Company Report
Last edited 3 years ago
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Added 3 years ago

Good lord -- i agree @Maaxweell , that's a brutal reaction!

As recently as March 23 they were calling for underlying EBITDA to be between $27-30m (see slide 27 here), and today they narrowed that to between $27-28m (see here). At the midpoints, that a reduction in guidance of 3.5%.

Sure, it's not great news, but does it make the business 24% less valuable!? Especially with a 42% YoY lift in total services and increased market share (in a largely mature market).

I suspect it is in part due to the fact that shares were priced for particularly strong growth, and the market is presently in no mood for anything that undermines such expectations -- even just a little.

There was also an 18% lift in the CVC expense, and the company seems to be facing difficulty in recruiting staff (which may point to higher wage costs going forward?).

I've not looked closely before, but on some rough numbers: Adding in OTW, you have a business on a EBITDA run rate of roughly $60m. Prior to today, the business was valued at about 22x that (probably around 50x underlying earnings). After the drop, the business is on an EBITDA multiple roughly 17x. Let's call that a forward PE (accounting for a FY contribution from OTW) of roughly 34.

With some threat to margins and the business needing to win share of incumbents to grow, perhaps that's reasonable? Could this be a case of the market simply getting ahead of itself prior to today's very decent update?

I'm not sure. Just throwing out some early thoughts