neutral cash flow - self-funding growth!

#Financials
stale
Last edited 3 years ago

FY23Q1 is an average 4C to my mind. They didn't update the ACV number, which is a worry. It makes me think that they didn't add much in the quarter and don't want to tell us.

Receipts from customers, $3.4M, is a record but given last quarter's invoicing was $4.2M and much was unpaid, it is mainly timing effects, and I don't hold any hope of this being repeated next quarter.

Cash cost were up a further 6% on top of last quarter's massive jump. This could be just exchange rate though since they haven't added any staff.

Net operating C/F of $213k will likely turn negative again next quarter.

Updated from "unimpressive" to "average" after seeing some shockers around the traps. I actually like 3DP.

#Financials
stale
Last edited 3 years ago

Good final report. Here are some half-on-half comparisons.

  • H1 H2 ($M)
  • 3.2 6.5 Revenue doubled!
  • 0.1 0.6 Other income - added over $500k in H2 from R&D
  • 0.5 0.5 Cost of service flat! Economies of scale?
  • 1.7 4.4 Admin costs - more than double. Bigger sales team?
  • 0.1 0.1 Marketing - actually decreased slightly H/H
  • 1.2 0.2 R&D - down and full year employee R&D cost was less than H1 ?!
  • 0.5 1.2 Other expense up - bad debts of $437k and Travel $475


What worries me is the jump in Trade and other Receivables to $3.5M (of which Trade Receivables are $2.7M) - that's a big chunk of the sales since December. Equals a DSO of 76 days on the half yearly number. Not much in the aged debtors so there must be some big sales invoiced at the end of the quarter. Also, the $792k R&D credit receivable. If this gets all gets paid, next 4C will be great!

But bad debts are significant for the full year. Given how much was likely invoiced towards year end, $437k is a huge amount to write off. As a thought experiment, subtract that from revenue (instead of offsetting in expenses) and you get slower growth and higher margin. Presumably they'll subtract this from their ACV and with better credit control, a profit is possible. Best case is that some of these provisions get paid and they can write it back.

Also interesting that they've written off the full intangible amount from the Airovant acquisition, $1.3M. That's a one-off.

Originally written from the preliminary final report and now updated after looking at the full annual report.

#ACV update
stale
Added 3 years ago

As pointed out by others, ACV doesn't equate to invoicing, cash or recognised revenue. Has anyone seen a 3DP contract in the wild? If not, here's my guess.

The ACV is the total of a bunch of components: features, user licences, storage, CPU use and bandwidth. ACV is the expected (or maximum) cost once the customer gets up to speed: all data loaded, all users set up, all features in use etc. It seems like this takes at least 12 months. Then (probably) the customer is invoiced in arrears (monthly or quarterly) and on 30-day terms and probably pay 45 days later. So there's a massive lag from ACV to cash.  It’s a forward indicator.

What will be much more revealing is the recognised revenue in the annual report. They should be able to recognise revenue for services delivered, whether invoiced or not, so that's a real measure.

The other things that I'll look at closely are the aged debtors and doubtful debts. Are customer paying and how slowly? As interest rates rise, there's an incentive to delay payment so this should get worse. And public companies can make their cash flow statement look better by not paying their bills (assuming that they are able to pay).

Back to ACV - this can only be compared to itself, and this quarter showed good, albeit slowing, growth.  Not surprised the SP has retreated a little.

#4C Result
stale
Added 4 years ago

Can someone explain 3DP's financials. @Hogajo help me out here. Going back in time they have claimed ACV (in USD) of $9.8M three quarters ago, $11.7M two quarters ago and $14.4M three months back yet the current 4C shows a mere $2.3M (in AUD) of receipts from customers. Contracts in the bag 9 months ago converted to AUD and divided by 4 should give 3.4M $A this quarter.) How long do these babies take to implement?

I just don't understand. It's not like they've invoiced in advance (which would show a spike in receipts earlier). When will today's touted $16.3M ACV turn into $5.5M AUD in reciepts?

I really want to believe the story. This is the #1 stock on Strawman. Can someone please help.

#Financials
stale
Added 4 years ago

Half yearly results are out and I'm not impressed. Yes, the revenue growth rate is high, but the cost growth rate is higher!

This is meant to be a high margin business where incremental sales are very profitable. It seems not.

Costs are up 117% on PCP. SaaS shouldn't be seasonal so I compared this half the the second half of FY21 (by subtracting out the first half). On my spreadsheet, revenue is up 30% and costs are up 60% on 21H2. That's a bad trend.

Cash flow looks to be improving and was positive in the last 4C but still negative for the half. One reason for this is the "share based payment expense of about $1M (Airovant). That's non-cash and the cost to shareholders will reduce with a sliding share price. Some silver lining there.

Trade receivables are also increasing - now $989k equivalent to 57 days sales outstanding. That seems a lot for a SaaS company and is up from PCP of 38 DSO.  Are they having trouble collecting? Issuing invoices without a PO?

There's not a lot to like about this report but they have a sensible provision for doubtful debts and their numbers for capitalising development look reasonable - they actually amortised more of than they built, thanks to Airovant acquisition - another non-cash expense.

Let's see if they can string together a few quarters of positive operating cash flow.