Company Report
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#30
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-6.0% pa
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##AGM
Added 4 months ago

The market seems to like what came out of the AGM.

Some positive highlights after skimming the ASX announcement: Technology revenue grew by 37% to $32.9m and the gross margin is impressive at 85%. Tech revenue now accounts for 50% of total revenue. Goal of 80% tech revenue by the end of 2025. Some of the hypergrowth US tech stocks I hold can't match this and their P\S ratio are eye-watering compared to AI-Media.

There's an ambitious but clear path to growth with a goal of $60m EBITDA in 5 years (Currently $4m).

  • Strong momentum in Europe with an ITV partnership in the UK and 100 plus encoders sold across 14 countries which they describe as a "moat" as the encoder inserts itself into the customers' workflow (55 sold last year across 3 countries).
  • LEXI 3 now surpassing human captioning accuracy and looking at the voice market that's supposedly a TAM of $69b vs $2b for captioning (Always a bit skeptical about TAM but you'd think voice is several times larger at least).


There's definitely execution risk here although CEO Tony Abrahams thinks this is priced in already in the share price (bold statement, but anyway). They'd like to grow the Tech revenue by 35% annually over the next 5 years so there's no lack of ambition. Both R&D ($7m-$8m) and sales and marketing ($13m-$16m) costs have grown but not unreasonably so I think.

Certainly lots of potential, good strategic vision and outline. At the same time there are many things to watch out for along the way as the execution and other risks are by no means small. An EBITDA of $60m in FY2029 would make today's market cap of $150m seem very reasonable no matter how you choose to discount that back. Even with some inevitable setbacks between now and then you can easily find ways of justifying today's price I think.

The Strawman interview with the CEO a few months back was really great and informative so do yourself a favour and watch that if you're interested in the business